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Climate change

World climate and security report 2020

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, February 13, 2020
Abstract in English: 
While there has been progress over the past decades, with militaries and security institutions increasingly analyzing and incorporating climate change risks into their assessments, plans and policies, the “World Climate and Security Report 2020” shows that the risks are increasingly urgent, and more must be done. This contributed to the report’s “Key Risks and Opportunities” findings.
This report is published by the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) chaired by Tom Middendorp, former Chief of Defence of the Netherlands and Senior Research Associate at the Clingendael Institute. Louise van Schaik, Head of our EU & Global Affairs Unit & Planetary Security Initiative, is a co-author.
The report is written from the vantage point of international military and security experts, providing a global overview of the security risks of a changing climate, and opportunities for addressing them. It recommends “climate-proofing” international security – including infrastructure, institutions and policies, as well as major emissions reductions to avoid significant-to-catastrophic security threats.
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152
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Shaping a Multiconceptual World - 2020

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Shaping a Multiconceptual World
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 22, 2020
Abstract in English: 
In the report’s opening chapter, “The Expansion of Geopolitics”, World Economic Forum President Børge Brende argues the number of actors exerting geopolitical influence is growing and domains for geopolitical competition or cooperation are also expanding. Within this context, Brende calls for a cooperative order: “The more powers compete and pursue strategic advantage at the expense of addressing shared technological, environmental and economic challenges, the more likely it will be that a broader sense of friction will develop across the global system. A rivalrous global system will in turn make it more unlikely that shared priorities are fulfilled,” he writes. Brende notes that global coordination in the wake of the 11 September 2001 terror attacks and the 2008 global financial crisis offer a paradigm for a more collaborative response to geopolitical challenges. Cooperation, he argues, will ultimately prove more beneficial to individual states – and to the world at large. “As the world becomes even more interconnected in terms of flows of information, capital and people, states will be more reliant on one another to realize positive outcomes for themselves and the global community,” Brende writes. “At a time when power dynamics are in flux, there is an opportunity for stakeholders to make the decision to shape geopolitics in a cooperative, rather than competitive, manner.”
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78
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Megatrends in Africa

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, December 4, 2019
Abstract in English: 
The reports are not academic research as such. The authors are academically qualified researchers, however, and they base their findings on academic studies. In this study, six major trends in Africa are defined as megatrends: population growth, climate change, urbanisation, migration, techno­logical development and democratic development.
Megatrends in Africa are deep and long-term transformation processes that are irreversible. They can and should be mitigated, but will inevitably require adaptation as well. The trends also have an element of foresight, in regards to how they are set to develop in the future.
All the megatrends are interlinked and affect each other. Population growth and climate change can be seen as mega-megatrends that have an especially strong effect on the other trends.
The study contains reports on all six megatrends, which are examined through a Pan-African lens. The study also includes a summary of all megatrends and the interaction of their effects.
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56
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A Vision for a Sustainable Battery Value Chain in 2030

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, September 19, 2019
Abstract in English: 
The need for urgent and more intensive actions against climate change is broadly recognized. In support of this agenda, this report presents a simple yet profound vision: a circular, responsible and just battery value chain is one of the major near-term drivers to realize the 2C Paris Agreement goal in the transport and power sectors, setting course towards achieving the 1.5C goal if complemented with other technologies and collaborative efforts.
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A personal readout of the three ESPAS reports (2012, 2015 and 2019)

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, September 14, 2019
Abstract in English: 
In this summary, Dr Franck Debié outlines his views of the key findings of the three ESPAS reports (2012, 2015, 2019) on long-term trends to 2030 for the Ideas Network 2030.
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8
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Ideas and Perspectives: Priorities 2030

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, September 13, 2019
Abstract in English: 
In this short presentation, Dr Franck Debié, Director of the Library and the Knowledge services in the European Parliament, Associate Professor of Geopolitics at Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris (Paris Sciences et Lettres University), Member of the Steering Committee of the European System for Policy Analysis and Strategy (ESPAS) outlines his view of the key findings of the three ESPAS reports (2012, 2015, 2019) on long-term trends to 2030 for the Ideas Network 2030, an Oxford based network regrouping policy-makers, business actors and researchers. The discussion took place on 14 September 2019. In his conclusions he stressed that: 'the successive ESPAS reports help us to progressively narrow our focus on those issues which will force Europeans to engage in a joint conversation on policy options for the future: the rise of China, climate change, aging and migration, digital disruption, and the growth of nationalism.
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36
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World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, July 15, 2019
Abstract in English: 
The report offers a five-course menu of solutions to ensure we can feed 10 billion people by 2050 without increasing emissions, fueling deforestation or exacerbating poverty. Intensive research and modeling examining the nexus of the food system, economic development, and the environment show why each of the 22 items on the menu is important and quantifies how far each solution can get us. This site presents text from the Synthesis Report, with download links to full chapters from the complete report.
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564
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Two Degrees of Transformation Businesses are coming together to lead on climate change. Will you join them?

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, April 11, 2019
Abstract in English: 
The ‘Two Degrees of Transformation’ report was developed in collaboration with the Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders – a leadership community supported by the World Economic Forum’s Shaping the Future of Environment and Natural Resource Security System Initiative. The run-up to 2020 is a crucial period for delivering progress in line with science if the world is to avoid the worst effects of climate change. Climate change will shape the way in which we do business for decades. Business has a vital role to play in curbing its effects by limiting carbon emissions, but success isn’t just about action from individual companies. Business, sectors, states and regions need to consolidate efforts to create change on a level large enough to halt the crisis. The report reveals what is already happening, bringing together examples from CEOs, companies and sectors from around the world, of smart working, new thinking and innovation. It highlights examples that others can follow, and that will make transformation happen faster than ever before.
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Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2019

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, March 25, 2019
Abstract in English: 
Fostering Effective Energy Transition report is part of the World Economic Forum’s System Initiative on Shaping the Future of Energy. The report summarizes insights from the “Energy Transition Index”, which builds upon the previous series of “Global Energy Architecture Performance Index” by adding a forward looking element of country readiness for energy transition. The index benchmarks 115 countries on the current level of their energy system performance, and the readiness of their macro environment for transition to a secure, sustainable, affordable and inclusive future energy system. The fact-based framework and rankings are intended to enable policy makers and businesses to identify the destination for energy transition, identify imperatives, and align policy and market enablers accordingly.
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ESPAS Report 2019 : Global Trends to 2030

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, April 5, 2019
Abstract in English: 
For something as unknown as the future, it appears to have become surprisingly predictable. A Google search of ‘future 2030’ yields more than 97 million results, all more or less claiming similar things: that 2030 will see a more connected, yet fragmented world, with hazardous shifts in demography and energy, and dangerous changes in technology, environment, and politics.
The future, while overall negative, appears to be a rather certain place.
This illusion of definitiveness is created by two dynamics: first, the pessimistic tone that runs through the vast majority of foresight reports. This is a common feature when it comes to future thinking, with one study showing that all studies undertaken on the future over the last 70 years have one thing in common; pessimism. The reason for this is simple: although both optimism and pessimism are natural human dispositions, the latter is more prevalent by far. Humans are, genetically speaking, biased towards the negative – some studies even indicate that this is particularly the case for Europeans. Second, pessimism in foresight is encouraged by the grave air that surrounds it: in general, negative statements are given more attention than positive ones. That said, more pessimism in foresight does not equal greater accuracy, as one study shows.
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52
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