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Defence

Global Trendometer - Essays on medium and long-term global trends

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, October 6, 2016
Abstract in English: 
The Global Trendometer takes a close look at specialist analysis from a variety of reputable sources. Robust analysis, both of empirical data and of the historical experience, is central to the search for effective responses to the multiple challenges that are likely to face Europe in coming decades. This new publication does not offer recommendations, but it does seek to draw attention to relevant studies and to prompt reflection on how Europe can address future challenges.
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52
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Estimates of Chinese Military Spending

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Abstract in English: 
There is no clear way to determine how much Chinese strategy shapes military spending versus how Chinese resources shape strategy; the two are always interdependent. An assessment of China’s defense spending does indicate, however, that Chinese economic growth has allowed it to finance a massive modernization program, and radically improve every aspect of its conventional and asymmetric warfare capabilities, including sea-air-missile-nuclear capabilities.
Although estimates of Chinese defense spending vary sharply, there is little controversy that China now dominates Asian military spending and is becoming the premier military power in Asia. This is partly driven by China’s perception of the potential threat from the U.S. and other Asian powers, but is also driven by the fact that China can now afford such efforts, support them largely with its own technology base, and cannot forget its recent past.
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47
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Global Risks 2035: The Search for a New Normal

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Publication date: 
Thursday, September 22, 2016
Abstract in English: 
What will the world be like in 2035? The forecast seems dire. In the four years since Global Trends 2030 was published, the biggest change in the world is the increased risk of major conflict. In 2012, a large-scale US/NATO conflict with Russia or China was close to unthinkable. Now, the post-Cold War security order has broken down, and the consequences are immense, potentially threatening globalization.
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86
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Korean Peninsula Military Modernization Trends

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, September 22, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Military modernization efforts are a key variable when assessing the Korean Peninsula, and one where the shifting strategies and military efforts of the United States and China play an increasingly important role. The modernization trends of all the countries involved in the region have great significance in determining the types of engagement that could be fought. Modernization affects deterrence and assessments of the potential course of any engagement, as well as estimate of types of forces the United States needs to commit to the region, both in times of peace and in times of tension.
There are serious limits to the unclassified data available for comparisons of Northeast Asian military modernization—especially for China and the DPRK. Unclassified sources do not include many smart munitions, they only cover a limited amount of other weaponry, and they do not reflect investments in logistics and transport. They also often do not include battle management, ISR, or Command, Control, Communications, and Computer (C4) assets. These are becoming steadily more critical aspects of military modernization.
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55
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Chinese Space Strategy and Developments

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, August 19, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Competition in space is not a new phenomenon. The Space Race between the Soviet Union and United States was one of the defining aspects of the Cold War era. While astronauts are no longer national celebrities and media coverage has greatly diminished, competition in space remains fierce. The United States, China, Russia, Europe, and numerous others all seek to use outer space in a way that best forwards national interest.

China, in particular, has substantially increased its outer space efforts and capabilities in the post-Cold War era. China’s 2015 Defense White Paper refers to space as the “commanding height in international strategic competition”, and its commitment to active programs further underlines this strategic development. China already possesses advanced space-based C4ISR capabilities, a growing fleet of modern launch vehicles, the BeiDou satellite navigation program comparable to U.S. GPS, an array of counterspace and ASAT weapons (kinetic-kill, directed-energy, co-orbital, and cyber), and an advanced manned space program.
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33
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A Global Strategy for the European Union’s Foreign And Security Policy

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
Abstract in English: 
High Representative Federica Mogherini presented the EU Global Strategy on foreign and security policy to EU leaders meeting in Brussels at the EU summit on 28 June 2016.

Mogherini was mandated to prepare the new strategy by the European Council in June 2015 and invited to present it to leaders in June of this year. The strategy is the result of an open and transparent process: over the past year, extensive consultations took place with the EU Member States, the European institutions (including the European Commission and the European Parliament), and European civil society at large, including think thanks.

