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Agriculture

Agricultural Outlook, 2013-2022

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, October 1, 2013
Abstract in English: 
The nineteenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook, and the ninth prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), provides projections to 2022 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. Notable in the 2013 report is the inclusion of cotton for the first time and a special feature on China.

Higher costs and strong demand are expected to keep commodity prices well above historical averages with a high risk of price volatility given tight stocks, a changeable policy environment and increasing weather-related production risks. China is projected to maintain its self-sufficiency in certain key food commodities while increasing its trade and integration in world agricultural markets.
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119
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What China wants Analysis of China's food demand to 2050

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, March 4, 2014
Abstract in English: 
China’s economic growth and process of urbanisation are bringing about profound changes to China’s agrifood sector. With demand for agrifood products projected to double between 2009 and 2050, China’s agricultural sector is poised to contend with the challenges of depleting natural resource and rising input costs to maintain or improve productivity growth of most
major agricultural commodities.

With the population of China expected to increase to about 1.38 billion in 2050, the nature of food demand will depend on a number of factors, including income growth and urbanization. To investigate these developing trends, this study considers demand across three different income groups: urban high income, urban medium income and rural households. An updated version of the ABARES agrifood model (Linehan et al. 2012a) was used for the analysis. This model is an economic simulation model of global agricultural production, consumption and trade. In this report, agrifood products include primary agricultural products and lightly transformed agricultural products, such as flour and meat, but exclude highly processed food items. While it is projected that the majority of China’s future food demand will be met by an increase in domestic production, there are significant challenges with which the Chinese agrifood sector will need to contend to maintain or increase productivity growth. Investment in the industry is ongoing and required to ensure the degradation and availability of land and water resources, and rising costs for intermediate inputs, do not impede production growth.

The opportunities that Chinese demand growth will provide to food producers and exporters to 2050 are significant. To fully realize those opportunities, it will be important for Australian industries to utilize the working relationships with different agents in the food supply chain in China. For example, supermarkets and hypermarkets, which have an increasing presence in
urban food retailing in China, are playing an important role in meeting the demand for high‐value products by urban consumers. With higher incomes, urban consumers are also expected to increase their expenditure on convenience foods, fast food and restaurant food. Australian industries will need to be responsive to these changes if they are to successfully compete in the
Chinese market over the long term.
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36
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Assessment of global megatrends

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, March 2, 2015
Abstract in English: 
The global megatrends report assesses 11 global megatrends (GMT) of importance for Europe's environment in the long term. In assessing key drivers, trends and implications for Europe, it aims to provide an improved basis for strategic European environmental policymaking.
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140
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Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, July 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
The Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024, is a collaborative effort of the OECD and the FAO of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets.
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148
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Foresight and African agriculture: innovations and policy opportunities This review

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Publication date: 
Thursday, April 3, 2014
Abstract in English: 
This report describes the lessons learnt from cases of ‘sustainable intensification’ of agriculture, where farmers have increased food production on existing farmland without putting further pressure on the environment. It uses cases identified by the Foresight project ‘Global food and farming futures’ to demonstrate the potential for high yeild outputs from agriculture in Africa.
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55
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Projections of Agribusiness – Brazil 2014/15 to 2024/25

Title Original Language: 
Projeções do Agronegócio – Brasil 2014/15 a 2024/25
Abstract Original Language: 
O trabalho tem como objetivo indicar direções do desenvolvimento e fornecer subsídios aos formuladores de políticas públicas quanto às tendências dos principais produtos do agronegócio. Os resultados buscam, também, atender a um grande número de usuários dos diversos setores da economia nacional e internacional para os quais as informações ora divulgadas são de enorme importância. As tendências indicadas permitirão identificar trajetórias possíveis, bem como estruturar visões de futuro do agronegócio no contexto mundial para que o país continue crescendo e conquistando novos mercados.
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, July 15, 2015
Abstract in English: 
The study aims to indicate the directions of development and provide subsidies to policy makers about the trends of the main products of agribusiness. The results also seek to answer to a large number of users of various sectors of national and international economy to which the information now disclosed are of enormous importance. The trends will identify possible trajectories and structure visions of the future of agribusiness in the global context for the country to continue growing
and conquering new markets.
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129
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Africa Energy Outlook

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Abstract in English: 
Sub-Saharan Africa’ s energy sector can be improved to unlock a better life for its citizens. This report describes one of the most poorly understood parts of the global energy system, offers an authoritative study of its future prospects – broken down by fuel, sector and sub-region – and shows how investment in the sub-Saharan energy sector can stimulate rapid economic and social development across the region.
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242
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Towards a Water and Food Secure Future

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, June 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
The aim of this paper is to provide policy-makers with a helpful overview of the technical and economic aspects of water use in agriculture, with particular emphasis on crop and livestock production. Through 2050, in many countries, agriculture will remain an important determinant of economic growth, poverty reduction, and food security, even as, over time, the proportion of agricultural revenue in national gross income declines. Water use in agriculture will remain substantial, irrigated areas will expand and competition for water will increase in all sectors. Most likely, overall supplies of land and water will be sufficient to achieve global food production goals in 2050; although poverty and food insecurity will remain pressing challenges in several regions and countries. Thus, the focus of this report is on the regional and national aspects of food security.
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76
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Looking Ahead in World Food and Agriculture: Perspectives to 2050

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Abstract in English: 
Anticipating future developments in global agriculture is by no means a simple exercise. In the last few years, many of the acute phenomena observed have complicated further the formulation of long-term prospects. The turbulence of world agricultural markets, the price spikes of 2008 and 2011, the wide climate variability experienced in important production regions, and the enhanced linkage among agriculture and other markets such as the energy and the financial markets have propelled interest in revisiting the relations among agriculture, its natural resource basis, economic development, food security and population growth. Discussions of the relationships among these phenomena are lively, as are those on what can be done to prevent the onset of more frequent and more critical conditions in the coming decades.
Given its various fields of expertise, FAO is at the centre of the technical debate on these themes. In 2009, FAO organized an expert meeting and forum around the question of “How to feed to the world in 2050”. This initiative was supported by papers authored by world-class experts. This work has been revisited, and is now presented in this volume.
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560
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Global megatrends update 2 : Living in an urban world

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, March 24, 2014
Abstract in English: 
In 2010, the EEA produced its first assessment of global megatrends as part of its five-yearly assessment of the European environment’s state, trend and prospects (SOER 2010). In preparation for SOER 2015, the EEA is updating each of the megatrends, providing a more detailed analysis based on the latest data. This publication is one of the 11 updates being published separately in the second half of 2013 and early-2014. In 2014 the chapters will be consolidated into a single EEA technical report, which will provide the basis for the analysis of megatrends included in SOER 2015.
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