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Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 - The Consequences of Inaction

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Publication date: 
Friday, June 1, 2012
Abstract in English: 
The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 asks “What could the next four decades bring?” Based on joint modelling by the OECD and the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, it looks forward to the year 2050 to ascertain what demographic and economic trends might mean for the environment if humanity does not introduce more ambitious policies to manage natural assets with greater care.

This Outlook focuses on four areas: climate change, biodiversity, water and the health impacts of pollution. These four key environmental challenges were identified by the previous Environmental Outlook to 2030 as “Red light” issues requiring urgent attention (see Chapter 1). It concludes that the prospects are more alarming than the situation described in the previous edition, and that urgent – and holistic – action is needed now to avoid the significant costs and consequences of inaction. Policy makers must take decisions despite uncertainties. The Outlook presents achievable solutions, highlighting the linkages between different environmental issues and some of the challenges and tradeoffs in the face of competing demands.
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353
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Policy Challenges for the Next 50 Years

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Wednesday, July 2, 2014
Abstract in English: 
This paper identifies and analyses some key challenges that OECD and partner economies may face over the coming 50 years if underlying global trends relating to growth, trade, inequality and environmental pressures prevail. For example, global growth is likely to slow and become increasingly dependent on knowledge and technology, while the economic costs of environmental damages will mount. The rising economic importance of knowledge will tend to raise returns to skills, likely leading to further increases in earning inequalities within countries. While increases in pre-tax earnings do not automatically transform into rising income inequality, the ability of governments to cushion this impact may be limited, as rising trade integration and consequent rising mobility of tax bases combined with substantial fiscal pressures may hamper such efforts. The paper discusses to what extent national structural policies can address these and other interlinked challenges, but also points to the growing need for international coordination and cooperation to deal with these issues over the coming 50 years.
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Strategic Transport Infrastructure Needs to 2030

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Monday, February 27, 2012
Abstract in English: 
Transcontinental Infrastructure Needs to 2030/50 explores the long-term opportunities and challenges facing major gateway and transport hub infrastructures -- ports, airports and major rail corridors – in the coming decades. The report uses projections and scenarios to assess the broader economic outlook and future infrastructure requirements, and examines the options for financing these, not least against the backdrop of the economic recession and financial crisis which have significantly modified the risks and potential rewards associated with major infrastructure projects. Building on numerous in-depth case studies from Europe, North America and Asia, the report offers insights into the economic prospects for these key facilities and identifies policy options for improved gateway and corridor infrastructure in the future.
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The Future of Families to 2030

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Publication date: 
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Abstract in English: 
Since the 1960s the family in the OECD area has undergone significant transformation. In many countries, the extended family has all but disappeared, and the traditional two-parent family has become much less widespread as divorce rates, re-marriages, cohabitation, single parenthood and same-sex partnerships have all increased. With rising migration, cultures and values have become more diverse, with some ethnic minorities evolving as parallel family cultures while others intermingle with mainstream cultures through mixed-race marriages. Families have seen more mothers take up work in the labour market, their adolescents spend longer and longer in education and training, and the elderly members of the family live longer and, increasingly, alone. The repercussions of these changes on housing, pensions, health and long-term care, on labour markets, education and public finances, have been remarkable. Recent demographic projections perfromed by many OECD countries suggest that the next 20 years are likely to see a continuation and even acceleration of changes in household and family structures. In particular, the numbers and shares of single-adult and single-parent households are expected to increase significantly, as is the number of couples without children. This report explores likely future changes in family and household structures in OECD countries; identifies what appear to be the main forces shaping the family landscape between now and 2030; discusses the longer-term challenges for policy arising from those expected changes; and on the basis of the three subsequent thematic chapters, suggests policy options for managing the challenges on a sustainable basis.
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Future Global Shocks. Improving Risk Governance

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Abstract in English: 
Recent global shocks, such as the 2008 financial crisis, have driven policy makers and industry strategists to re-examine how to prepare for and respond to events that can begin locally and propagate around the world with devastating effects on society and the economy. This report considers how the growing interconnectedness in the global economy could create the conditions and vectors for rapid and widespread disruptions. It looks at examples of hazards and threats that emerge from the financial world, cyberspace, biological systems and even the solar system, to reflect on what strategic capacities are called for to improve assessment, mapping, modelling, response and resilience to such large scale risks.
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OECD Compendium of Productivity Indicators 2012

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, November 1, 2013
Abstract in English: 
This document presents an overview of recent trends in productivity level and growth in OECD countries, based on a large set of indicators. It also highlights the measurement issues involved in compiling indicators used for the analysis of issues related to productivity.
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Economic Policy Reforms: Going for Growth 2013

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Friday, February 15, 2013
Abstract in English: 
Going for Growth builds on OECD expertise on structural policy reforms and economic performance to provide policymakers with a set of concrete recommendations on reform areas identified as priorities for sustained growth. The OECD has identified reform recommendations to boost real incomes and employment through the Going for Growth analysis for each OECD country since 2005 and, more recently, for the BRIICS. This benchmarking exercise provides a tool for governments to reflect on policy reforms that affect their citizens’ long-term living standards. Since the 2009 Pittsburgh Summit, Going for Growth has contributed to the G20 regular work programme to achieve Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth, notably through the so called Mutual Assessment Process. For each country, five policy priorities are identified based on their ability to improve long term material living standards through higher productivity and employment. The priorities broadly cover product and labour market regulations; education and training; tax and benefit systems; trade and investment rules; and innovation policies. This issue reviews the progress made on previous recommendations and identifies new priorities for the near term. It also looks at the potential impact of Going for Growth policy recommendations on public policy goals other than GDP growth.
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Looking to 2060: Long-term Growth Prospects for the World

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, November 9, 2012
Abstract in English: 
This report presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances.
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