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Development

Strategic Foresight: How to Enhance the Implementation of 2030 Sustainable Development Goals in Developing Countries

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, January 18, 2016
Abstract in English: 
This publication is the third in a series of newsletters dedicated to raising awareness of global trends analysis and how future scenarios may affect Latin America. It summarizes a report by the UN Economic and Social Council on the importance of strengthening strategic predictive capabilities for policy makers, particularly in developing countries.

The report, Strategic foresight for the post-2015 development agenda, delineates the priorities of the UN Commission on Science and Technology for Development.

The summary accompanies a presentation by Dialogue senior fellow Sergio Bitar to the commission in May 2015 in Geneva, designed to complement the main ideas and proposals in their report. We are also pleased to include an essay by Amy Zalman, CEO and president of the World Future Society, on governance as it relates to anticipating global trends.
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10
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The Costs of Meeting the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal Targets on Drinking Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, January 16, 2016
Abstract in English: 
A dedicated goal for water has recently been endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly as part of the sustainable development goal (SDG) framework. This study provides an assessment of the global costs of meeting the WASH-related targets of Goal #6. The targets assessed include achieving universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all (target 6.1), achieving access to adequate and equitable sanitation and hygiene for all, and ending open defecation (target 6.2). The estimates include 140 countries, or 85% of the world's population, focusing on developing countries. Costs estimated cover those of capital investment, program delivery, operations, and major capital maintenance.
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64
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ASEAN Strategic Action Plan for SME Development 2016-2025

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
Abstract in English: 
ASEAN is now at the final phase of the implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint. Under the third pillar “Equitable Economic Development”, the development of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) is highlighted where the progress of SMEs is key towards narrowing the development gap.

The establishment of the AEC, expected by the end of 2015, involves initiatives for regional economic integration. Work to deepen both internal and external integration will continue to evolve beyond 2015. It is anticipated that the enhanced movement of goods, services, investment, capital and skilled labour will attract investment and enhance economic activities in ASEAN. While this will open up new opportunities, at the same time, such benefits of integration must also be fully recognized by SMEs in the ASEAN region.
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42
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ASEAN Transport Strategic Plan for 2016-2025

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, January 11, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Transport has been recognised by the ASEAN Leaders as the very basis of the ASEAN economic development and integration as it plays a crucial role in the movement of goods, services, capital and people. It also provides great support in binding ASEAN’s economies closer together and in building the ASEAN Economic Community that is so vital for the future of ASEAN nations.
The ASEAN Strategic Transport Plan / Brunei Action Plan (BAP), which was adopted by the Sixteenth ASEAN Transport Ministers (ATM) Meeting in November 2010, serves as the main reference guiding ASEAN transport cooperation and integration as well as identifies strategic actions to be implemented in the period 2011-2015. The BAP also supports the new priority of enhancing regional connectivity identified in the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC).
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78
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ASEAN 2025: Forging Ahead Together

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Abstract in English: 
ASEAN was proclaimed a Community through a Declaration signed by ASEAN Leaders at their 27th Summit in Kuala Lumpur on 22 November 2015. This is a historic development and important milestone in the evolvement of ASEAN since its founding in 1967. An ASEAN Community is the realisation of the vision articulated eight years ago by ASEAN Leaders for the regional organisation to achieve community status by 2015.

ASEAN 2025: Forging Ahead Together, which was simultaneously endorsed by the Leaders at their 27th Summit, charts the path for ASEAN Community building over the next ten years. It is a forward looking roadmap that articulates ASEAN goals and aspirations to realise further consolidation, integration and stronger cohesiveness as a Community. ASEAN is working towards a Community that is 'politically cohesive, economically integrated, and socially responsible'. The ASEAN 2025 Document is the outcome of a year of planning and intense discussions, and reflects the determination of Member States to forge ahead with the next phase of ASEAN's evolvement.
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136
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Achieving Zero Hunger

