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Development

The New Global Puzzle. What World for the EU in 2025?

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Abstract in English: 
The EUISS has conducted a wide-ranging exercise to detect the long-term trends, factors and actors shaping the global environment of European integration - The New Global Puzzle. This Report illustrates the evolution of the key structural factors affecting change over the two decades to come - demography, the economy, energy, the environment, science and technology - and addresses some of the main questions concerning the future of the international system. The Report also includes seven regional outlooks exploring prospective developments of relevance to the European Union in Russia/Eurasia, the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, the United States, China, India and Latin America.

Many critical junctures can be envisaged over the decades to come, from energy supply shocks to environmental catastrophes, from renewed confrontation between large state powers to a systemic breakdown of the Middle East. The development of the European Union into a fully-fledged global actor requires a shared assessment of the future challenges, threats and opportunities with which it will be confronted, and of the best options to drive, as opposed to endure, change.

This Report argues that the biggest challenge confronting the EU will be to reconcile the emerging multipolar international system with a sustainable, effective multilateral order. The Report is intended as a first step in paving the way towards further reflection on the future position and role of the EU in the world. Both experts and the policy-making community, at the European and national levels, need to engage in this debate with a view to defining common, effective responses to tomorrow's challenges.
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Practising strategic foresight in government. The cases of Finland, Singapore and the European Union

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Abstract in English: 
The book discusses the principles of public strategic foresight, and defines the other interrelated concepts of foresight domain and strategic management. It compares the current practice of strategic foresight in Finland, Singapore and several selected European Union's countries' public decision making, and attempts to answer the questions, "What could be done to strengthen the linkage between foresight and decision making?" and "How could we develop our foresight systems to answer better the needs of public decision making?" The answers to these questions are gathered from interviews of nine international experts who represent different domains of strategic foresight.
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Global trends and the future of Latin America. Why and how Latin America should think about the future

Title Original Language: 
Tendencias globales y el futuro de América Latina. ¿Por qué y cómo América Latina debe pensar en el futuro
Abstract Original Language: 
El diseño de políticas públicas en America Latina adolece de escasa profundidad estratégica e insuficiente perspectiva de largo plazo. Ello limita la posibilidad de aprovechar oportunidades o contener riesgos a tiempo. Numerosos países desarrollados de Europa y Asia han fortalecido estas capacidades.America Latina puede ganar conociendo y participando activamente en estos análisis. Este texto (libro) busca contribuir a esta tarea presentando una síntesis de 6 tendencias globales dominantes (y explorando escenarios posibles), identificadas por los principales grupos de prospectiva de países avanzados. En seguida se explora el efecto potencial de tales tendencias y escenarios sobre cada una de 5 metas prioritarias destacadas por gobiernos, líderes políticos y sociales y expertos de los países latinoamericanos. En particular, se abordan los temas de gobernabilidad, desigualdad, productividad, integración y alianzas internacionales, desarrollo sustentable y cambio climático. Luego se deducen aquellas áreas que ameritan un seguimiento permanente, incluyendo las estrategias y políticas de naciones avanzadas e innovadoras. Por último se señala como organizar esta función prospectiva y reflexión estratégica en gobiernos e institutos, y la conveniencia de articular una red latinoamericana. Al lector se ofrece los vínculos directos a los estudios referidos.
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Sunday, December 1, 2013
Abstract in English: 
Latin America must strengthen its ability to plan forward and deepen its strategic reflection if it is to govern better and improve the design of public policies.
Achieving this may require countries in the region to familiarize themselves with global scenarios and to explore the types and scale of challenges that they might confront. A national perspective is not sufficient, a global vision is essential. Globalization creates a stream of effects that cannot be controlled by individual countries. With an outlook that takes into consideration the rest of the world, Latin American governments could improve their capacity to anticipate events and, when those events occur, to effectively respond to uncertainty and rapid change. Through strategic planning that envisions a myriad of diverse situations, countries of the region may be able to skirt damage or even identify advantageous responses. In effect, human action might alter trajectories in ways that could bring the region closer to desirable outcomes. In this study, Sergio Bitar sets out to explore the nature and potential impact of trends and scenarios that could emerge and he makes recommendations for building anticipatory capacity. The first part of this report summarizes the global trends and scenarios [...] the scenarios are based on reports from leading research centers in developed countries. In the second part, he identifies
where Latin America—both individual countries and the region as a whole—should focus. He then underscores the fields in which countries of the region should strengthen their capacity for foresight study.
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The final countdown: prospects for ending extreme poverty by 2030

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, April 1, 2013
Abstract in English: 
Over a billion people worldwide live on less than $1.25 a day. But that number is falling. This has given credence to the idea that extreme poverty can be eliminated in a generation. A new study by Brookings researchers examines the prospects for ending extreme poverty by 2030 and the factors that will determine progress toward this goal. Below are some of the key findings:

1. We are at a unique point in history where there are more people in the world living right around the $1.25 mark than at any other income level. This implies that equitable growth in the developing world will result in more movement of people across the poverty line than across any other level.

