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Agriculture

The Global Land Squeeze: Managing the Growing Competition for Land

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, July 20, 2023
Abstract in English: 
In this report, WRI researchers explore how rising demand for food, wood and shelter is squeezing land that’s needed for storing carbon and protecting biodiversity. This research uses new modeling to give a true global picture of the carbon opportunity costs for land use and proposes a four-pronged approach–produce, protect, reduce, restore–for sustainably managing the world’s finite land.
Competition for land is heating up as a growing global population increases demand for food, wood and shelter – putting a squeeze on land that is needed to store carbon and provide habitats for biodiversity.
By 2050, this research projects that land twice the size of India will be converted for agriculture, and land the size of the continental United States will be needed to meet the increasing demand for wood.
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176
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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, July 6, 2023
Abstract in English: 
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 provides a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national, regional, and global levels, and serves as a reference for forward-looking policy analysis and planning. Recent surges in agricultural input prices experienced over the last two years have raised concerns about global food security. This year’s Outlook demonstrates that rising fertiliser costs can lead to higher food prices. A new feature of the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model allows the impact of changing costs of the main mineral fertilisers to be analysed separately from costs of other production inputs. Based on this new feature, a scenario analysis estimates that for each 1% increase in fertiliser prices, agricultural commodity prices would increase by 0.2%. Global food consumption – the main use of agricultural commodities – is projected to increase by 1.3% per year over the next decade, a slower pace than the previous decade due to the foreseen slowdown in population and per capita income growth. This year’s Outlook also provides improved estimates for food consumption by incorporating for the first time calculation methods to estimate food loss and waste.
This report is a collaborative effort between the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, prepared with inputs from Member countries and international commodity organisations. It highlights fundamental economic and social trends that drive the global agri-food sector, assuming there are no major changes to weather conditions or policies.
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359
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The cost of non-rurality

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, June 5, 2023
Abstract in English: 
Rapid urbanisation in several EU Member States and the ensuing population shift from rural areas towards urban centres are generally treated in economic literature as a necessity for generating growth and wellbeing. In the last two decades, however, the overly positive assessment of this trend has shifted.

Globalisation has put increasing pressure on agriculture, food processing industries and other local cottage and SME enterprises. This has led to accelerating changes in the balance between rural and urban areas and has deeply impacted the overall socio-economic fabric of regions.
At the same time, declining rural populations make many rural communities unsustainable. Once inhabitants decide to leave areas due to falling living standards, the remaining population suffers from the further deprivation of goods and services, driving even more people to leave. Several studies have been assessing the costs associated with these changes, in particular their impact on the viability of rural communities. However, they generally fall short of the holistic assessment required, as the decline and shift of populations also create further negative spillovers on the rest of the economy, for example on urban areas that are usually at the receiving end of the influx of rural populations.
This report aims to contribute to the debate on EU rural development policy by presenting a methodology to understand the net costs and benefits of investing in rural areas to society as a whole. By doing so, it asks whether rural depopulation is just a rural problem or whether the consequences have a bearing on the whole of society, and in particular urban areas.
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53
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Strategic Foresight Report 2023

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, July 6, 2023
Abstract in English: 
The European Union is forging ahead with unprecedented action to achieve climate neutrality and sustainability. A successful transformation will limit the existential risks of climate change and the environmental crisis while strengthening the EU’s open strategic autonomy and economic security. It will be key to reinforcing Europe’s long-term competitiveness and social model, and thus its global leadership in the new, net-zero economy, also by supporting other regions in building a sustainable future. Ultimately, this will increase the wellbeing of current and future generations.
However, a successful and fair socio-economic transformation is not a given. Together with its twin, the digital transition, the green transition requires pivotal changes and trade-offs that will affect, among others, our economies and societies at an unmatched pace and scale. To succeed in this transformation, it is essential to recognise the links between the environmental, social, and economic dimensions of sustainability. This will enable Europe to pursue a forwardlooking geopolitical strategy that successfully leverages its most valuable assets – namely, its unique social market economy and its position as the largest trading block in the world.
Against this backdrop, the 2023 Strategic Foresight Report examines the key intersections between the structural trends and dynamics affecting the social and economic aspects of sustainability, to clarify the potential choices and trade-offs that the EU is likely to face in the future. Drawing on an inclusive foresight exercise and building on the three previous editions, it explores key challenges that will determine the transformation of our society and economy towards a model that respects planetary boundaries, and safeguards global competitiveness, strong social foundations, and resilience. It also investigates how pursuing inclusive wellbeing over the long-term, engaging in a pathway towards sustainability, and consolidating democracy can be the recipe for Europe to strengthen its global role.
On this basis, the report proposes ten areas for action to achieve the objectives of a socially and economically sustainable Europe with a stronger role in the world in the coming years.
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36
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Towards a more resilient Europe post-coronavirus: Options to enhance the EU's resilience to structural risks

