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European Union

European Union

The Future of Europe's Economy: Disaster or Deliverance?

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Wednesday, September 18, 2013
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Europe’s economy is finally showing tentative signs of stabilising. But does this mark the start of a robust recovery, or is it, in the language of the markets, a ‘dead cat bounce’? The Centre for European Reform asked four leading European economists to predict how things would look in 2020. Their answers differ sharply. The future of the European project will to a large extent depend on which of the four authors is most right. If the eurozone as a whole, and its debtor states in particular, suffer prolonged stagnation and funding crises, popular faith in European integration could be hit hard. Aside from casting doubt over the future of the euro, the damage to the EU’s single market, perhaps Europe’s biggest economic asset, and to relations between member-states would be considerable. Conversely, if the eurozone stages a sustained economic recovery, and the currency union’s debtor countries are able to honour their debt burdens while engineering a bounce-back in living standards, the outlook for the euro (and the EU more generally) will be much brighter.
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The European Financial Crisis: Constitutional Aspects and Implications

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Wednesday, September 19, 2012
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With its provisions on the EMU, the Maastricht Treaty introduced a new, ’macroeconomic’ layer into the European economic constitution. The Maastricht layer of the European economic constitution was based on the following principles: exclusive competence of the EU in monetary policy in the euro area; price stability as the primary objective of Europeanized monetary policy; independence of the ECB and national central banks; Member State sovereignty in fiscal and economic policy with the Union accomplishing a mere coordinating task; Member State fiscal liability as the reverse of their fiscal sovereignty; and primacy of price stability pursued by Europeanized monetary policy over national fiscal-policy objectives. The ongoing euro-area crisis is a constitutional crisis, too. The European responses to the crisis include, on the one hand, emergency measures and stability mechanisms, and, on the other hand, strengthening European economic governance. As a consequence of these responses, the central Maastricht principles of the European economic constitution are teetering. However, the present constitutional crisis should not merely be conceived in economic terms. It extends to the political and social dimensions; it also affects democracy and transparency, as well as social values and rights.
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The State of the Union 2013. Collected Perspectives

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Tuesday, January 1, 2013
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The State of the Union conference is an annual event for high-level reflection on the European Union, organised by the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence, Italy. The conference brings together policy-makers, leading academics, and business and opinion leaders to discuss the present and future prospects of the European Union.
"State of the Union 2013: Collected Perspectives" brings together some of the keynote lectures, speeches, and papers presented at the 2013 State of Union conference. While Europe is the concern of the whole book, part I of the volume focuses on the theme of ‘Institutions and Democratic Governance’, while Part II focuses on the theme of ‘Migration and Citizenship’. Contributors include policy-makers, leading academics, and business and opinion leaders.
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Challenges of Multi-Tier Governance in the European Union Effectiveness, Efficiency and Legitimacy: Compendium of Notes

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Friday, March 1, 2013
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This compendium includes articles of a number of eminent experts invited by the Policy Department C to exchange with the Members of the Constitutional Affairs Committee of the European Parliament on the issues related to the challenges of the multi-tier governance in the EU. They aim at providing unique insights into the major questions of efficiency, effectiveness and legitimacy that the EU governance is currently facing. While dealing with the lessons from the past experiences of the differentiated integration, they put naturally a specific focus on current challenges with the respect to the Economic and Monetary union. They further analyse the impact of those developments on the European institutions and their decision-making processes and mechanisms of its legitimation. The compendium concludes with options for managing this increasing tension towards differentiation within the EU in the future.
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European Economic Governance in an International Context

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Tuesday, January 1, 2013
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The book presents compendium of speeches from the Global Jean Monnet Conference on European economic governance in 2011. It discusses the future of the European Union and on the future of European economic and monetary integration. Speakers address following issues: safeguarding the stability of the euro area and the enhanced instruments for crisis intervention, reinforced fiscal and macroeconomic coordination and surveillance: economic aspects, strengthening the governance of the euro area: political and institutional aspects and the EU and global macroeconomic governance (G8, G20, IMF).
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The European Union after the Treaty of Lisbon: Visions of Leading Policy-makers, Academics and Journalists

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Saturday, January 1, 2011
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On 25-26 May 2010, the Jean Monnet Programme organised a two-day Global Jean Monnet Conference entitled "The European Union after the Treaty of Lisbon". As has been a biennial tradition for more than a decade, the Global Jean Monnet Conference was joined by ECSA-World, i.e. the network of national European Community Studies Associations that are active world-wide. The Conference, which took place at the European Parliament, brought together 420 leading policy-makers, diplomats, renowned academics, journalists and civil society representatives from 69 countries. The Global Jean Monnet / ECSA-World Conference confirmed its reputation as "a platform to reflect on major policy developments and coming priorities" and provided an in-depth analysis of the impact of the Lisbon Treaty in four main areas: the EU's institutional balance and institutional co-operation, fundamental rights and EU citizenship, the new EU framework for confronting global economic challenges and the EU as an international political and security actor.
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Global Europe 2050

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Sunday, January 1, 2012
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We can rise to the Europe 2020 challenges of dealing with an ageing population, securing sustainable resources, developing clean energy supplies, improving healthcare and combating climate change – but only if we take effective short, medium and long term action. This is why the European Commission asked twenty five leading analysts to look into the future and work through a number of scenarios to see where the EU might be in 2050. Their work, presented in this Global Europe 2050 report, analyses three key scenarios which describe different but nonetheless possible pathways that Europe could choose to follow over the decades to come.
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Empowering Europe’s Future: Governance, Power and Options for the EU in a Changing World