The strategy, under the title Shared Vision, Common Action: A Stronger Europe, has been elaborated under the leadership of the High Representative. It reflects the collective views expressed in the process and offers a strategic vision for the EU’s global role. In these challenging times, both for Europe and globally, the strategy highlights common ground and presents a common way forward.
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60
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Toward a New National Security Space Strategy: Time for a Strategic Rebalancing

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, June 17, 2016
Abstract in English: 
There are growing risks and threats to US satellites, civilian and military alike, and challenges to stated US goals in space. The question for the new administration, however, is whether hegemonic means to address those challenges are likely to achieve US goals. It is this paper’s assertion that they are not. Instead, a rebalancing of means used to address US goals in space is now necessary, based on a comprehensive assessment of the strategic space environment through the next ten to twenty years, toward ensuring that the ways and means being pursued to address those goals are in alignment. This assessment must extend beyond the Pentagon as well, to include the rapidly expanding cast of governmental and nongovernmental space actors. In particular, industry representatives should be brought into a process of dialogue with the national space security community to discuss priorities and concerns.
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70
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Due Diligence in Cyberspace - Guidelines for International and European Cyber Policy and Cybersecurity Policy

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, July 1, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Global cyberspace is undergoing fundamental change. There are now frequent references to a “fragmentation of the Internet”, but many European and international working groups are also increasingly aware that “a free, open and at the same time secure Internet” is a global public good. However, the political rules adopted for International and European cyber policies and cybersecurity policies will always lag behind technological developments. It is the more important, therefore, to subject these rules to the over-arching norm of due diligence in cyberspace, and to do so on the national, European and international levels. This generates three requirements for Germany’s future strategic orientation in cyberspace:
- European cooperation: integrating national policies into the European framework;
- Inclusiveness: giving different interest groups broad and publicly accessible representation in formulating policies;
- Civilian response: prioritising the civilian component over the military component, particularly in times of peace.

However, Germany’s major partners are confused as to what goals precisely it is pursuing in cyberspace. It is therefore advisable for Berlin to improve its coordination and communication of responsibilities at the national and EU levels, be it on issues of Internet Governance, the fight against cybercrime, or cyberdefence.
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33
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A “Great Wall of Sand” in the South China Sea?

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, July 8, 2016
Abstract in English: 
China has set new records in the ways, means and speed with which it has expanded its outposts in the South China Sea. Neighbouring states such as Vietnam have also extended their bases on small islands and reefs, but they have done so over many years and not within a few months. The total surface area created by China has been ironically dubbed “The Great Wall of Sand” by the commander of the US Pacific Fleet. Despite Beijing’s claims to the contrary, the expansions signal an emerging militarisation of the South China Sea, whose plentiful resources and energy deposits have long been viewed as potential causes of conflicts.

The South China Sea is currently one of the world’s most contentious zones. But the situation risks becoming even worse, despite the fact that all of the region’s states depend on stable and secure sea lines of communication. At its core, this is a regional conflict about sea routes, territorial claims and resources that primarily involves ASEAN states and China. Nevertheless, it also has global repercussions. First, it concerns a “superhighway of the sea”, on which almost a third of the world’s sea trade is transported. Any impediment to the shipping traffic would have a direct impact on world trade in general but also particularly on Japan and South Korea. Second, the South China Sea is closely connected to the rivalry between Bejing and Washington because important allies and partners of the US are involved in the dispute about China’s territorial claims. Third, it is a conflict about international norms and laws that calls into question a fundamental principle of the liberal world order: “freedom of the seas” versus exclusive maritime zones. This study addresses the main reasons, the development and the implications of the island dispute as well as ways of containing it both regionally and internationally.
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25
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Undersea Warfare in Northern Europe

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, July 21, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Russia is expanding its use of undersea warfare in a broader strategy of coercion aimed at its neighbors, NATO, and the United States. Suspected territorial incursions in the Baltic Sea and provocative patrols in the North Atlantic have not only caused alarm among NATO and partner nations, but have underscored the extent to which U.S. and European antisubmarine warfare capabilities have atrophied since the end of the Cold War.

In this report, the CSIS International Security Program analyzes Russian intentions and capabilities in the near to mid-term and the ability of NATO and partner nations to respond effectively to Russian activities in the undersea domain. The assessment identifies gaps in current Western organizations, capabilities, and posture and offers recommendations as to how NATO and partner nations can meet the Russian challenge in the undersea domain.
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62
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