Abstract in English:
This report examines how the international monetary system (IMS) might evolve and the implications of different scenarios for the euro area over the next fifteen years. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system forty years ago, the IMS gradually developed into its present state, a hybrid mix of exchange-rate flexibility, capital mobility and monetary independence. The US dollar retains a dominant, but not exclusive, role and the IMS governance system blends regional and multilateral surveillance. It combines IMF-based and ad-hoc liquidity provision. Although it has proved resilient during the crisis, partly thanks to ad-hoc arrangements, the IMS has serious flaws, which are likely to be magnified by the rapid transformation of the global economy and the increasing economic power of emerging economies.