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Thursday, December 5, 2013
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Looking to 2030, global change will be occurring at an accelerated pace in an unpredictable fashion. The world in 2030 will be a more fragile place due to the rise of economic interdependence, the diffusion of power, and the disruptive potential of technological innovation and extreme events. Ten years ago, for example, the SARS outbreak cost businesses $60 billion – and caused the loss of about 2% of East Asian GDP. Vulnerability to unexpected events – such as the 2010 Icelandic ash-cloud or the 2011 Japanese tsunami – will only increase as global supply chains expose states and societies to the effects of political crises and disruptions, even in distant regions. Weak or rigid governance systems will increasingly struggle to respond to these trends.
In this less predictable world, power shifts will not be linear, not least due to the proliferation of domestic challenges in emerging economies. Whether they are in relative rise or decline, the risk may be that many governments become more introverted and less inclined to international engagement and compromise, as they cope with increasing turbulence at home. Conversely, a faster-changing world will offer wide-ranging options and new opportunities to more actors – both state and non-state – who are flexible and quick enough to seize them. Cities may lead efforts to reduce carbon emissions; smaller states, like Sweden, Singapore or Qatar, may shape international agendas and regional affairs through the use of technical leadership or coalition-building. Power shifts will not necessarily be a zero-sum game; the gains of some need not entail losses for others.
Governments, regional organisations and international institutions will struggle to cope with the twin trends of increased interdependence and greater fragmentation. With a larger range of influential state and non-state actors, managing complexity and setting political agendas will become more challenging at both the domestic and international levels. This could result in a deficit of leadership and governance on the global stage. Future influence in international affairs will depend on how state and non-state actors deploy their respective power assets. As power becomes more diffuse, it will also become more constrained, which will put a premium on the ability to partner and build political coalitions.
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Europe’s Societal Challenges. An Analysis of Global Societal Trends to 2030 and their Impact on the EU

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Sunday, December 1, 2013
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This report presents the findings of a study of global societal trends and their impact on the EU in the next two decades. The work is part of the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) set up to develop a lasting framework to assess global trends and to develop policy responses across EU institutions over the next institutional cycle (2014-2019). The first phase of the project culminated in a report on the long-term, international, domestic, economic and political trends facing the European Union; the second phase of the project split trends into three streams, focusing on the economy, governance and power, and society. This Trend Report aims to explore the evidence base, uncertainties and potential trajectories underpinning global societal trends and their impact on the EU. The work is based on a review of the available data and literature on societal trends in a number of thematic areas. It also builds on inputs harnessed through an online Delphi exercise involving more than 200 international experts, as well as a series of 29 semi-structured interviews, involving experts from academia and think tanks, policymakers, and leading thinkers from the private or third sector.
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Strategic Options for Europe’s Future

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Monday, December 9, 2013
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This report, which reflects the work and discussions of a Reflection Group including EU experts from different Member States, analyses the 'state of the Union', describes the key challenges Europe faces and presents the following five potential strategic options for the future of European integration:

Option 1 - Going back to the basics: Supporters of the option argue that the events of recent years have shown that European integration has gone too far and that the EU should abandon moves towards an "ever closer union". For them performing a U-turn and undoing mistakes of the past is the most promising way forward to rescue the most worthwhile result of European integration: the Single Market. Dismantling the euro in its current form would according to advocates of this option – not lead to a collapse of the Union, but rather herald the start of a more pragmatic, effective approach to European integration.

Option 2 – Consolidating past achievements: Proponents of this option argue that the EU has already introduced most of the reforms needed to overcome the euro crisis and these should be given time to work. There is a need to be realistic and accept that Member States are not willing to go further and pool sovereignty in key areas. The EU should, at this difficult moment, steer clear of overambitious attempts to deepen integration, which could backfire given the negative political and public attitudes in many countries towards the EU and euro.

Option 3 – Moving ahead ambitiously: Those supporting this option argue that simply consolidating past achievements will not be enough: further integration, including measures to further deepen integration in the Economic and Monetary Union and boost the Union's democratic legitimacy in the public's eyes, and an honest public debate about the EU's future are vital not only to overcome the crisis but also to prepare for future challenges. All this will require significant changes to the EU Treaties. But reforms will have to be done jointly and cautiously, step by step, to avoid creating new dividing lines between EU countries.

Option 4 – Leaping forward: Advocates of this option say that recent experience has provided ample proof that the EU is insufficiently equipped to face current and future challenges, and that there is a need to take a major qualitative leap towards a fully-fledged economic, fiscal, financial, social and political union, with a strong European executive ('European government') and legislature (parliament) able to take autonomous decisions reflecting genuine European interests. Potential opposition from some countries should not prevent the 'willing and able' from making a major leap forward, even if this leads to a 'core Europe' including only those countries ready to deepen integration significantly.

Option 5 – Changing the 'more/less Europe' logic: Supporters of this option believe that the traditional debate about European integration along the lines of more or less Europe has been exhausted. The experience of the last six decades has shown that a further transfer of national political and democratic concepts to the European level would not work. They say that the EU and its members should concentrate on efforts aiming to make the Union more accountable to the public for its actions, find new ways to involve the public in policy-making, and boost the EU's capacity to safeguard the fundamental rights of its citizens and guarantee their basic social rights by strengthening the Union's caring dimension.
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