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1st Editorial Board Meeting

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1st Editorial Board Meeting

Harnessing the Fourth Industrial Revolution for Water

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, September 25, 2018
Abstract in English: 
As part of the Harnessing the Fourth Industrial Revolution for the Earth series, this paper explores the opportunity for advanced technology to help address global water and sanitation challenges. The Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies have the potential to assemble more complete, current and accessible information on water supply and demand. Satellite imagery and other earth observation tools are delivering profound new insights on water supply in parts of the world where conventional ground-based methods to measure water supply are not feasible or practical.
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26
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Challenges to the Future of Gas: unburnable or unaffordable?

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, December 5, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Modelling studies suggest that COP21 targets can be met with global gas demand peaking in the 2030s and declining slowly thereafter. This would qualify gas to be considered a `transition fuel’ to a low carbon economy. However, such an outcome is by no means a foregone conclusion. There are limited numbers of countries outside the OECD which can be expected to afford to pay wholesale (or import) prices of $6-8/MMbtu and above, which are needed to remunerate 2017 delivery costs of large volumes of gas from new pipeline gas or LNG projects. Prices towards the top of (and certainly above) this range are likely to make gas increasingly uncompetitive leading to progressive demand destruction even in OECD countries. The current debate in the gas community is when the `glut’ of LNG will dissipate, and the global supply/demand balance will tighten. The unspoken assumption is that when this happens – generally believed to be around the early/mid 2020s – prices will rise somewhere close to 2011-14 levels, allowing a return to profitability for projects which came on stream since the mid-2010s and allowing new projects to move forward. Should this assumption prove be correct, it will create major problems for the future of gas. The key to gas fulfilling its potential role as a transition fuel up to and beyond 2030, is that it must be delivered to high income markets below $8/MMbtu, and to low income markets below $6/MMbtu (and ideally closer to $5/MMbtu). The major challenge to the future of gas will be to ensure that it does not become (and in many low-income countries remain) unaffordable and/or uncompetitive, long before its emissions make it unburnable.
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53
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Let’s not exaggerate – Southern Gas Corridor prospects to 2030

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, July 30, 2018
Abstract in English: 
A new round of political activity to promote the Southern Gas Corridor from the Caspian to Europe has begun. In February, European energy ministers and supplier nation officials met in Baku. In June, first gas entered the Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) across Turkey, and the first substantial source of supply for the Southern Corridor, the Shah Deniz II project in Azerbaijan, started producing. Shah Deniz II will ramp up to peak output of 16 bcm/year by 2021-22. Europe will then receive around 10 bcm, no more than 2 per cent of its overall demand, via the Southern Corridor, compared to the 10-20 per cent that had been envisaged in Brussels. While political leaders continue to paint the corridor’s prospects in very bright colours, the market dynamics – in the Caspian region itself, in the Caucasus and Turkey, and in Europe – are less promising. Commercial conditions for the Southern Corridor’s success have deteriorated as political support for it has grown. This paper argues that, up to 2030, the corridor will most likely remain an insubstantial contributor to Europe’s gas balance. At best, there may be sufficient gas for a second string of TANAP, but only at the end of the 2020s. The paper considers the potential sources of supply for the Southern Corridor (Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and others including Iran, Kurdistan, and the East Mediterranean); demand and transport issues; and the conditions under which Southern Corridor gas will compete with other supply in the European market.
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30
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Partnerships for the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development - Transformative, Inclusive and Accountable?

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, December 14, 2017
Abstract in English: 
The United Nations (UN) 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development defines Multi-Stakeholder Partnerships (MSPs) as an essential tool for realising the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that were adopted along-side the Agenda. However, prior experience of such partnerships between state and non-state actors (from the private sector and/or civil society) has shown mixed results: significant successes have been marred by too many failures. To what extent do policymakers and other relevant actors integrate these insights into multi-stakeholder partnerships – especially as regards the relevant conditions for success – when calling for and fostering new partnerships for the SDGs? This study presents inter alia the results of a series of interviews with selected international actors – from (1) the United Nations, (2) donors and funders, (3) gov-ernments and (4) private initiatives.
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28
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The future of retail banking: Platforms will increasingly occupy the customer interface

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, August 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The platform economy is revolutionizing the banking sector – technology providers and FinTechs are increasingly occupying the customer interface. Retail banks must reposition themselves: Instead of the mostly universal business model they operate now, they need to decide where their future focus will lie. Will they be relationship expert, product expert or technology provider?
Online platforms reach millions of people, enabling more and more products and services to find their way to the customer. This also applies increasingly to financial products, where platform operators are becoming serious competition for retail banks. Thus, banks face a fundamental decision: Do they position themselves in the future at the customer interface and actively design platforms or should they focus on primarily being product providers? Currently most banks are busy digitalizing their existing business model – without any sign of real innovation.
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28
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New mobility trends: China is driving away from the competition

