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European Union

European Union

GECO 2016 Global Energy and Climate Outlook Road from Paris

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, July 16, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Abstract
This report examines the effects on greenhouse gases emissions and international energy markets of a Reference scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, of two scenarios where the UNFCCC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions have been included, and of a scenario in line with keeping global warming below a temperature increase of 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The report presents an updated version of the modelling work that supported DG CLIMA in the UNFCCC negotiations that resulted in the Paris Agreement of the COP21 in December 2015. In the Reference scenario, emissions trigger global warming above 3°C. In the INDC scenarios, regions adopt domestic policies that result in global changes in emissions and energy use, and would result, if pursued beyond 2030, in the long term in a global warming around 3°C; the INDCs cover 28-44% of the cumulated emissions reductions necessary to remain below a 2°C warming. In the 2°C scenario, all regions realise domestic emission cuts to stay below 2°C, with various profiles in 2020-2050 depending on their national characteristics. Reduction of non-CO2 emissions (34%), energy efficiency (20%) and the deployment of renewable energies (20%) are the main options contributing in the mitigation effort by 2030. A significant number of regions draw economic benefits from shifting their expenditures on fossil energy imports to investments in low-carbon and energy-efficient options. Global efforts to reduce emissions appears compatible with robust GDP growth is in most regions – in particular, high growth rates are maintained in fast-growing low-income regions. The analysis uses the JRC-POLES and JRC-GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change.
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133
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Accelerating Climate Action: Refocusing Policies through a Well-being Lens

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, January 9, 2021
Abstract in English: 
This report builds on the OECD Well-being Framework and applies a new perspective that analyses synergies and trade-offs between climate change mitigation and broader goals such as health, education, jobs, as well as wider environmental quality and the resources needed to sustain our livelihoods through time. This report takes an explicitly political economy approach to the low-emissions transitions needed across five economic sectors (electricity, heavy industry, residential, surface transport, and agriculture) that are responsible for more than 60% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Synergies between emissions reduction and broader well-being objectives, such as reduced air pollution and improved health, increase the incentives for early mitigation action. At the same time, the impact of climate policies on issues such as the affordability of energy and jobs need to be taken into account to counter growing economic and social inequalities within and between countries. The report argues that reframing climate policies using a well-being lens is necessary for making visible such synergies and trade-offs; allowing decision-makers to increase the former and anticipate, manage and minimise the latter. This requires us to rethink societal goals in terms of well-being, reframe our measures of progress and refocus policy-making accordingly.
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OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2020

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, November 27, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2020 examines trends and analyses emerging opportunities and challenges in the digital economy. It highlights how OECD countries and partner economies are taking advantage of information and communication technologies (ICTs) and the Internet to meet their public policy objectives. Through comparative evidence, it informs policy makers of regulatory practices and policy options to help maximise the potential of the digital economy as a driver for innovation and inclusive growth.
This third edition of the OECD Digital Economy Outlook provides a holistic overview of converging trends, policy developments and data on both the supply and demand sides of the digital economy. It illustrates how the digital transformation is affecting economies and societies. Finally, it provides a special focus on how the COVID-19 pandemic is amplifying opportunities and challenges from the digital transformation.
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OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2021: Times of Crisis and Opportunity

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, January 12, 2021
Abstract in English: 
In immediate responses to the COVID-19 crisis, science and innovation are playing essential roles in providing a better scientific understanding of the virus, as well as in the development of vaccines, treatments and diagnostics. Both the public and private sectors have poured billions of dollars into these efforts, accompanied by unprecedented levels of global cooperation. However, the economic crisis that is currently unfolding is expected to severely curtail research and innovation expenditures in firms, while debt-laden governments will face multiple, competing demands for financial support. These developments threaten to cause long-term damage to innovation systems at a time when science and innovation are most needed to deal with the climate emergency, meet the Sustainable Development Goals, and accelerate the digital transformation. Governments will need to take measures to protect their innovation systems as part of their stimulus and recovery packages, but should also use these as opportunities for reforms. In particular, science, technology and innovation (STI) policy should shift towards supporting a more ambitious agenda of system transformation that promotes a managed transition to more sustainable, equitable and resilient futures.
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207
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Coronavirus (COVID-19): Living with uncertainty

