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Energy

GECO2015. Global Energy and Climate Outlook. Road to Paris. Assessment of Low Emission Levels under World Action Integrating National Contributions

Publication date: 
Sunday, November 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
This report presents the modelling work quoted in the EC communication "The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020” in the EU’s Energy Union package. It examines the effects of a Baseline scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, and of a Global Mitigation scenario in line with keeping global warming below 2°C. The analysis uses the POLES and GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change. In the Baseline, emissions trigger +3.5°C global warming. In the Global Mitigation scenario, all regions realise domestic emission cuts to stay below 2°C, with various profiles in 2020-2050 depending on their national characteristics. A significant transformation of the energy systems and non-energy measures enable regions at all levels of income to move to a low-emission growth pathway. Sectors linked (directly or indirectly) to carbon-intensive processes adjust their investments to be competitive in a low-emission environment. A significant number of regions draw economic benefits from shifting their expenditures on fossil energy imports to investments. GDP growth rates are marginally affected in most regions by global efforts to reduce emissions. Crucially, high growth rates are maintained in fast-growing low-income regions. Economic costs are reduced further when countries use emission permit auction revenues for other tax reductions. Delaying actions to stay below 2°C add large economic costs.
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GECO 2016 Global Energy and Climate Outlook Road from Paris

Publication date: 
Monday, March 1, 2021
Abstract in English: 
Abstract
This report examines the effects on greenhouse gases emissions and international energy markets of a Reference scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, of two scenarios where the UNFCCC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions have been included, and of a scenario in line with keeping global warming below a temperature increase of 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The report presents an updated version of the modelling work that supported DG CLIMA in the UNFCCC negotiations that resulted in the Paris Agreement of the COP21 in December 2015. In the Reference scenario, emissions trigger global warming above 3°C. In the INDC scenarios, regions adopt domestic policies that result in global changes in emissions and energy use, and would result, if pursued beyond 2030, in the long term in a global warming around 3°C; the INDCs cover 28-44% of the cumulated emissions reductions necessary to remain below a 2°C warming. In the 2°C scenario, all regions realise domestic emission cuts to stay below 2°C, with various profiles in 2020-2050 depending on their national characteristics. Reduction of non-CO2 emissions (34%), energy efficiency (20%) and the deployment of renewable energies (20%) are the main options contributing in the mitigation effort by 2030. A significant number of regions draw economic benefits from shifting their expenditures on fossil energy imports to investments in low-carbon and energy-efficient options. Global efforts to reduce emissions appears compatible with robust GDP growth is in most regions – in particular, high growth rates are maintained in fast-growing low-income regions. The analysis uses the JRC-POLES and JRC-GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change.
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Accelerating Climate Action: Refocusing Policies through a Well-being Lens

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, January 9, 2021
Abstract in English: 
This report builds on the OECD Well-being Framework and applies a new perspective that analyses synergies and trade-offs between climate change mitigation and broader goals such as health, education, jobs, as well as wider environmental quality and the resources needed to sustain our livelihoods through time. This report takes an explicitly political economy approach to the low-emissions transitions needed across five economic sectors (electricity, heavy industry, residential, surface transport, and agriculture) that are responsible for more than 60% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Synergies between emissions reduction and broader well-being objectives, such as reduced air pollution and improved health, increase the incentives for early mitigation action. At the same time, the impact of climate policies on issues such as the affordability of energy and jobs need to be taken into account to counter growing economic and social inequalities within and between countries. The report argues that reframing climate policies using a well-being lens is necessary for making visible such synergies and trade-offs; allowing decision-makers to increase the former and anticipate, manage and minimise the latter. This requires us to rethink societal goals in terms of well-being, reframe our measures of progress and refocus policy-making accordingly.
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Towards a more resilient Europe post-coronavirus: Capabilities and gaps in the EU's capacity to address structural risks

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, October 1, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The current coronavirus crisis emphasises the need for the European Union to devote more effort to anticipatory governance, notably through analysis of medium- and long-term global trends, as well as structured contingency planning and the stress-testing of existing and future policies. In order to contribute to reflection on and discussion about the implications of the coronavirus pandemic for EU policy-making, this paper builds on an initial 'mapping' of some 66 potential structural risks which could confront Europe over the coming decade. Taking 33 risks which are assessed as being more significant or likely, it looks first at the capabilities which the EU and its Member States already have to address those risks, and then looks at the various gaps in policy and instruments at the Union's disposal, suggesting possible approaches to overcome them in the short and medium terms.
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Number of pages: 
114
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A new energy strategy for the Western Hemisphere