2. Sustaining the trend rate of global poverty reduction requires that each year a new set of individuals is primed to cross the international poverty line. This will become increasingly difficult as some of the poorest of the poor struggle to make enough progress to approach the $1.25 threshold over the next twenty years.

3. The period from 1990 to 2030 resembles a relay race in which responsibility for leading the charge on global poverty reduction passes between China, India and sub-Saharan Africa. China has driven progress over the last twenty years, but with its poverty rate now down in the single digits, the baton is being passed to India. India has the capacity to deliver sustained progress on global poverty reduction over the next decade based on modest assumptions of equitable growth. Once India’s poverty is largely exhausted, it will be up to sub-Saharan Africa to run the final relay leg and bring the baton home. This poses a significant challenge as most of Africa’s poor people start a long way behind the poverty line.

4. As global poverty approaches zero, it becomes increasingly concentrated in countries where the record of and prospects for poverty reduction are weakest. Today, a third of the world’s poor live in fragile states but this share could rise to half in 2018 and nearly two-thirds in 2030.

5. The World Bank has recently set a goal to reduce extreme poverty around the world to under 3 percent by 2030. It is unlikely that this goal can be achieved by stronger than expected growth across the developing world, or greater income equality within each developing country, alone. Both factors are needed simultaneously.
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Which production for Europe? An introduction to the national debate "Quelle France dans 10 ans?"

Title Original Language: 
Quel modèle productif? Note d'introduction au débat national "Quelle France dans 10 ans?"
Abstract Original Language: 
Au lendemain de la Seconde Guerre mondiale la France a su mettre en place un modèle productif efficace qui lui a assuré une croissance soutenue et un taux de chômage faible : ce sont les “Trente Glorieuses”. Ce modèle, qui avait commencé à montrer ses limites dans les années 1980, s’est difficilement adapté à la mondialisation et au renouvellement accéléré des produits et des processus induit par l’innovation. Les atouts de la France dans certains domaines (infrastructures, très grandes entreprises, formation des élites, démographie) sont compensés par de réelles faiblesses dans d’autres, le chômage a augmenté et les positions dans l’échange international se sont continuellement dégradées. La croissance potentielle a ralenti.

Ces résultats sont la conséquence d’un ensemble de facteurs, comme la faiblesse du secteur exposé à la concurrence internationale, la stagnation des gains de productivité globale des facteurs, la baisse de la rentabilité des entreprises qui pèse sur leur capacité à innover et donc à exporter, un marché du travail dual, un système de formation initiale et continue rigide, une mauvaise coordination des institutions sur lesquelles repose ce modèle productif. La France doit aujourd’hui faire des choix décisifs pour rendre plus performant son modèle productif, tout en organisant sa transition vers une croissance soutenable. Ces choix portent notamment sur l’articulation entre le système de formation et l’emploi, l’organisation du marché du travail, le degré de concurrence dans le secteur abrité, la gouvernance et le financement des entreprises, ainsi que l’insertion dans le commerce international.

Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, September 26, 2013
Abstract in English: 
In the aftermath of the Second World War, France established an effective production model that ensured steady growth and low unemployment: a 30-year post-war boom that became known as the “Trente Glorieuses”. That model began to reach its limits in the 1980s, and was ill suited to face globalisation, as well as the accelerated pace of product and process revisions induced by innovation. France’s strengths in certain domains (infrastructure, major corporations, a well-trained elite, demography) were offset by real weaknesses in others; unemployment rose and its international trade position deteriorated continuously. Potential growth slowed. These results are the consequence of a set of factors, including the weakness of the sectors exposed to international competition, stagnation in Total Factor Productivity (TFP), a decline in corporate profitability that impedes their ability to innovate and therefore to export, a dual labour market, a rigid system of initial and continuing education, and poor coordination amongst the institutions that underpin that production model. France must now make critical choices to increase the performance of its production model while organising the transition to sustainable growth. In particular, these choices bear upon the relationship between the training system and employment, the organisation of the labour market, the level of competition in the protected sector, corporate governance and finance, and presence in international trade.
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Global trends 2030: alternative worlds

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Abstract in English: 
The National Intelligence Council's (NIC) Global Trends Report engages expertise from outside government on factors of such as globalization, demography and the environment, producing a forward-looking document to aid policymakers in their long term planning on key issues of worldwide importance.Since the first report was released in 1997, the audience for each Global Trends report has expanded, generating more interest and reaching a broader audience that the one that preceded it. A new Global Trends report is published every four years following the U.S. presidential election.
Global Trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. As with the NIC’s previous Global Trends reports, NIC does not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead provides a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications.In-depth research, detailed modeling and a variety of analytical tools drawn from public, private and academic sources were employed in the production of Global Trends 2030. NIC leadership engaged with experts in nearly 20 countries—from think tanks, banks, government offices and business groups—to solicit reviews of the report.