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, September 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Who will win the battle of new mobility services? Our Automotive Disruption Radar provides new insights Since 2017 we have been charting a concept of mobility in transition with our semi-annual Automotive Disruption Radar (ADR). The current fourth edition confirms the main developments: more and more people think that using a car does not necessarily mean that you have to own one, consumers can increasingly imagine buying a car with electric drive and more and more cities are granting permits to trial autonomous vehicles on their streets. Last but not least, the number of employees in R&D departments around the world working on new mobility concepts and autonomous vehicles is still rising.
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12
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Bike Sharing: Cornerstone of future urban mobility

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, August 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Pedal power is becoming the transport mode of choice for urban dwellers around the globe. Bicycles offer a means of travel that allows people to get to their destination quickly and cheaply, especially in large cities with congested roads. With worldwide sales of bike sharing services forecast to increase to EUR 8 billion by 2021, a veritable race for global supremacy has already begun. Rapid growth, especially in Asia, is fueled by the continued strong demand for cost-effective mobility, largely unregulated market access and massive investment. Private providers have recently mobilized more than USD 3 billion in venture capital to expand not just in China, but globally. Asian market leaders ofo and Mobike (each with 200 million registered users), which, unlike European providers, operate free-floating instead of station-based systems, have been pushing the European market since 2017. The study shows that the bike-sharing market is benefiting from rising global environmental awareness and the common sharing trend, as people are more willing to pay for mobility than for owning a car or a bicycle. In addition, cycling is cheaper than a taxi, ride-hailing or an own car, and more flexible than public transport systems. Because the use of a rental bike can also be easily combined with other means of transport, bike sharing will become an important pillar in a growing urban ecosystem of sharing (car, bicycle, ride-sharing) and mobility services (platforms, apps, aggregators).Despite the promising opportunities offered by the burgeoning bike-sharing market, the rapid pace of growth is not without its pitfalls. Operators are faced with becoming the target of vandalism, or oversupply in certain cities. We predict the market will consolidate in the coming years, with a smaller number of high quality offerings surviving the initial boom to find longer term success.
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28
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Structural Transformation in the OECD - Digitalisation, Deindustrialisation and the Future of Work

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, September 30, 2016
Abstract in English: 
In tandem with the diffusion of computer technologies, labour markets across the OECD have undergone rapid structural transformation. In this paper, we examine i) the impact of technological change on labour market outcomes since the computer revolution of the 1980s, and ii) recent developments in digital technology – including machine learning and robotics – and their potential impacts on the future of work. While it is evident that the composition of the workforce has shifted dramatically over recent decades, in part as a result of technological change, the impacts of digitalisation on the future of jobs are far from certain. On the one hand, accumulating anecdotal evidence shows that the potential scope of automation has expanded beyond routine work, making technological change potentially increasingly labour-saving: according to recent estimates 47 percent of US jobs are susceptible to automation over the forthcoming decades. On the other hand, there is evidence suggesting that digital technologies have not created many new jobs to replace old ones: an upper bound estimate is that around 0.5 percent of the US workforce is employed in digital industries that emerged throughout the 2000s. Nevertheless, at first approximation, there is no evidence to suggest that the computer revolution so far has reduced overall demand for jobs as technologically stagnant sectors of the economy – including health care, government and personal services – continue to create vast employment opportunities. Looking forward, however, we argue that as the potential scope of automation is expanding, many sectors that have been technologically stagnant in the past are likely to become technologically progressive in the future. While we should expect a future surge in productivity as a result, the question of whether gains from increases in productivity will be widely shared depends on policy responses.
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53
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Future Shocks and Shifts: Challenges for the Global Workforce and Skills Development

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, April 24, 2017
Abstract in English: 
This report presents evidence on the expanding scope of automation. After three decades of a secular decline in middle-income jobs, the bulk of low-skilled and low-income workers are now for the first time susceptible to computerization. Meanwhile, skilled jobs remain relatively resilient to recent trends in technology. In particular, workers with extraordinary social and creative skills will still remain in the workforce in 2030.
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34
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Assessing the role of migration in European labour force growth by 2030

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This paper presents the methodology as well as the results of the joint OECD-European Commission project Migration-Demography Database: A monitoring system of the demographic impact of migration and mobility. The objective of the project is to evaluate the contribution of migration to past and future labour market dynamics across EU and OECD countries. After assessing the role of migration over the last five to 10 years in shaping the occupational and educational composition of the labour force, this project looks at the potential contribution of migration to the labour force in a range of alternative scenarios. This paper presents the results from the second part of the project: it focuses on projections over the period 2015-2030, and aims at identifying the drivers of changes in working-age population and active population in European countries, and in particular the role of migration flows.
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38
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