RSS:

Newsletter subscribe:

Defence

A “Great Wall of Sand” in the South China Sea?

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, July 8, 2016
Abstract in English: 
China has set new records in the ways, means and speed with which it has expanded its outposts in the South China Sea. Neighbouring states such as Vietnam have also extended their bases on small islands and reefs, but they have done so over many years and not within a few months. The total surface area created by China has been ironically dubbed “The Great Wall of Sand” by the commander of the US Pacific Fleet. Despite Beijing’s claims to the contrary, the expansions signal an emerging militarisation of the South China Sea, whose plentiful resources and energy deposits have long been viewed as potential causes of conflicts.

The South China Sea is currently one of the world’s most contentious zones. But the situation risks becoming even worse, despite the fact that all of the region’s states depend on stable and secure sea lines of communication. At its core, this is a regional conflict about sea routes, territorial claims and resources that primarily involves ASEAN states and China. Nevertheless, it also has global repercussions. First, it concerns a “superhighway of the sea”, on which almost a third of the world’s sea trade is transported. Any impediment to the shipping traffic would have a direct impact on world trade in general but also particularly on Japan and South Korea. Second, the South China Sea is closely connected to the rivalry between Bejing and Washington because important allies and partners of the US are involved in the dispute about China’s territorial claims. Third, it is a conflict about international norms and laws that calls into question a fundamental principle of the liberal world order: “freedom of the seas” versus exclusive maritime zones. This study addresses the main reasons, the development and the implications of the island dispute as well as ways of containing it both regionally and internationally.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
25
Share: 

Undersea Warfare in Northern Europe

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, July 21, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Russia is expanding its use of undersea warfare in a broader strategy of coercion aimed at its neighbors, NATO, and the United States. Suspected territorial incursions in the Baltic Sea and provocative patrols in the North Atlantic have not only caused alarm among NATO and partner nations, but have underscored the extent to which U.S. and European antisubmarine warfare capabilities have atrophied since the end of the Cold War.

In this report, the CSIS International Security Program analyzes Russian intentions and capabilities in the near to mid-term and the ability of NATO and partner nations to respond effectively to Russian activities in the undersea domain. The assessment identifies gaps in current Western organizations, capabilities, and posture and offers recommendations as to how NATO and partner nations can meet the Russian challenge in the undersea domain.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
62
Share: 

Evaluating Future U.S. Army Force Posture in Europe

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
Abstract in English: 
This report focuses on recalibrating U.S. Army forces in Europe in light of the security challenges posed by a resurgent Russia and offers 37 recommendations for building and a credible and sustainable deterrence posture in Europe over the next decade. This report opens with a broad overview of the challenges posed by Russia and reviews past and current U.S. Army force posture in Europe. It then identifies and offers recommendations to address sustainment challenges for ongoing U.S. deterrence and reassurance efforts; tackling key military capability areas and gaps; realigning U.S. force posture in Europe; and strengthening civilian efforts and civil-military cooperation.

This report is the second phase of a two-phase study conducted by CSIS reviewing U.S. Army force posture in Europe in light of the recent changes to the regional security environment. The Phase I report (available here) was released in February 2016 and focuses on immediate steps to bolster deterrence and the implications for the Defense Department’s fiscal year (FY) 2017 budget request.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
93
Share: 

European Union in the World 2025: Scenarios for EU relations with its neighbours and strategic partners

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, May 26, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Who would have thought a decade ago that not only the European Union but also its neighbourhood both in the East and in the South would have been turned upside down due to a series of crises? Back in 2006 the EU had gone through a successful ‘big bang’ enlargement absorbing ten Central and Eastern European countries and was about to take two more states on board. The economy was doing well, ideas for establishing a ‘ring of friends’ in the immediate neighbourhood were flowering and Russia was seen as a close partner. Yet things have gone differently than might have expected. The financial crisis, the Arab Spring and its consequences, the Russian annexation of Crimea and the war in Ukraine, the development of ISIS, the war in Syria and the growing number of refugees and migrants from North Africa and the Middle East are challenges the European Union has been facing in recent years.

Although predictions of the end of the European project seem to be premature, it has become obvious that the EU is in a serious crisis, both as an idea and as an organisation and international actor. Therefore simply reacting to crises is no longer an option. The EU desperately needs to think and act strategically if it wants to survive and to have any influence on the global stage.

Above all, it needs to define its future-oriented interests and how these interests can be reconciled with values that the EU attempts to project and protect. Against this backdrop, the Dahrendorf Forum – Debating Europe initiated a foresight project which aimed to set out different scenarios for the future relationship between the European Union and the five countries/regions of the Dahrendorf Forum: Ukraine and Russia, Turkey, MENA, United States and China.

