Abstract in English:
Europe’s economy is finally showing tentative signs of stabilising. But does this mark the start of a robust recovery, or is it, in the language of the markets, a ‘dead cat bounce’? The Centre for European Reform asked four leading European economists to predict how things would look in 2020. Their answers differ sharply. The future of the European project will to a large extent depend on which of the four authors is most right. If the eurozone as a whole, and its debtor states in particular, suffer prolonged stagnation and funding crises, popular faith in European integration could be hit hard. Aside from casting doubt over the future of the euro, the damage to the EU’s single market, perhaps Europe’s biggest economic asset, and to relations between member-states would be considerable. Conversely, if the eurozone stages a sustained economic recovery, and the currency union’s debtor countries are able to honour their debt burdens while engineering a bounce-back in living standards, the outlook for the euro (and the EU more generally) will be much brighter.