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World Bank Group

Global Economic Prospects: Divergences and Risks

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Growth prospects have weakened throughout the world economy. Global growth for 2016 is projected at 2.4 percent, unchanged from the disappointing pace of 2015, and 0.5 percentage point below the January forecast. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are facing stronger headwinds, including weaker growth among advanced economies and persistently low commodity prices, as well as lackluster global trade and capital flows. Divergences between commodity exporters and importers persist. Conditions remain markedly challenging for commodity exporters, which continue to struggle to adjust to the new era of depressed prices. In contrast, commodity importers are showing greater resilience to headwinds, although the expected growth windfall from low energy prices has been surprisingly modest. Global growth is projected to pick up slowly to 3.0 percent by 2018, as stabilizing commodity prices provide support to commodity exporting EMDEs. Downside risks have become more pronounced. These include deteriorating conditions among key commodity exporters, softer-thanexpected activity in advanced economies, rising private sector debt in some large emerging markets, and heightened policy and geopolitical uncertainties. While policy space for monetary and fiscal stimulus is narrow, structural reforms could boost growth both in the short and the long term.
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173
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The Costs of Meeting the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal Targets on Drinking Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, January 16, 2016
Abstract in English: 
A dedicated goal for water has recently been endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly as part of the sustainable development goal (SDG) framework. This study provides an assessment of the global costs of meeting the WASH-related targets of Goal #6. The targets assessed include achieving universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all (target 6.1), achieving access to adequate and equitable sanitation and hygiene for all, and ending open defecation (target 6.2). The estimates include 140 countries, or 85% of the world's population, focusing on developing countries. Costs estimated cover those of capital investment, program delivery, operations, and major capital maintenance.
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64
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Investing in African Livestock: business opportunities in 2030-2050

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, March 1, 2013
Abstract in English: 
This paper depicts the medium to long term development prospects for the African livestock sector by reviewing data on the estimated consumption of animal-sourced foods and anticipated responses by producers for 2005/07, 2030 and 2050. Data and projections are elaborated by the FAO Global Perspective Studies Unit.
Increases in the demand for animal-sourced food are estimated extraordinarily high in Africa over the coming decades. By 2050, the meat market is projected at 34.8 million tonnes and that of milk about 82.6 million tonnes, an increase of 145 and 155 percent respectively over 2005/07 levels. More notably, over this period, Africa’s increase in volume of meat consumed will be on a par with that of the developed world and that of Latin America, with only South Asia and Southeast Asia anticipated to register higher growth. For milk, only South Asia will register stronger gains in market size than Africa. Furthermore, annual growth rates in both meat and milk consumption are projected to be higher in Africa than in other regions, with the exception of meat in South Asia (from a very low base). Within Africa, beef, milk and poultry are anticipated to provide favourable business opportunities for livestock producers, in both volume and value terms. However, market dynamics differ amongst the geographic hubs, including Western and Southern Africa; Northern and Southern Africa; and Central Africa.
Production will not keep pace with consumption. Africa is anticipated to increasingly become a net importer of animal-sourced foods. This represents a missed development opportunity, given the widespread societal benefits that inclusive growth of livestock can generate, particularly in a continent where the majority of rural dwellers depend fully or partly on livestock for their livelihoods. Consequently, investments, and policy and institutional reforms that target African livestock markets are required to ensure that the business opportunities generated by the growing demand for animal-sourced foods translate into widespread benefits for the population.
Formulating effective livestock sector policies and institutional changes require a flow of information on market conditions and on the constraints to market entry. These are rarely readily available and investments in data collection and in data collection systems should be given appropriate priority, as the basis for supportive policies and investment.2050
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14
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Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Sunday, November 8, 2015
Abstract in English: 
This report brings together these two overarching objectives and explores how they can be more easily achieved if considered together. It demonstrates the urgency of efforts to reduce poverty and the vulnerability of poor people in the face of climate change. It also provides guidance on how to ensure that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building.
Our studies show that without action, climate change would likely spark higher agricultural prices and could threaten food security in poorer regions such as Sub- Saharan Africa and South Asia. And in most countries where we have data, poor urban households are more exposed to floods than the average urban population.
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227
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Global Economic Prospects - Managing the Next Wave of Globalization