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, October 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
This paper provides estimates of investment costs, both public and private, required to eliminate chronic dietary energy deficits, or to achieve zero hunger by 2030. This target is consistent with achieving both the Sustainable Development Goal 2, to eliminate hunger by 2030, and the Sustainable Development Goal 1, to eradicate poverty. The study adopts a reference 'baseline' scenario, reflecting a “business as usual” situation, to estimate the additional investment requirements. In this scenario, around 650 million people will still suffer from hunger in 2030. We then estimate the investment requirements to eliminate hunger by 2030. Hunger is eliminated through a combination of social protection and targeted “pro-poor” rural investments. The first component aims to bring the poor immediately to the US$1.25/day poverty line income in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms through social protection for a “Transfer to cover the Poverty Gap” (PGT). The second component requires additional investment to accelerate pro-poor rural growth of incomes and employment particularly in rural areas, where most of the poor live, than in the business as usual scenario. Targeted pro-poor rural, including rural and agricultural, investments are required to raise the earned incomes of the poor. This would, in turn, reduce the need for social protection to cover the PGT. The analysis is complemented by looking at alternative ways to achieve such pro-poor rural growth.
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39
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The Future of Jobs: Employment, Skills and Workforce Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, January 18, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Today, we are at the beginning of a Fourth Industrial Revolution. Developments in genetics, artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology, 3D printing and biotechnology, to name just a few, are all building on and amplifying one another. This will lay the foundation for a revolution more comprehensive and all-encompassing than anything we have ever seen. Smart systems—homes, factories, farms, grids or cities—will help tackle problems ranging from supply chain management to climate change. The rise of the sharing economy will allow people to monetize everything from their empty house to their car.
While the impending change holds great promise, the patterns of consumption, production and employment created by it also pose major challenges requiring proactive adaptation by corporations, governments and individuals. Concurrent to the technological revolution are a set of broader socio-economic, geopolitical and demographic drivers of change, each interacting in multiple directions and intensifying one another. As entire industries adjust, most occupations are undergoing a fundamental transformation. While some jobs are threatened by redundancy and others grow rapidly, existing jobs are also going through a change in the skill sets required to do them. The debate on these transformations is often polarized between those who foresee limitless new opportunities and those that foresee massive dislocation of jobs. In fact, the reality is highly specific to the industry, region and occupation in question as well as the ability of various stakeholders to manage change.
The Future of Jobs Report is a first step in becoming specific about the changes at hand. It taps into the knowledge of those who are best placed to observe the dynamics of workforces—Chief Human Resources and Strategy Officers—by asking them what the current shifts mean, specifically for employment, skills and recruitment across industries and geographies. In particular, we have introduced a new measure—skills stability—to quantify the degree of skills disruption within an occupation, a job family or an entire industry. We have also been able to provide an outlook on the gender dynamics of the changes underway, a key element in understanding how the benefits and burdens of the Fourth Industrial Revolution will be distributed.
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167
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South Africa’s Second Term at the UN Security Council: Managing Expectations, ISS Situation Report

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Abstract in English: 
The re-election of the Republic of South Africa as a non-permanent member of the United Nations (UN) Security Council for 2011 to 2012 follows shortly after its previous tenure from 2007 to 2008, and has attracted attention from a variety of quarters. Much of this attention is the result of selective interpretations in the West of the country’s conduct during its previous tenure.1 This is unfortunate because the associated caricature of Africa’s largest economy, the only African member of the G20 and which aspires to membership of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and to permanent membership of the UN Security Council, prevents a serious interrogation of its potential role on the Council during the next two years.
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23
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African futures 2050- the next forty years, ISS monograph

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Abstract in English: 
In this monograph the Institute for Security Studies and the Pardee Center for International Futures provide an extensive analysis of the projected course of African development to 2050. Combining the deep and wide knowledge of Africa within the ISS with extensive use of the IFs modelling system, this discussion goes beyond past work in a number of ways. It looks across most major issue arenas: demographics, economics, sociopolitical change, the environment and human development itself, including health and education. It explores further into our future than perhaps any other extensive study of African futures has ever done. While not pushing forward specific policy initiatives, it provides a context within which those who pursue sustainable human development can consider policies.
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66
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The future of intrastate conflict in Africa More violence or greater peace?

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Abstract in English: 
This paper analyses future trends for intrastate conflict in Africa up to 2050 using the International Futures (IFs) model. After reviewing the main post-Cold War patterns of conflict and instability on the continent, the paper discusses seven key correlations associated with intrastate conflict in Africa. It then points to a number of reasons for the changing outlook, including the continued salience of various ‘structural’ conditions that drive intrastate violence even during rapid economic growth, recent improvements in human development alongside a strengthened regional and international conflict prevention, conflict resolution and peacebuilding regime. Finally, the paper explores how multipolarity may impact on stability and forecasts trends for intrastate conflict in West, Southern, Horn/East and Central Africa. The authors expect large-scale violence to continue its steady decline, although the risk of instability and violence is likely to persist, and even increase in some instances.
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24
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