RSS:

Newsletter subscribe:

Economy

Rebalancing the Euro Area: A proposal for Future Reform

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, December 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Under a monetary union, fiscal and monetary discipline have to go hand in hand if macroeconomic stability is to be maintained. The question is how to set up the right institutions to achieve this stability in a credible manner. This policy brief proposes a new institutional arrangement for the euro area to restore fiscal discipline. It places the responsibility for compliance entirely on the shoulders of the member states. It also provides for the mutualisation of 30% of the member states’ debt-to-GDP ratio.
This would help to maintain a stable currency and to limit the risk of contagion should another crisis occur in the future. However, this comes at a cost. Under the fiscal scheme proposed, member states, which would be fully fiscally sovereign, would need to run long-term sound fiscal policies to benefit from euro membership.
In addition, this brief proposes a reform of Target2 under which overspending economies would have to pay the financial cost of accessing extra euros, which would deter the accumulation of internal imbalances within the euro area. All this is expected to change the current fragility of the architecture of the euro, provide member states with the right incentives to abide by sounder economic principles and make them fully responsible for the policies they adopt.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
20
Share: 

Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2019 - TOWARDS SMART URBAN TRANSPORTATION

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, December 20, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a bi-annual publication on regional economic growth, development and regional integration in Emerging Asia. It focuses on the economic conditions of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. It also addresses relevant economic issues in China and India to fully reflect economic developments in the region.
The Outlook comprises four main parts, each highlighting a particular dimension of recent economic developments in the region. The first part presents the regional economic monitor, depicting the economic outlook and macroeconomic challenges in the region. The second part consists of a special thematic chapter addressing a major issue facing the region. The 2019 edition of the Outlook looks at smart cities, with a special focus on transportation. Addressing traffic congestion, in particular, is critical in realising the potential benefits of urbanisation for growth. The third part of the report includes structural country notes offering specific recommendations for each country, and the fourth part discusses the recent progress made in key aspects of regional integration.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
279
Share: 

Global Economic Prospects - Darkening Skies

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Abstract in English: 
Global growth is expected to slow to 2.9 percent in 2019. International trade and investment are moderating, trade tensions remain elevated, and financing conditions are tightening. Amid recent episodes of financial stress, growth in emerging market and developing economies has lost momentum and is projected to stall at 4.2 percent this year, with a weaker-than-expected rebound in commodity exporters accompanied by deceleration in commodity importers. Downside risks have become more acute. Financial market pressures and trade tensions could escalate, denting global activity.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
264
Share: 

Future of Consumption in Fast-Growth Consumer Markets: India

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, January 7, 2019
Abstract in English: 
This report sheds light on one of the fastest growing economies in the world - India. By 2030, India will see a tremendous jump in consumer spending driven by increased incomes, a billion diverse internet users and a very young population. The new Indian consumer will be more affluent, and more willing to spend but will have more evolved preferences and aspirations than consumers of the past. The ‘Urban vs. Rural’ paradigm of the past may not hold as firm in future. Moreover, specific key societal challenges will have to be overcome to ensure a positive future of consumption for all. The report builds on in-depth consumer surveys conducted across 5,100 households in 30 cities and town in India and draws from over 40 in-depth interviews with private and public-sector leaders. It lays out seven critical predictions on a vision for consumption in India in 2030 and lays out a call-to-action for multi-stakeholder collaborations to build an inclusive future for India.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
36
Share: 

The Global Risks Report 2019

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Abstract in English: 
Is the world sleepwalking into a crisis? Global risks are intensifying but the collective will to tackle them appears to be lacking. Instead, divisions are hardening. The world’s move into a new phase of strongly state-centred politics, noted in last year’s Global Risks Report, continued throughout 2018. The idea of “taking back control”— whether domestically from political rivals or externally from multilateral or supranational organizations— resonates across many countries and many issues. The energy now expended on consolidating or recovering national control risks weakening collective responses to emerging global challenges. We are drifting deeper into global problems from which we will struggle to extricate ourselves.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
114
Share: 