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, September 16, 2020
Abstract in English: 
This Interim Report provides updates for G20 country projections made in the June 2020 issue of OECD Economic Outlook (Number 107).
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18
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Back to the Future of Education: Four OECD Scenarios for Schooling

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, September 15, 2020
Abstract in English: 
Close your eyes for a second and think of something that happened over the last 20 years and you would have never expected to occur. Be it the pandemic, smart phones or something else, the truth is that the future likes to surprise us.
Our world is in a perpetual state of change. There are always multiple versions of the future—some are assumptions, others hopes and fears. To prepare, we have to consider not only the changes that appear most probable, but also the ones that we aren’t expecting.
Inspired by the ground-breaking 2001 Schooling for Tomorrow scenarios, this book provides a set of scenarios on the future of schooling, showing not a single path into the future, but many. Using these scenarios can help us identify the opportunities and challenges that these futures could hold for schooling and education more broadly. We can then use those ideas to help us better prepare and act now.
Whether parents or students, teachers or educational leaders, researchers or policy makers, this book has been written for all those who want to think about futures that haven’t occurred to play their part in shaping the future that will.
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76
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Towards a more resilient Europe post-coronavirus: Capabilities and gaps in the EU's capacity to address structural risks

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, October 1, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The current coronavirus crisis emphasises the need for the European Union to devote more effort to anticipatory governance, notably through analysis of medium- and long-term global trends, as well as structured contingency planning and the stress-testing of existing and future policies. In order to contribute to reflection on and discussion about the implications of the coronavirus pandemic for EU policy-making, this paper builds on an initial 'mapping' of some 66 potential structural risks which could confront Europe over the coming decade. Taking 33 risks which are assessed as being more significant or likely, it looks first at the capabilities which the EU and its Member States already have to address those risks, and then looks at the various gaps in policy and instruments at the Union's disposal, suggesting possible approaches to overcome them in the short and medium terms.
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114
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Ten opportunities for Europe post-coronavirus: Exploring potential for progress in EU policy-making

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
Abstract in English: 
Whilst much commentary and analysis has understandably been focused on reaction to, and mitigation of, the immediate impact of the coronavirus crisis in Europe and worldwide, relatively little attention has been paid to areas of potential opportunity which the crisis may offer to improve policy for the future. This EPRS analysis looks at ten areas which may offer potential for progress, including working more closely together on health policy, using climate action to promote a sustainable recovery, re-thinking the world of work, future-proofing education, harnessing e-commerce and championing European values and multilateralism.
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28
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Towards a more resilient Europe post-coronavirus: An initial mapping of structural risks facing the EU

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, July 20, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The current coronavirus crisis emphasises the need for the European Union to devote more effort to anticipatory governance, notably through analysis of medium- and long-term global trends, as well as structured contingency planning and the stress-testing of existing and future policies. In order to contribute to reflection on, and discussion about, the implications of the coronavirus pandemic for EU policy-making, this paper offers an initial ‘mapping’ of some of the potential structural risks which could confront Europe over the coming decade, with 66 such risks analysed briefly in a series of short notes. The document then goes on to take a closer look at some of the more immediate risks to be considered in the near term and outlines possible EU action to prevent or mitigate them over the remainder of the 2019-24 institutional cycle.
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100
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Russian futures 2030 - The shape of things to come

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, September 22, 2020
Abstract in English: 
This Chaillot Paper seeks to provide readers with ambitious foresight analysis and insights on how to be prepared for unexpected twists and turns in Russia’s future trajectory.
The opening chapter highlights a set of key megatrends that will shape how Russia evolves in the decade ahead. Subsequent chapters focus on key sectors and analyse critical uncertainties that will influence Russia’s future course of development. They cover state-society relations in the country; its economic development and the evolution of its military posture; as well as how Russia’s relations with the EU’s eastern neighbours and China may unfold by 2030. Each of these chapters presents three alternative future scenarios. While they zoom in on specific themes and sectors, the concluding section offers a panoramic view of the various possible futures – combining elements of all of the preceding chapters to produce three holistic snapshots of Russia in 2030.
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108
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