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, March 6, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The Western Hemisphere has a unique advantage in global energy markets. It is rich in natural resources, from conventional fuels such as oil and natural gas, to critical minerals such as lithium for batteries. The region is also poised to become a leader in newer and emerging energy resources. It has, for example, abundant potential for solar and wind energy and other advanced energy technologies, such as nuclear energy. It enjoys high and rapidly growing levels of renewable energy, especially in power generation, largely based on significant levels of legacy, utility-scale hydropower.1
Many of the Americas’ subregions share cross-border electric power or liquid fuel interconnections. The vast majority of its nations share common values, including a commitment to democracy, the rule of law, and shared prosperity. The countries of the Americas are bound together through market-based trade, mutual investment, and deep cultural and security ties. Moreover, the hemisphere is indispensable to US energy security. The United States derives the majority of its imports of oil, gas, and electricity from its neighbors and there is considerable potential for trade in increasingly high-value minerals.
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Number of pages: 
24
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Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2019

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, March 25, 2019
Abstract in English: 
Fostering Effective Energy Transition report is part of the World Economic Forum’s System Initiative on Shaping the Future of Energy. The report summarizes insights from the “Energy Transition Index”, which builds upon the previous series of “Global Energy Architecture Performance Index” by adding a forward looking element of country readiness for energy transition. The index benchmarks 115 countries on the current level of their energy system performance, and the readiness of their macro environment for transition to a secure, sustainable, affordable and inclusive future energy system. The fact-based framework and rankings are intended to enable policy makers and businesses to identify the destination for energy transition, identify imperatives, and align policy and market enablers accordingly.
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Operationalizing Nuclear Disarmament Verification

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, April 29, 2019
Abstract in English: 
This SIPRI Insights seeks to contribute to the operationalization of nuclear disarmament verification. It explores existing solutions to define a baseline for new arms control and disarmament verification regimes, and considers the requirements for verification under the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Existing solutions might be sufficient to enable several near-term disarmament steps and to lay the foundations for a comprehensive nuclear disarmament verification regime supporting the TPNW. However, more technical work is needed to achieve all the preconditions for a nuclear weapon-free world, particularly on verifying the dismantlement of nuclear weapons. At the same time, a more favourable political context could reduce the extent to which technical challenges are perceived as obstacles to nuclear disarmament. Even in the absence of new disarmament treaties, the operationalization of disarmament verification can begin at a conceptual and discursive level, by adopting a more policy-oriented approach to disarmament verification.
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The Future of Rail - Opportunities for energy and the environment

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, February 8, 2019
Abstract in English: 
Global demand for transport is growing fast. On present trends, passenger and freight activity will more than double by 2050.Such growth is a token of social and economic progress. But it carries with it growth in energy demand and in emissions of CO2 and atmospheric pollutants.Greater reliance on rail can cut that growth. The world is becoming ever more urbanised and rail travel is well matched to urban needs.High-speed rail can serve as an alternative to short-distance air travel. Conventional and freight rail can complement other transport modes to provide efficient mobility.This book shows what can be done and how. Its scale is global, with a special focus on the needs and opportunities in India.
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Number of pages: 
175
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Utilization of Scenarios in European Electricity Policy: The Ten-Year Network Development Plan

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, December 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The transformation of the European Union’s energy sector poses a number of challenges to the European electricity system. Above all, both the anticipated increase of intermittent electricity from renewable sources and the completion of the internal energy market while guaranteeing a secure supply require an extensive development of electricity infrastructure at the European level. Nevertheless, Europe’s future electricity system entails numerous uncertainties. For example, the definite amount and the location of both electricity generation and consumption are unpredictable. In order to address these ambiguities, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) develops the two-yearly Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP). By exploring different plausible future paths using scenarios, the TYNDP aims to identify key infrastructure projects – namely transmission lines and cross-border interconnectors – for the future electricity system. In this capacity, the TYNDP is the central planning tool for European grid infrastructure. This paper explores whether the TYNDP effectively provides a solid planning foundation for future grid investments. For this end, the TYNDPs 2012-2018 are investigated in the light of European energy policies, and their utilization by stakeholders is scrutinized. The paper argues that an existing policy congruence and the strong link to the Projects of Common Interest (PCI) confine the TYNDP solely to the hardware of the electricity system. This in turn profoundly limits the TYNDP’s effectiveness as a strategic planning tool. Hence, a closer connection to the software components of the anticipated European electricity system – namely the future market design and (European) regulations – would further allow for a holistic planning and evaluation of future electricity infrastructure projects.
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Number of pages: 
37
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The Outlook for Natural Gas and LNG in China in the War against Air Pollution

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, December 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The outlook for gas demand in China is one of the most important questions facing the global gas market, as it will have significant consequences for gas producers and consumers across the world. The rapid rise in China’s gas demand has been catalysed by environmental concerns, in particular air quality, in the country’s major cities and the authors of this report, Akira Miyamoto and Chikako Ishiguro, provide a detailed analysis of the progress that has been made in introducing environmental legislation to pursue the goal of cleaning up China’s skies. They consider the impact that this has had on gas consumption in China over the past decade before analysing the major goals of the Blue Sky Action Plan and outlining its potential consequences for gas demand over the next two to three years.
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Number of pages: 
61
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