MNC Trend Report 2018 - The Future of Work

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, December 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The 8th MNC Trend Report provides an overview of the company information contained in the SA MNC Database. The database includes company finances, operations, remuneration and geographical spread of 91 South African MNCs that operate across Africa. The MNC Database has been populated with this information since 2008, which provides a unique dataset from which to analyse financial trends. This report is focused on two main areas of study. Firstly, the financial trends of the 91 sampled companies are analysed within 14 economic sectors, including revenue growth as well as revenue compared to competitors. In addition to this, each company’s profit before tax (PBT) is analysed compared to its sector and competitors. Within this context, the remuneration strategies of the top level of directors is analysed. Finally, we take a quick look at the total remuneration packages of directors compared to the lowest employees in the company.
The last section of this report, titled ‘the Future of Work’, takes a closer look at the developments around the automation of jobs. This section aims to put this within the broader context of the developing world, as opposed to the developed world. It is questioned whether the reality in the developed world is a reality in Africa, and also makes some suggestions as to how unions and workers can use technology to further their own agendas.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
94
Share: 

The Future of Mobility and Migration Within and From Sub- Saharan Africa

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, December 17, 2018
Abstract in English: 
African migration – its drivers, dynamics, and consequences –increasingly features in global policy debates. Concerns vary widely, including everything from economic and human development, human rights, and human and state security. For OECD countries, particularly members of the European Union, there
are additional concerns. These include securing labour required to support an aging European population and expensive social welfare system; upholding commitments to human dignity; maintaining a positive reputation and influence throughout the ‘global south’; and politically derived imperative to starkly limit
spontaneous movements of Africans across Europe’s external boundaries. As illustration, despite a growing need for labour, the number of newly issued long-term work permits (12+ months) for African labour migrants has been reduced from 80.000 in 2008 to 20.000 in 2016.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Executive summary: 

Number of pages: 
25
Share: 

The Future of EU ATM Markets

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, October 5, 2018
Abstract in English: 
ATMs constitute a critical component in today’s infrastructure for facilitating cash payments. However, ongoing digitalisation (cashless payments, e-commerce and online banking) is challenging the role of ATMs and putting pressure on the cash infrastructure in the EU. The shift from cash to cashless payments reduces the need for cash withdrawals and the rise of online banking challenges the bank branch as the traditionally most prevalent location for ATMs. Moreover, the introduction of pricing policies might also change the dynamics in EU ATM markets. Transparency and price caps on the so-called dynamic currency conversion (DCC) as well as potential reductions in interchange fees will put pressure on the revenues of certain ATMs.
Against this background, this report assesses the sensitivity of EU ATM markets to ongoing digitalisation and pricing policies. The impact of these developments is assessed across business models in Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Sweden, which are representative of the ATM markets in all EU member states.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
135
Share: 

Can Blockchain revolutionize international trade?

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, January 12, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Trade has always been shaped by technological innovation. In recent times, a new technology – Blockchain – has been greeted by many as the next big game-changer. This publication explores the question of whether Blockchain may revolutionize international trade.
Opening with an explanation of the technology, the publication goes on to analyse the relevance of this technology for international trade by reviewing how it is currently used and how it may potentially be used in the various areas covered by WTO rules. In doing so, it offers insights into the extent to which this technology could affect cross-border trade in goods and services and in intellectual property rights.
The publication also discusses the potential of Blockchain for reducing trade costs and enhancing supply chain transparency, as well as the opportunities it provides for small-scale producers and companies. It concludes with a review of various challenges that must be addressed before the technology can be used on a wide scale and have a significant impact on international trade.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
163
Share: 

The Future of Latin America and the Caribbean in the Context of the Rise of China

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
Abstract in English: 
There are numerous analyses about China and its future, as well as about Chinese engagement with Latin America. This report examines, in detail, how the growth of China, with its power and role in the global economy, is likely to transform Latin America and the Caribbean through economic, political, and other forms of engagement with the region. The report considers multiple scenarios regarding the future of China, the resolution of its security challenges, and possible departures from its current trajectory. It focuses primarily on the question of what Latin America and the Caribbean will look like if China succeeds in its ongoing economic and political engagement in the region.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
42
Share: 

Pages

Subscribe to RSS - Economy