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Defence

Future (im)perfect? Mapping conflict, violence and extremism in Africa

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, October 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
The central challenge for sub-Saharan Africa is to build accountable, capable governments that can deliver security and inclusive growth. Research into the drivers, trends and characteristics of violence in Africa may help achieve these goals. This paper firstly presents global and African trends in armed conflict since 1960, while looking at armed conflict within the broader context of political violence using recent event data. The fatality burden between key affected countries is also discussed. The paper then turns to an examination of the high levels of non-state conflict in the Middle East and Africa compared to the rest of the world and the systemic imbalances that drive instability. Finally, challenges in measuring the relative contribution of violent Islamist extremism to political violence are presented.
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24
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The Global Risks Report 2016

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Abstract in English: 
The Global Risks Report 2016 features perspectives from nearly 750 experts on the perceived impact and likelihood of 29 prevalent global risks over a 10-year timeframe. The risks are divided into five categories: economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological.

The report also examines the interconnections among the risks, and through that analysis explores three areas where global risks have the greatest potential to impact society. These are the concept of the “(dis)empowered citizen”, the impact of climate change on food security, and the potential of pandemics to threaten social cohesion.

The report also takes an in-depth look at the how the global security landscape could evolve in the future; sharing the outcomes of a year-long study to examine current trends and possible driving forces for the future of international security.
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103
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Global System on the Brink: Pathways toward a New Normal

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, December 2, 2015
Abstract in English: 
“Global System on the Brink: Pathways toward a New Normal” is a joint study by the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Initiative and the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO). Work on this joint assessment of global trends began before the onset of the recent crisis in US-Russian relations, but is more relevant than ever today as we seek to avoid a greater conflict and achieve a new normal of cooperation between Russia and the West. In keeping with previous forecasting works published by the Atlantic Council and the IMEMO, the study examines current trends and potential scenarios for global developments over the next twenty years.

Despite the rapid globalization of the past few decades, which promised cooperation and integration, the potential for major state conflict is on the rise due to deep fragmentation within and between societies. The old confrontation between capitalism and communism has given way to conflicts of moral values with nationalist, religious, and historical-psychological overtones. The worst outcome would be the emergence of a new bipolarity, pitting a group of states centered around China and Russia against the United States and some European and Asian allies. However serious the current situation, the study emphasizes the opportunities for narrowing differences.
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22
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First Steps towards a Multidimensional Autonomy Risk Assessment (MARA) in Weapons Systems

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, December 5, 2015
Abstract in English: 
The purpose of – and the motivation be-hind – this study is to move the debate on autonomy in weapons systems ahead by introducing some more conceptual clarity and definitional rigor. To that end, we offer a new instrument for conducting a multidimensional autonomy risk assessment (MARA) in weapons systems. By quantifying and computing key descriptive characteristics (“vectors”) of systems to gauge their autonomous and military capabilities, the instrument can be used to generate a comprehensive overview over weapons systems deployed currently and in the near future. This way, it can assist policy-makers in coming to an informed decision on the possible establishment of a politically defined maximum of autonomy in weapons systems.
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NATO's New Strategy: Stability Generation

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, September 14, 2015
Abstract in English: 
The new threat landscape the transatlantic community faces means that NATO must adapt its strategy to remain relevant. While many transatlantic policymakers and thought leaders have called for a new strategy for NATO, few have outlined what that strategy should actually entail. This report proposes that NATO adopt a new strategy called "Stability Generation," built on the concept of ensuring stability in the NATO region and reducing the threat of significant conflicts in NATO's neighborhood.

To accomplish this, NATO must add resilience as a core task to its existing tasks of collective defense, crisis management, and cooperative security. NATO must also enhance capabilities in the East against conventional and hybrid conflicts, in the South against instability arising from conflicts and extremism in neighbor¬ing countries, and across the Alliance to decrease vulnerabilities and enhance resilience, particularly with respect to cybersecurity.
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21
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For a European White Paper on the Security of Europe

Title Original Language: 
Télécharger
Abstract Original Language: 
EuroDéfense-France s’est interrogée sur l’intérêt, mais aussi les difficultés, les risques et les conditions à satisfaire pour réaliser un livre blanc européen sur la sécurité et la défense. Son travail ne préjuge en aucune manière des résultats d’un tel exercice, qui pourrait conduire à plus d'intégration, ou simplement à un partage gagnant-gagnant résultant d’une subsidiarité bien comprise et appliquée de manière intelligente.

Une synthèse des principales réflexions d’Eurodéfense-France est exposée ci-après. Elle est articulée autour de 4 questions:
- pourquoi a-t-on besoin d’un livre blanc européen sur la sécurité et la défense?
- quels sont les obstacles à résoudre et les opportunités à exploiter pour le faire?
- comment le réaliser: contenu et processus?
- comment l’exploiter à Bruxelles et dans les capitales?
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
EuroDéfense team has examined the interest, and also the difficulties, the risks and the conditions necessary to complete a European White Paper on security and defence. In no way does this work prejudge the results of an exercise like this which might lead to greater integration or simply to win-win sharing resulting from subsidiarity that is fully understand and implemented intelligently. A summary of the main ideas is set out in four questions:
- Why do we need a European White Paper on security and defence?
- What obstacles have to be overcome and which opportunities can be used to do so?
- How should it be achieved: content and procedure?
- How could it be used in Brussels and in the Member States?
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20
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Present and Future of Civilian Drones

