Development

Africa out to 2045 is published by the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) as part of its Strategic Trends Programme.This is a continuous programme of research which seeks to provide policy makers in the Ministry of Defence and wider government with a strategic context for long term decision making. It follows on from the fifth edition of DCDC’s Global Strategic Trends publication, Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2045 (published in 2014). It seeks to give a sense of the scale and complexity of the challenges and opportunities that Africa is likely to experience over the next 3 decades.

The survey covers the whole of the African continent, identifying the trends which are likely to shape the future of Africa and examining the impact of these at the continental and regional level. In so doing, it highlights both the diversity of the continent and the common challenges faced by much of its population. And recognises Africa’s enormous potential for development and growth and the opportunities which this will bring. Having done so, the survey then highlights the main defence and security implications arising out of the trends identified in this study, to support UK planning and policy in relation to the continent.

The world is facing a major shift in demographics. In fact, by 2050, Africa will be home to a billion young people. With so many of the world’s youth concentrated in Africa, countries have the advantage of large working-age populations, and could be looking to capitalize on a “demographic dividend.”

But the economic contribution of young people will depend on the skills they possess, placing a premium on education. Unfortunately, many countries in Africa are struggling to educate their current youth, and projections in coming decades predict millions more will be left behind. According to the latest UNESCO Global Education Monitoring Report, based on current trends, sub-Saharan Africa will not achieve universal secondary school completion until after 2080. On top of the issue of schooling completion, millions of young people who do complete school still lack even basic literacy and numeracy skills, and recent estimates from the Education Commission find that more than half the world’s youth in 2030 will not meet even low levels of proficiency.

The report finds that if the region and world move ahead as expected, 57 million more Latin Americans and Caribbean citizens will join the middle class over the fourteen-year period. Annual regional GDP growth will be 2.4 percent, slightly outperforming the US rate of 2.2 percent. But the region will face significant challenges ranging from income inequality to its demography and the impact of climate change.

Never before has inequality been so high on the agenda of policy-makers worldwide, or such a hot topic for social science research. More journal articles are being published on the topic of inequality and social justice today than ever before.
This is the Summary of the 2016 World Social Science Report. It draws on the insights of over 100 social scientists and other thought leaders from all over the world, across various disciplines, to emphasize transformative responses to inequality at all levels, from the grass-roots to global governance.
It concludes that:
- unchecked inequality could jeopardize the sustainability of economies, societies and communities;
- inequalities should not just be understood and tackled in terms of income and wealth: they are economic, political, social, cultural, environmental, spatial and knowledge-based;
- the links and intersections between inequalities need to be better understood to create fairer societies;
- a step change towards a research agenda that is interdisciplinary, multiscale and globally inclusive is needed to inform pathways toward greater equality.

In short, too many countries are investing too little in researching the long-term impact of inequality on the sustainability of their economies, societies and communities. Unless we address this urgently, inequalities will make the cross-cutting ambition of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to ‘leave no one behind’ by 2030 an empty slogan.

The World Social Science Report 2016 was prepared by the International Social Science Council (ISSC) and the Institute of Development Studies (IDS), and is co-published with UNESCO.

On October 1, 2016, the Chinese renminbi (RMB) joined the dollar and the euro as one of five official international reserve assets. This is not just a technical development. It has the potential to reshape trade and finance across Latin America, according to a new report by the Atlantic Council's Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center. By being able to conduct deals directly in China's currency, the region now enters a new and uncertain financial era ripe with investment opportunities—but also with elevated risks.