The world is transforming at an unprecedented rate: it took Britain 155 years to double GDP per capita, with about 9 million people in 1870 . . . The US and Germany took between 30 and 60 years with a few tens of million people . . . but India and China are doing this at a scale and pace not seen before: 100 times the people than Britain and in one tenth the time. By 2030 Asia will be well on its way to returning to being the world’s powerhouse, just as it was before 1500.
But it is not totally back to the future: the world has been transformed in other ways. By 2030, majorities in most countries will be middle-class, not poor, which has been the condition of most people throughout human history.
Global population in urban areas is expanding quickly:
And the pace of technological change will accelerate: Absorption of new technologies by Americans has become much more rapid. The absorption rate in developing states is also quickening, allowing these states to leapfrog stages of development that advanced economies had to pass through.

This report is intended to stimulate thinking about this rapid, vast array of geopolitical, economic, and technological changes transforming our world today and their potential trajectories over the next 15-20 years. The NIC begins by identifying what it sees as the most important megatrends of our transforming world— individual empowerment, the diffusion of power to multifaceted networks and from West to East and South, demographic patterns highlighted by aging populations and exploding middle classes, and natural resource challenges. These megatrends are knowable. By themselves they point to a transformed world, but the world could transform itself in radically different ways. We are heading into uncharted waters. The NIC contends that the megatrends are interacting with six variables or game-changers that will determine what kind of transformed world we will inhabit in 2030. These game-changers—questions about the global economy, national and global governance, the nature of conflict, regional spillover, advancing technologies, and the United States’ role in the international arena—are the raw elements that could sow the seeds of global disruption or incredible advances. Based on what the NIC knows about the megatrends, and by positing the possible interactions between the megatrends and the game-changers, the NIC envisions four potential worlds. At one end of the spectrum is a Stalled Engines world in which the risks of interstate conflict increase and the US retrenches. At the other extreme is a newly rebalanced and Fused world in which social, economic, technological, and political progress is widespread. In the middle are two other
possibilities: a Gini-Out-of-the-Bottle world in which inequalities dominate or a Nonstate World in which nonstate actors flourish both for good and ill. None of these outcomes is inevitable. The future world order will be shaped by human agency as much as unfolding trends and unanticipated events. In describing potential futures, the NIC identifies inflection points as well as opportunities and risks to help readers think about strategies for influencing the world’s trajectory.
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Sustainable Development in the 21st century (SD21)

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Abstract in English: 
The "Sustainable Development Knowledge Platform" supported by the United Nations proposes reports of analyses conducted by the UN on sustainability. Many areas are covered: food and agriculture, urbanisation, land management, economy, energy,...
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The Future of Global Poverty in a Multi-Speed World: New Estimates of Scale and Location, 2010–2030

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
Abstract in English: 
The data available for assessing the current status and trends of global poverty has significantly improved. And yet serious contentions remain. At the same time, a set of recent papers has sought to use these datasets to make poverty projections. Such projections have significant policy implications because they are used to inform debates on the future scale, nature, and objectives of international aid. Unfortunately, those papers have not yielded a consistent picture of future (and even current) global poverty even though their estimates are all derived from the same basic (PPP and distribution) datasets. In this paper we introduce a new model of growth, inequality and poverty. This new model allows for systematic, methodologically transparent, comparative analyses of estimates of poverty in the future based on a range of different methods. We use the model to explore how estimates of the scale and location of future poverty varies by approach.
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Benchmarking Working Europe 2013

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, April 1, 2013
Abstract in English: 
Widening economic and social gaps among EU member states, as well as among different groups and categories of citizens within society, are not only placing in jeopardy the future of Social Europe but threatening to undermine also the whole project of European integration. The post-2008 recession and debt crisis, helped along by EU leaders’ obstinate clinging to the failing remedies of fiscal austerity, have accelerated the disenchantment of millions of European citizens with the half-century-old project to build and consolidate a European Union. This is one of the most striking conclusions of the ETUI’s Benchmarking Working Europe report for 2013.
Benchmarking Working Europe is one of the ETUI’s regularly appearing flagship publications. Issued annually since 2002, the report offers an alternative perspective on EU developments. Using publicly accessible data, it reveals what is actually going on behind the EU social and economic affairs headlines. After last year’s issue focused on growing inequality in Europe, this year’s Benchmarking Working Europe report will demonstrate by means of hard-hitting graphs and cogent arguments that Europe is, rather than converging, actually drifting apart in numerous respects.
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Global Europe 2050

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Abstract in English: 
We can rise to the Europe 2020 challenges of dealing with an ageing population, securing sustainable resources, developing clean energy supplies, improving healthcare and combating climate change – but only if we take effective short, medium and long term action. This is why the European Commission asked twenty five leading analysts to look into the future and work through a number of scenarios to see where the EU might be in 2050. Their work, presented in this Global Europe 2050 report, analyses three key scenarios which describe different but nonetheless possible pathways that Europe could choose to follow over the decades to come.
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