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Economy

After the Fall: The Future of Global Cooperation

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Sunday, July 1, 2012
Abstract in English: 
International cooperation has been a recurrent theme in each of the thirteen Geneva Reports on the World Economy published by CEPR and ICMB since 1999. The 2004 report, International Economic and Financial Cooperation: New Issues, New Actors, New Responses, analysed this issue in some depth. This report, the fourteenth in the series, picks up this issue once again, but this time the approach is different, the recommendations more cautious and incremental, and the prognosis bleaker. This is not surprising: the authors demonstrate very clearly why international cooperation is difficult at the best of times, and very difficult indeed in the midst of a severe financial crisis.
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Megachange: The World in 2050

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Thursday, March 1, 2012
Abstract in English: 
"Megatrends" are great forces in societal development that have profound impacts on states, markets, and civil society in the now and for the years to come. They can effectively be employed as a starting point for analyzing our world. Megachange: The World in 2050 looks at these sweeping, fundamental trends that are changing the world faster than at any time in human history. Including chapters on approximately twenty of these "megatrends," each elegantly outlined by contributors from The Economist, and rich in supporting facts and graphics, the book is a compelling read as well as a valuable research and reference tool. Groups the "megatrends" that are shaping our world into several categories: People, Life and Death, Economy and Business, and Knowledge. Each trend is covered in a concise but detailed chapter written by an expert from The Economist. Packed with important information about the forces that shape our world, Megachange is a fascinating new look to the future from the experts at The Economist.
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Global Trends 2030: Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World

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Publication date: 
Saturday, October 1, 2011
Abstract in English: 
This report, edited by Álvaro de Vasconcelos, contains the findings of the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) research project. The EUISS was commissioned to produce the ESPAS Report on Global Trends 2030 by an EU inter-institutional task force. An interim version of this report was presented to the European Union in October 2011. The report identifies several global trends that will shape the world in 2030. They include: The empowerment of the individual, which may contribute to a growing sense of belonging to a single human community; Greater stress on sustainable development against a backdrop of greater resource scarcity and persistent poverty, compounded by the consequences of climate change; The emergence of a more polycentric world characterised by a shift of power away from states, and growing governance gaps as the mechanisms for inter-state relations fail to respond adequately to global public demands.
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Looking to 2060: Long-term Growth Prospects for the World

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Friday, November 9, 2012
Abstract in English: 
This report presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances.
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Capital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World

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Tuesday, January 1, 2013
Abstract in English: 
Capital for the Future, the second edition of the series "Global Development Horizons", explores saving, investment, and capital flows through 2030. It finds that developing economies are fast becoming major investors in the world economy, and by 2030 will account for more than 60 cents of every dollar invested. This represents a fundamental shift with respect to historical performance: for 4 decades (through the 1990s), developing countries had been accounting for just about 20 cents for every dollar of global saving and investment. Before 2020, total investment in the developing world is expected to overtake that in high income countries. Developing countries will—for the first time in history—become major sources, destinations, and potentially also intermediaries of global gross capital flows.
Future trends in investment, saving, and capital flows will affect economic conditions from the household level to the global macroeconomic level, with implications not only for national governments but also for international institutions and policy coordination. Without timely efforts, some countries will be left behind. And, more importantly, even within otherwise successful countries, some people will be left behind. Policy makers preparing for this change will thus benefit from a better understanding of the unfolding dynamics of global capital and wealth in the future.
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World in 2050. The BRICs and Beyond: Prospects, Challenges and Opportunities

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Publication date: 
Tuesday, January 1, 2013
Abstract in English: 
The world economy is projected to grow at an average rate of just over 3% per annum from 2011 to 2050, doubling in size by 2032 and nearly doubling again by 2050. China is projected to overtake the US as the largest economy by 2017 in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and by 2027 in market exchange rate terms. India should become the third ‘global economic giant’ by 2050, a long way ahead of Brazil, which we expect to move up to 4th place ahead of Japan. Russia could overtake Germany to become the largest European economy before 2020 in PPP terms and by around 2035 at market exchange rates. Emerging economies such as Mexico and Indonesia could be larger than the UK and France by 2050, and Turkey larger than Italy. Outside the G20, Vietnam, Malaysia and Nigeria all have strong long-term growth potential, while Poland should comfortably outpace the large Western European economies for the next couple of decades. This report updates our long-term global economic growth projections, which were last published in January 2011. These are based on a PwC model that takes account of projected trends in demographics, capital investment, education levels and technological progress.
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The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe

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Publication date: 
Friday, November 1, 2013
Abstract in English: 
The main body of this report consists of four parts.
Part I sets out the main global trends and concentrates on a number of areas where our analysis deviates from received wisdom, namely population growth, globalisation and resource scarcity. This part is relatively technical and is meant to provide the analytical background to the remainder of the report. For the convenience of the busy reader, the other parts have been organised in such a way that they can be read independently.
Part II provides a snapshot of the global economy in 2030, documenting the likely evolution of the main trends combined with the outcome of a multi-country modelling exercise in terms of income and growth, but also in terms of affluence and poverty. This part also stresses some of the less conventional aspects that result from our analysis. The detailed description of the central scenario and an alternative scenario is available in Annex A.
Part III describes the trajectory of Europe’s transition from today’s depressed economy to 2030. The part also contains a summary of the main findings generated by an econometric modelling exercise focused on Europe. Greater details are presented in a separate Working Document presented in Annex D.
Finally, Part IV discusses the policy challenges that arise for Europe from this view of the world in 2030 and the possible emergence of game changers.
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The Future of Trade: The Challenges of Convergence

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Abstract in English: 
In April 2012, the Director-General of the WTO, Pascal Lamy, invited a diverse group of prominent non-state stakeholders to analyse challenges to global trade opening in the 21st century. The Panel held a series of closed meetings and also consulted extensively with interested parties. Chapter 1 of the Panel’s report discusses the contribution that trade opening has made to growth, development and prosperity. It also discusses the challenges of managing jobless growth, high unemployment, poverty, inequality, the environment and sustainable development, and the role of trade as well as investment in this context. Chapter 2 examines certain transformational factors that have shaped trade in recent years and will continue to do so in the future. These include increasing globalization, geographical shifts in patterns of growth, trade and investment, technological advances, the rise of international value chains, the proliferation of preferential trade agreements, and the growing influence of non-tariff measures. Chapter 3 contains a number of recommendations for possible action. They are not prioritized in terms of their degree of importance by the Panel. They are organized around an exploration of the principles and processes driving trade relations, along with a series of specific issues that have either been raised in other contexts, including the Doha Round, or which the Panel believes warrant consideration. The Panel does not offer specific recommendations to deal with the Doha Round, other than noting that the issues in the Doha agenda will not disappear and that not fulfilling this collective undertaking could put at stake the multilateral trading system itself.
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Now for the Long Term: The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

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Tuesday, October 1, 2013
Abstract in English: 
As the world slowly emerges from the devastating Financial Crisis, it is time to reflect on the lessons of this turbulent period and think afresh about how to prevent future crises. The Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations focuses on the increasing short-termism of modern politics and our collective inability to break the gridlock which undermines attempts to address the biggest challenges that will shape our future. In Now for the Long Term, we urge decision-makers to overcome their pressing daily preoccupations to tackle problems that will determine the lives of today’s and tomorrow’s generations.
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