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, January 1, 2007
Abstract in English: 
The next globalization—deeper integration with the world economy through trade, flows of information technology, finance, and migration—will offer renewed and enhanced opportunities to increase productivity and raise incomes. However, along with rising average incomes may come dislocations and environmental pressures. This Global Economic Prospects analyzes three possible consequences— growing inequality, pressures in labor markets, and threats to the global commons. If these forces are left unchecked, they could slow or even derail globalization and thus adversely affect growth and development in many developing countries.The report is premised on the idea that these threats to continued global growth and poverty reduction from environmental damage, social unrest, or new increases in protectionist sentiment are potentially serious, and it is worth exploring ways that these disruptive forces might be addressed now if we wish to see sustainable global growth in the future.
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208
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China 2030: Building a modern, harmonious and creative society

Title Original Language: 
2030 年的中国: 建设现代" 和谐" 有创造力的社
Abstract Original Language: 
This overview, followed by five supporting reports, identifies these challenges of tomorrow, points to key choices ahead, and recommends not just ‘what’ needs to be reformed, but ‘how’ to undertake the reforms. The overview is divided into nine chapters. The first chapter examines the characteristics of China’s development since 1978; considers future opportunities, challenges, and risks; and describes a vision of China in the year 2030. The second chapter maps a new strategy that will realize this vision, focusing on the key choices ahead for China to sustain rapid economic and social development and become a modern, harmonious, and creative high-income society before 2030. Chapters three to eight elaborate on each of the six pillars of the new strategy: consolidating China’s market foundations; enhancing innovation; promoting green development; ensuring equality of opportunity and social protection for all; strengthening public finances; and achieving mutually beneficial win-win relations between China and the rest of the world. The ninth and final chapter addresses implementation challenges, including the sequencing of reforms and overcoming obstacles that are likely to emerge.
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, March 23, 2013
Abstract in English: 
This overview, followed by five supporting reports, identifies these challenges of tomorrow, points to key choices ahead, and recommends not just ‘what’ needs to be reformed, but ‘how’ to undertake the reforms. The overview is divided into nine chapters. The first chapter examines the characteristics of China’s development since 1978; considers future opportunities, challenges, and risks; and describes a vision of China in the year 2030. The second chapter maps a new strategy that will realize this vision, focusing on the key choices ahead for China to sustain rapid economic and social development and become a modern, harmonious, and creative high-income society before 2030. Chapters three to eight elaborate on each of the six pillars of the new strategy: consolidating China’s market foundations; enhancing innovation; promoting green development; ensuring equality of opportunity and social protection for all; strengthening public finances; and achieving mutually beneficial win-win relations between China and the rest of the world. The ninth and final chapter addresses implementation challenges, including the sequencing of reforms and overcoming obstacles that are likely to emerge.
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Capital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, January 1, 2013
Abstract in English: 
Capital for the Future, the second edition of the series "Global Development Horizons", explores saving, investment, and capital flows through 2030. It finds that developing economies are fast becoming major investors in the world economy, and by 2030 will account for more than 60 cents of every dollar invested. This represents a fundamental shift with respect to historical performance: for 4 decades (through the 1990s), developing countries had been accounting for just about 20 cents for every dollar of global saving and investment. Before 2020, total investment in the developing world is expected to overtake that in high income countries. Developing countries will—for the first time in history—become major sources, destinations, and potentially also intermediaries of global gross capital flows.
Future trends in investment, saving, and capital flows will affect economic conditions from the household level to the global macroeconomic level, with implications not only for national governments but also for international institutions and policy coordination. Without timely efforts, some countries will be left behind. And, more importantly, even within otherwise successful countries, some people will be left behind. Policy makers preparing for this change will thus benefit from a better understanding of the unfolding dynamics of global capital and wealth in the future.
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