Title Original Language: 
Présent et futur des drones civils
Abstract Original Language: 
L’Académie de l’air et de l’espace (AAE) et l’Association aéronautique et astronautique de France (3AF) s’efforcent de focaliser leur attention et leurs réflexions sur des sujets qui leur semblent importants en matière de développement innovant des activités dans l’air et dans l’espace.
Ainsi les progrès technologiques permettent-ils aujourd’hui de concevoir et réaliser des aéronefs sans équipage à bord. Dans le domaine militaire, on assiste depuis des décennies au développement et à l’utilisation opérationnelle de drones de reconnaissance et même, plus récemment, de drones armés. Dans le secteur des drones civils, dont le développement est beaucoup plus récent, le foisonnement des idées est très impressionnant, accompagné d’une montée exponentielle du nombre d’opérateurs et de drones en opération. Les technologies permettent de réaliser des drones de petite taille dont les coûts d’acquisition et d’exploitation sont faibles. Émerge ainsi un marché de services proposés bien souvent par de jeunes entreprises innovantes. Les maires de nos villes et villages achètent des vues aériennes de leur territoire. Les agriculteurs peuvent surveiller leurs cultures, et définir les traitements appropriés. Les propriétaires d’infrastructures comme EDF, SNCF, GRT Gaz envisagent une utilisation de plus en plus intensive des drones pour inspecter les voies, les lignes, les viaducs, souvent difficiles d’accès. Après la télévision, depuis plusieurs années déjà grande utilisatrice de drones, le cinéma à son tour commence à utiliser ces systèmes innovants.
Cette multiplication des applications des drones pourrait représenter un danger potentiel pour les personnes et les biens et rendre difficile leur intégration dans un espace aérien déjà très encombré.
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
The Air and Space Academy (AAE) and the Association Aéronautique et Astronautique de France (French Aerospace Society, 3AF) endeavour to focus their attention and reflections on important issues linked to innovative development activities in air and space.
Today, for instance, technological progress has led to the design and manufacture of unmanned aircraft. In the military field, recent decades have witnessed the development and operational use of Unmanned Air Systems (UAS) or Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS) for Intelligence/Surveillance/Reconnaissance missions and even more recently, for weapon delivery. In the more recent civilian drone sector, the explosion of ideas has been impressive, with an exponential rise in the number of drone operators and missions. We now have the technological capacity to produce small RPAS that are cheap to buy and to run. This is inspiring a services market, often proposed by innovative young companies. The mayors of our cities and towns are purchasing aerial views of their area. Farmers can monitor their crops and define appropriate treatments. Infrastructure owners such as EDF, SNCF and GRT Gaz are envisaging using drones in an increasingly intensive way to inspect tracks, lines and bridges that are often difficult to access. For several years, television has been a major user of drones and now filmmakers are also starting to use these innovative systems.
This proliferation of drone applications may represent a potential hazard to people and goods and makes their integration into an already congested airspace very complicated.
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76
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Recommendations to avoid a strategic downgrading of Europe in the field of Combat Aviation

Title Original Language: 
Recommandations pour éviter un déclassement stratégique de l’Europe dans le domaine de L’Aviation de combat
Abstract Original Language: 
L’Académie de l’air et de l’espace (AAE), observant, au travers des nombreux exemples récents, qu’aucun conflit ne peut désormais plus se passer d’une aviation de combat performante, considère que l’Europe court le risque de perdre l’avance et l’indépendance de sa puissance aérienne alors que l’industrie d’aviation de combat est le moteur de la haute technologie et des emplois de haut niveau.
Comment faire pour éviter cette mort annoncée face à une concurrence internationale de plus en plus vive ? Comment protéger la base industrielle solide qui existe encore aujourd’hui mais qui nécessite d’être entretenue par des projets concrets de démonstrateurs et de développements européens ?
Si l’Europe souhaite conserver son indépendance stratégique dans les systèmes aériens de défense et ainsi conserver son rang dans le monde multipolaire de demain, des décisions importantes doivent être prises et financées rapidement.
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, November 16, 2013
Abstract in English: 
The Air and Space Academy having noted, through a study of the many recent examples, that air warfare scenarios without advanced combat aircraft are no longer feasible, considers that Europe is running the risk of losing its advanced air power independence, in spite of the fact that the combat aircraft industry is a driving force for advanced technologies and qualified employment.
How to avoid this imminent demise, faced with stiffer and stiffer international competition? How to protect the strong industrial base which still exists today but which must be maintained through concrete demonstrators and European development
programmes?
If Europe wishes to secure its future strategic air power independence and thus maintain its place in the newly emerging multipolar world, urgent action must be decided on and funded.
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13
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Japan's Security Role and Capabilities in the 2020s

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, November 13, 2015
Abstract in English: 
Security challenges in East Asia are becoming acute. North Korea is developing a missile-deliverable nuclear weapon, and the long-term stability of the Pyongyang regime is questionable. Taiwan, which Beijing claims as part of Chinese territory, is about to have a presidential election in which a candidate from a pro-independence party is the front-runner. China has also become increasingly assertive in its territorial disputes with Japan and several Southeast Asian countries. Meanwhile, Japan's leaders are attempting to redefine the role Japan plays in regional security affairs. Indeed, Japan's legislature recently enacted revisions to the country's national security laws that would loosen limitations on the use of Japan's armed forces, and the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has pledged to increase defense spending
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40
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2016 Global Forecast

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Sunday, November 15, 2015
Abstract in English: 
An annual collection of wide-ranging essays by CSIS experts, 2016 Global Forecast discusses the issues that will matter most to America and the world’s security and prosperity in the year ahead.
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148
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