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Economy

The Future of EU ATM Markets

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, October 5, 2018
Abstract in English: 
ATMs constitute a critical component in today’s infrastructure for facilitating cash payments. However, ongoing digitalisation (cashless payments, e-commerce and online banking) is challenging the role of ATMs and putting pressure on the cash infrastructure in the EU. The shift from cash to cashless payments reduces the need for cash withdrawals and the rise of online banking challenges the bank branch as the traditionally most prevalent location for ATMs. Moreover, the introduction of pricing policies might also change the dynamics in EU ATM markets. Transparency and price caps on the so-called dynamic currency conversion (DCC) as well as potential reductions in interchange fees will put pressure on the revenues of certain ATMs.
Against this background, this report assesses the sensitivity of EU ATM markets to ongoing digitalisation and pricing policies. The impact of these developments is assessed across business models in Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Sweden, which are representative of the ATM markets in all EU member states.
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135
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Can Blockchain revolutionize international trade?

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, January 12, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Trade has always been shaped by technological innovation. In recent times, a new technology – Blockchain – has been greeted by many as the next big game-changer. This publication explores the question of whether Blockchain may revolutionize international trade.
Opening with an explanation of the technology, the publication goes on to analyse the relevance of this technology for international trade by reviewing how it is currently used and how it may potentially be used in the various areas covered by WTO rules. In doing so, it offers insights into the extent to which this technology could affect cross-border trade in goods and services and in intellectual property rights.
The publication also discusses the potential of Blockchain for reducing trade costs and enhancing supply chain transparency, as well as the opportunities it provides for small-scale producers and companies. It concludes with a review of various challenges that must be addressed before the technology can be used on a wide scale and have a significant impact on international trade.
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163
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The Future of Latin America and the Caribbean in the Context of the Rise of China

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
Abstract in English: 
There are numerous analyses about China and its future, as well as about Chinese engagement with Latin America. This report examines, in detail, how the growth of China, with its power and role in the global economy, is likely to transform Latin America and the Caribbean through economic, political, and other forms of engagement with the region. The report considers multiple scenarios regarding the future of China, the resolution of its security challenges, and possible departures from its current trajectory. It focuses primarily on the question of what Latin America and the Caribbean will look like if China succeeds in its ongoing economic and political engagement in the region.
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42
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The Future of Development Finance

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, November 5, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Growing anxiety about China’s dominance of emerging markets spurred a rare bipartisan effort to pass the Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development (BUILD) Act of 2018. The BUILD Act delivers a needed overhaul of US development finance capabilities and commercial diplomacy by subsuming the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) and other development finance agencies into a single, streamlined entity: The United States International Development Finance Corporation (USDFC). The USDFC will provide policymakers with new tools for supporting US commercial diplomacy and promoting US corporate success in fast-growing foreign markets, including equity and grant making capabilities.
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15
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Global Trends to 2035 - Economy and Society

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This study maps and analyses current and future global trends in the fields of economics and society, covering the period to 2035. Drawing on and complementing existing literature, it summarises and analyses the findings of relevant foresight studies in relation to such global trends. It traces recent changes in the perceived trajectory of already-identified trends and identifies significant new or emerging trends. It also addresses potential policy implications of such trends for the EU.
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160
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Global Trends to 2030: Shaping the future in a fast-changing world

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, November 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Global power shifts, pressure on liberal democracies, challenges to global governance, the transformation of economic models and of the very fabric of societies, new uses and misuses of technology, humanity’s growing ecological footprint: the world may be on the cusp of a new geopolitical, geo-economic and geotechnological order. Against this backdrop, how can the European Union ensure that it holds its destiny in its own hands? What must it do to better prepare and shape the future, tackling emerging challenges and seizing the opportunities that will arise?
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72
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Insurance 2025 - Reducing risk in an uncertain future

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, March 15, 2017
Abstract in English: 
This report is based on a series of insurance and CxO studies conducted by the IBM Institute for Business Value over the past few years, in combination with a number of informal conversations and discussions with subject matter experts and insurance executives. We look at two key technology waves — cognitive computing and systems decentralization — that will have significant impact on the future of business across industries and that will affect insurance companies and their customers. However, considerable uncertainty surrounds their adoption pattern, and so we will consider scenario planning regarding the various potential outcomes of these two waves:
1.How will cognitive technologies be deployed — as utilities or as proprietary tools?
2.Will operations and decision-making happen on “the edge” in distributed models, or centrally in common processes?
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24
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EIB Working Papers 2018/07 - Young SMEs: Driving Innovation in Europe?

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, September 21, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Using large scale EIB Investment Survey evidence for 2016 covering 8,900 non-financial firms from all size and age classes across all sectors and all EU Member States, we identify different innovation profiles based on a firm’s R&D investment and/or innovation activities. We find that “basic” firms – i.e. firms that do not engage in any type of R&D or innovation – are more common among young SMEs, while innovators –i.e. firms that do R&D and introduce new products, processes or services- are more often old and large firms. This hold particularly for “leading innovators”, ie those introducing innovations new to the market. To further explore why young SMEs are not more active in innovation, we explore their access to finance. We confirm that young small leading innovators are the most likely to be credit constrained. Grants seem to at least partly addressing the external financing access problem for leading innovators, but not for young SMEs.
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26
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Confronting the Global Forced Migration Crisis

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, May 29, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The size and scope of the global forced migration crisis are unprecedented. Almost 66 million people worldwide have been forced from home by conflict. If recent trends continue, this figure could increase to between 180 and 320 million people by 2030. This global crisis already poses serious challenges to economic growth and risks to stability and national security, as well as an enormous human toll affecting tens of millions of people. These issues are on track to get worse; without significant course correction soon, the forced migration issues confronted today will seem simple decades from now. Yet, efforts to confront the crisis continue to be reactive in addressing these and other core issues. The United States should broaden the scope of its efforts beyond the tactical and reactive to see the world through a more strategic lens colored by the challenges posed—and opportunities created—by the forced migration crisis at home and abroad. CSIS convened a diverse task force in 2017 to study the global forced migration crisis. This report is a result of those findings.
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Number of pages: 
67
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Rebuilding Strategic Thinking

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, October 18, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Churchill is said to have commented after a particularly undistinguished meal: “The pudding [that’s dessert for us Americans] lacked a theme.” This is also true of the world before us today. If that world is less existentially dangerous than the height of the Cold War, it is scary in its shapelessness. Threats seem to emanate from everywhere, unpredictably, even at a luncheon in San Bernardino or a nightclub in Orlando. It is a world that cries out for old-fashioned strategic analysis as an input to strategy: What is important, what is less so? How do issues connect or relate to each other, and where are the trends taking us? Where and how should we intervene, and where should we disengage? What are the important investments to make? What should we be aiming for a decade hence?
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41
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