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, April 16, 2021
Abstract in English: 
The coronavirus crisis has underlined the need for the European Union (EU) to devote greater efforts to anticipatory governance, and to attempt to strengthen its resilience in the face of risks from both foreseeable and unforeseeable events. This paper builds further on an initial 'mapping' in mid-2020 of some 66 potential structural risks which could confront Europe over the coming decade, and a second paper last autumn which looked at the EU's capabilities to address 33 of those risks assessed as being more significant or likely, and at the various gaps in policy and instruments at the Union's disposal. Delving deeper in 25 specific areas, this new paper identifies priorities for building greater resilience within the Union system, drawing on the European Parliament's own resolutions and proposals made by other EU institutions, as well as by outside experts and stakeholders. In the process, it highlights some of the key constraints that will need to be addressed if strengthened resilience is to be achieved, as well as the opportunities that follow from such an approach.
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Towards a more resilient Europe post-coronavirus: Capabilities and gaps in the EU's capacity to address structural risks

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, October 1, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The current coronavirus crisis emphasises the need for the European Union to devote more effort to anticipatory governance, notably through analysis of medium- and long-term global trends, as well as structured contingency planning and the stress-testing of existing and future policies. In order to contribute to reflection on and discussion about the implications of the coronavirus pandemic for EU policy-making, this paper builds on an initial 'mapping' of some 66 potential structural risks which could confront Europe over the coming decade. Taking 33 risks which are assessed as being more significant or likely, it looks first at the capabilities which the EU and its Member States already have to address those risks, and then looks at the various gaps in policy and instruments at the Union's disposal, suggesting possible approaches to overcome them in the short and medium terms.
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114
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Dinner for three - EU, China and the US around the geographical indications table

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Dinner for three - EU, China and the US around the geographical indications table
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, April 7, 2020
Abstract in English: 
China is the EU’s second biggest agri-food exports market. It is also the second destination for the export of EU products protected by geographical indications (GI), accounting for 9% of its value, including wines, agri-food and spirits. The EU-China Agreement on the Protection of Geographical Indications, concluded in November 2019, is expected to realise higher potential for exporting EU GIs to the country since market access is now guaranteed. But the US-China Economic and Trade Agreement, signed in January 2020, has set down a couple of precautionary measures, including a consultation mechanism with China before new GIs can be recognised for protection in the Chinese market because of international trade agreements. As a result, EU GIs could be brought under tighter US scrutiny before being recognised for protection in China. Analysis reveals, however, that only a handful of EU GIs may be affected by the latter Agreement, if at all.
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OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019‑2028

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, July 8, 2019
Abstract in English: 
Global agriculture has evolved into a highly diverse sector, with operations that range from small subsistence farms to large multinational holdings. Farmers’ products are sold fresh in local markets, but also across the world through sophisticated and modern value chains. Beyond their traditional role of providing humankind with food, farmers are important custodians of the natural environment and have become producers of renewable energy. In order to meet the high expectations society places on agriculture, public and private decision makers require reliable information on the likely trends of global demand, supply, trade and prices and the factors driving them. To this end, the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook is an annual reference that provides a comprehensive medium-term baseline scenario for agricultural commodity markets at national, regional and global levels. In addition to providing a plausible baseline scenario for agriculture markets in the coming decade, the Outlook identifies a widening set of risks to agricultural markets that can help policy makers better anticipate and manage them.These include the spread of plant and animal diseases and the growing risk of extreme climatic events, as well as possible supply disruptions from growing trade tensions. This OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028 foresees that the demand for agricultural products will grow by 15% over the coming decade.
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326
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Suppressing Growth: How GMO Opposition Hurts Developing Nations

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, February 15, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Campaigns against genetically modified organisms (GMOs), originating primarily in Europe, have created significant obstacles to the development and adoption of genetically modified crops. While the policies and practices resulting from these campaigns impose considerable costs on the economies of origin, they disproportionately hurt those nations with the greatest need for more productive agriculture—particularly the developing nations of sub-Saharan Africa. The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) estimates that the current restrictive climate for agricultural biotech innovations could cost low- and lowermiddle- income nations up to $1.5 trillion in foregone economic benefits through 2050. In short, anti-GMO activists have erected significant barriers to the development of the poorest nations on earth.
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25
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Future of Food : Maximizing Finance for Development in Agricultural Value Chains

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, April 16, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Current levels of investment in agricultural value chains are insufficient to achieve key development goals including ending poverty and hunger, boosting shared prosperity through more and better jobs, and better stewarding the world’s natural resources by 2030. Crowding-in private investment to help achieve these goals and optimizing the use of scarce public resources will be needed, as will the continued promotion of good governance and environmental and social sustainability. Increasing private sector investment and associated financing will require identifying and understanding market failures currently leading to the sub-optimal private provision of goods and services needed to achieve key development goals. Where the private sector is already investing in agricultural value chains, promoting responsible investment can help increase development impacts. Crowding-in more private investment requires increasing the space for private sector activity, improving the policy and regulatory environment, and considering options for using public financing to improve private incentives and to reduce transaction costs and risks, including blended finance solutions. While these actions can help induce more private investment, there is still a critical need for public resources to finance essential public goods and services such as human capital, agricultural research, and complementary public infrastructure
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44
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