United Kingdom

The simplistic US-China focused narrative of the future of the Asia-Pacific does not sufficiently take into consideration other regional actors such as Japan and India, new instruments of leverage in the region, or the extent and complexity of changing relationships.

In making the situation appear simpler than reality, Asia-Pacific countries and the United States risk narrowing the aperture through which they evaluate policy choices regarding major regional challenges. At the same time, the bipolar perspective, potentially invoking Cold War-type mentalities, could exacerbate tensions rather than relieve them. Seeing US–Chinese competition as the main variable in the region could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

This paper seeks to go beyond this perception by laying out the major narratives of the region’s power distribution currently in play in its four principal powers – the United States, China, India and Japan. Building on a review of the main instruments of power and the current regional trends, this paper argues that the Asia-Pacific region in 2030 will have at least four principal characteristics:
- The pace of change will increase, along with its volatility. This will result in the power distribution between the principal actors becoming more complex, finely balanced and difficult to assess clearly. The emergence of new, often disruptive, technologies, particularly in media and communications, will make control of information increasingly difficult.
- Power will become more diverse and diffuse, with more state and non-state actors having influential roles. Power is also becoming more diffuse within states, making it harder for governments to manage internal debates and to send clear messages to neighbours, particularly where nationalism is growing.
- The region will become more complex, unpredictable and thus hard to govern as a result of the rise of new actors, challenges and tools. This could lead to policy paralysis on the part of leading state actors as a swiftly changing environment and too many choices lead to greater uncertainty and, in the end, hesitancy or no action being taken.
- The region will become more interdependent, which makes the previous point troubling. Already, all states in the Asia-Pacific are increasingly dependent on one another for growth, stability and security.

Based on original polling across five European countries, this report explores employers' views on a range of issues related to long-term unemployment – their attitudes towards the unemployed, especially on skills and employability, and the effectiveness of their contact with public employment services.

An Avalanche is Coming argues that the next 50 years could see a golden age for higher education, but only if all the players in the system, from students to governments, seize the initiative and act ambitiously. If not, an avalanche of change will sweep the system away.

Deep, radical and urgent transformation is required in higher education. The biggest risk is that as a result of complacency, caution or anxiety the pace of change is too slow and the nature of change is too incremental. The models of higher education that marched triumphantly across the globe in the second half of the 20th century are broken.

This report challenges every player in the system to act boldly.

The document is a contribution to a growing body of knowledge and is aimed at the defence community. It seeks to build on previous editions of Global Strategic Trends with a more accessible format. It has a greater focus on defence and security issues and expands on other subjects, including resources, and the resurgence of ideology. From a comprehensive review of trends, it draws out 3 key themes: how we will adapt to the reality of a shifting climate and breakneck technological innovation (see the Human Environment); the dominance of the West in international affairs will fade and global power will become more evenly distributed between the West and the rising powers in Asia (see the Dynamics of Global Power); and finally, as society and the distribution of global power changes, the challenges to defence and security will increase (see Evolving Defence and Security Challenges). It draws lessons from contemporary events to conclude that globalisation is a more volatile process than previously envisaged and that this volatility may leave globalised systems more vulnerable to strategic shock and systemic failure. It also draws out high level global defence and security implications.

This report describes the lessons learnt from cases of ‘sustainable intensification’ of agriculture, where farmers have increased food production on existing farmland without putting further pressure on the environment. It uses cases identified by the Foresight project ‘Global food and farming futures’ to demonstrate the potential for high yeild outputs from agriculture in Africa.

The Public Administration Select Committee (PASC) is carrying out an inquiry into Whitehall’s capacity to anticipate, to analyse, to assess, and to respond to the most significant challenges (risks and opportunities) facing the UK in the next decade or so. This includes scrutinising Whitehall capabilities for foresight and for reaction to the unforeseen, as well as the adequacy of current capabilities, the need for new capabilities in the future, and the conduct of strategy and leadership.

The Gulf monarchies – the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)) – are undergoing dramatic change. The last decade has seen rapid growth in their populations, economies and education systems, coupled with deep changes in the flow of information, the make-up of the population and the economic expectations of the younger generation. The Gulf states are increasingly important foreign policy players and investors, which means that a growing range of countries have a direct interest in their wealth and stability.

This report makes a number of recommendations for GCC governments and international allies. Key points are summarized below. In short, it argues that the Gulf countries should seize the opportunity to carry out meaningful reforms towards more constitutional forms of monarchy. Failing that, the various dynamics of change – economic, demographic, social and political – will add to pressures on the states of the Gulf, and increase the risks of future conflict in a region of vital strategic importance to the rest of the world.

This paper sets out 5 different visions for water management in future cities, and explores the research and innovation challenges to achieve them.

UK Space Vision 2025 is a glimpse of what a space enabled world may look like in 2025, what it will mean for UK’s economy, for UK’s Government, and for consumers, families and citizens. It was inspired by the recommendation of various stakeholders and presents a forward vision of a space enabled world and the benefits to the UK of maintaining its lead role in Space.

This report evaluates the National Space Technology Programme (NSTP) against delivering support for growth of the space sector. Although overall the programme is deemed to have been very successful, the report provides detailed recommendations for areas which can be improved.