The alternative futures engage in defining the most likely trajectories, downside risks, new trends and ‘unknown unknowns’. By reflecting the forward-looking challenges, the Dahrendorf Foresight Project tries to assess the EU’s role in the world in 2025.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
64
Share: 

A Game Changer? The EU's preparatory action on Defence Research

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, April 18, 2016
Abstract in English: 
The Preparatory Action for Common Security and Defence Policy‐related research is currently under preparation, and it will serve as a test‐bed to prove the relevance of defence‐related research at the European Union‐level. The Preparatory Action could potentially see between €75 ‐ €100 million invested in defence‐specific research over a three‐year period beginning in 2017. The Preparatory Action follows on from a pilot project on CSDP research that was launched by the European Parliament with a budget line of €1.5 million over the 2015‐2016 period. The Preparatory Action aims to serve as a basis for an eventual, fully‐fledged, European Defence Research Programme. Indeed, should the work of the Preparatory Action prove successful, the next step would be to insert a specific thematic area on defence research within the next multi‐annual financial framework (2021‐2027) potentially worth some €3.5 billion.
The idea to specifically invest EU funds in defence research is potentially a ‘gamechanger’. Traditionally, the EU has suffered from important constraints when using EU funds for defence‐related activities. Presently, projects and programmes funded under the European Structural and Investment Funds, COSME (Europe’s programme for SMEs) and Horizon 2020 are still largely geared towards civilian rather than military projects, even though defence‐related projects are not formally excluded. One of the chief objectives of the Preparatory Action and of any eventual European Defence Research Programme is to enhance Europe’s strategic autonomy by investing in key defence technologies.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
14
Share: 

Creative Disruption: Technology, Strategy, and the Future of the Global Defense Industry

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, June 5, 2014
Abstract in English: 
“Creative Disruption: Technology, Strategy, and the Future of the Global Defense Industry” identifies trends in the technology, security and business environments; highlights the disruptive effects of these trends; and offers recommendations for improving the United States’ ability to harness new sources of innovation. This report is the culminating effort of Creative Disruption: The Task Force on Strategy, Technology and Global Defense Industry, a months-long research agenda, co-chaired by the Honorable William J. Lynn III and ADM James Stavridis, USN (Ret.), that included numerous working groups, interviews and surveys.

Authored by Senior Fellow and Director of the Technology and National Security Program Ben FitzGerald and Research Associate Kelley Sayler, with a foreword by Creative Disruption Task Force co-chairs Mr. Lynn and ADM Stavridis, the report highlights the "growing disconnect" between Defense Department (DOD) needs and what the existing business climate and acquisition strategy and structures are able to provide. The report concludes with strategic-level recommendations for increasing DOD’s ability to access and leverage shifting sources of innovation, emanating from both the commercial and traditional defense sectors, including both domestic and international suppliers.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
48
Share: 

The Future of US Global Leadership Implications for Europe, Canada and Transatlantic Cooperation

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, May 10, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Today’s global challenges are developing faster than ever as the world grows more interdependent. Advanced technologies are empowering individuals and organizations in new and unpredictable ways, creating new partnerships but also enabling the rise of new adversaries. A wide array of actors – from non-state groups to rogue states to revisionist powers – are testing these new tools. In parallel, the international system built in the second half of the 20th century is being challenged by emerging regional and global powers, while environmental and other transnational issues have become a determining factor in geopolitics. The resulting complexity and growing number of challenges have made the global security environment more difficult to navigate. It is in this context that the transatlantic relationship is evolving.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
20
Share: 

Report of the Group of Personalities on the Preparatory Action for CSDP-related research

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Abstract in English: 
In 2015, the European Commission invited key personalities from European industry, government, the European Parliament and academia to advise it on establishing a Preparatory Action on Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP)-related research.

The primary mission of this Group of Personalities was to help establish recommendations for a long-term vision for EU-funded CSDP-related research which can boost European defence cooperation. These recommendations address the overall scope and governance of future EU-funded CSDP research and highlight possible collaboration and coordination mechanisms. The overarching goal of the Preparatory Action and CSDP-related research is to create a framework that would facilitate a collaborative approach to defence among the member states.

This report is the result of several months of regular conversation and consultation among a group of experts encompassing the ‘sherpas’, officials from the European Commission and the EUISS.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
110
Share: 

Alliance at Risk

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, February 26, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Despite Russian aggression in Ukraine and growing threats along NATO’s southern flank, many European allies find it difficult to increase their defense capabilities and meet the commitments they made at the Wales Summit. To address this important challenge, the Atlantic Council produced its Alliance at Risk report, which draws together noted experts and former senior officials to examine the vulnerabilities in European defense and provide recommendations on the way forward. The project highlights six leading nations from NATO’s north, south, east, and west, which also serves to illuminate the many perspectives and diverse defense priorities that exists within the Alliance today.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
52
Share: 

Munich Security Report 2015: Collapsing Order, Reluctant Guardians?

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, January 26, 2015
Abstract in English: 
this report described in the press release as "an annual digest on critical questions and important trends in the field of international security policy." The first section of the report focuses on the roles of international actors, Germany, United States, Europe, NATO, Russia, and emerging powers. The second section discusses three "hot spots"-- Ukraine, the Middle East, and Asia Pacific. The third section reviews major issues such as terrorism, energy security, and refugee crises, and the fourth section suggests additional reading and research materials.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Share: 

Pages

Subscribe to RSS - Defence