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Defence

State of the Union 2021

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, September 15, 2021
Abstract in English: 
In her State of the Union address on 15 September 2021, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen outlined flagship initiatives which the Commission plans to undertake in the coming year. They will among others include:
- Continuing the vaccination efforts in Europe and speeding up vaccination globally, as well as strengthening the pandemic preparedness
- Working on closing the climate finance gap, together with our global partners
- Leading the digital transformation that will create jobs and drive competitiveness, while ensuring technical excellence and security of supply
- Ensuring fairer working conditions and better healthcare, and creating more opportunities for Europe’s youth to benefit from the European social market economy
- Stepping up our cooperation on security and defence, and deepening EU’s partnership with closest allies
- Defending European values and freedoms, and protecting the rule of law
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21
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Towards a more resilient Europe post-coronavirus: Options to enhance the EU's resilience to structural risks

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, April 16, 2021
Abstract in English: 
The coronavirus crisis has underlined the need for the European Union (EU) to devote greater efforts to anticipatory governance, and to attempt to strengthen its resilience in the face of risks from both foreseeable and unforeseeable events. This paper builds further on an initial 'mapping' in mid-2020 of some 66 potential structural risks which could confront Europe over the coming decade, and a second paper last autumn which looked at the EU's capabilities to address 33 of those risks assessed as being more significant or likely, and at the various gaps in policy and instruments at the Union's disposal. Delving deeper in 25 specific areas, this new paper identifies priorities for building greater resilience within the Union system, drawing on the European Parliament's own resolutions and proposals made by other EU institutions, as well as by outside experts and stakeholders. In the process, it highlights some of the key constraints that will need to be addressed if strengthened resilience is to be achieved, as well as the opportunities that follow from such an approach.
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Smart Partnerships amid Great Power Competition: AI, China, and the Global Quest for Digital Sovereignty

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, January 12, 2021
Abstract in English: 
The report captures key takeaways from various roundtable conversations, identifies the challenges and opportunities that different regions of the world face when dealing with emerging technologies, and evaluates China’s role as a global citizen. In times of economic decoupling and rising geopolitical bipolarity, it highlights opportunities for smart partnerships, describes how data and AI applications can be harnessed for good, and develops scenarios on where an AI-powered world might be headed.
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20
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Towards a more resilient Europe post-coronavirus: Capabilities and gaps in the EU's capacity to address structural risks

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, October 1, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The current coronavirus crisis emphasises the need for the European Union to devote more effort to anticipatory governance, notably through analysis of medium- and long-term global trends, as well as structured contingency planning and the stress-testing of existing and future policies. In order to contribute to reflection on and discussion about the implications of the coronavirus pandemic for EU policy-making, this paper builds on an initial 'mapping' of some 66 potential structural risks which could confront Europe over the coming decade. Taking 33 risks which are assessed as being more significant or likely, it looks first at the capabilities which the EU and its Member States already have to address those risks, and then looks at the various gaps in policy and instruments at the Union's disposal, suggesting possible approaches to overcome them in the short and medium terms.
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Number of pages: 
114
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Towards a more resilient Europe post-coronavirus: An initial mapping of structural risks facing the EU

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, July 20, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The current coronavirus crisis emphasises the need for the European Union to devote more effort to anticipatory governance, notably through analysis of medium- and long-term global trends, as well as structured contingency planning and the stress-testing of existing and future policies. In order to contribute to reflection on, and discussion about, the implications of the coronavirus pandemic for EU policy-making, this paper offers an initial ‘mapping’ of some of the potential structural risks which could confront Europe over the coming decade, with 66 such risks analysed briefly in a series of short notes. The document then goes on to take a closer look at some of the more immediate risks to be considered in the near term and outlines possible EU action to prevent or mitigate them over the remainder of the 2019-24 institutional cycle.
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100
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Russian futures 2030 - The shape of things to come

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, September 22, 2020
Abstract in English: 
This Chaillot Paper seeks to provide readers with ambitious foresight analysis and insights on how to be prepared for unexpected twists and turns in Russia’s future trajectory.
The opening chapter highlights a set of key megatrends that will shape how Russia evolves in the decade ahead. Subsequent chapters focus on key sectors and analyse critical uncertainties that will influence Russia’s future course of development. They cover state-society relations in the country; its economic development and the evolution of its military posture; as well as how Russia’s relations with the EU’s eastern neighbours and China may unfold by 2030. Each of these chapters presents three alternative future scenarios. While they zoom in on specific themes and sectors, the concluding section offers a panoramic view of the various possible futures – combining elements of all of the preceding chapters to produce three holistic snapshots of Russia in 2030.
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108
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The EU’s Security and Defence Policy: The Impact of the Coronavirus

Title Original Language: 
The EU’s Security and Defence Policy: The Impact of the Coronavirus
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, April 24, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The current COVID-19 pandemic will change the world, like the fall of the Berlin Wall and the 9/11 terror attacks. For the foreseeable future, EU governments will be preoccupied with dealing with the pandemic’ immediate socio-economic consequences. However, other policy areas will be affected as well. With regard to the EU’s security and defence policy, COVID-19 is likely to extinguish the unprecedented dynamism that has characterised its development since 2016. Its most immediate impact is likely to be decreased funding for several new initiatives such as the European Defence Fund. The pandemic is also likely to reduce the EU’s readiness to address crises in its neighbourhood and may hasten the Union’s relative decline as a global power if its recovery is slow and wrought by prolonged disputes between the member states over the appropriate economic response to the crisis. Yet, the EU should not completely abandon its pre-COVID-19 security and defence agenda. Both during and after the pandemic, the Union will continue to face familiar challenges such as cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns and instability in its neighbourhood.
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11
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Mobilizing the Private Sector in Peace and Reconciliation

Title Original Language: 
Mobilizing the Private Sector in Peace and Reconciliation
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, March 27, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The annual cost of conflict is a trillion dollars, according to calculations by the Institute of Economics and Peace 2017. Clearly wars pose various challenges to business operations and profitability, whilst elusive political stability makes investors hesitant. It is therefore not surprising that private sector actors are increasingly intentional in trying to make a contribution to immediate and long-term peace. Private sector activity in support of peace has met with mixed success, which yields lessons about the potential for business to play a role in peace processes. As international organizations and governments test and improve models for collaboration with the private sector, these lessons are useful in deciding what we can do better together. The following report, authored by a team of researchers from the Graduate Institute Geneva tackles this question: Based on previous involvements of the private sector in peacebuilding, which of its activities can contribute positively to peacebuilding and what lessons can be applied to future interventions?
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Number of pages: 
87
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World climate and security report 2020

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, February 13, 2020
Abstract in English: 
While there has been progress over the past decades, with militaries and security institutions increasingly analyzing and incorporating climate change risks into their assessments, plans and policies, the “World Climate and Security Report 2020” shows that the risks are increasingly urgent, and more must be done. This contributed to the report’s “Key Risks and Opportunities” findings.
This report is published by the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) chaired by Tom Middendorp, former Chief of Defence of the Netherlands and Senior Research Associate at the Clingendael Institute. Louise van Schaik, Head of our EU & Global Affairs Unit & Planetary Security Initiative, is a co-author.
The report is written from the vantage point of international military and security experts, providing a global overview of the security risks of a changing climate, and opportunities for addressing them. It recommends “climate-proofing” international security – including infrastructure, institutions and policies, as well as major emissions reductions to avoid significant-to-catastrophic security threats.
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152
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