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Foreign affairs

State of the Union Address 2023

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, September 13, 2023
Abstract in English: 
In her State of the Union address on 13 September 2023, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen outlined the main priorities and flagship initiatives for the year to come, building on the European Union's successes and achievements of the past years.
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31
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Transatlantic Defense during Wartime

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, September 5, 2023
Abstract in English: 
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 set off a chain of events that has reverberated far beyond the borders of the conflict. Across Europe, a historic effort to rethink defense posture is underway as European states grapple with the implications of the conflict for their own security. Following the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) Vilnius summit this past July, the transatlantic alliance requires long-term defense industrial investments to sustain the collective defense of all member-states.
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75
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Security and Defence Days – Conference Proceedings

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, July 28, 2023
Abstract in English: 
This joint publication is the result of a 2-day conference on Security and Defence in the EU that took place as a common project of Martens Centre and De Gasperi Foundation in June 2022. Four panel discussions took place on “The new strategic concept and the war in Ukraine: charting NATO’s route in a changing geopolitical scenario”; “NATO’s future in uncertain times: a new political direction suited for a new era”; “The new security landscape in Europe, NATO’s Madrid Summit and the European Union”; “Time to invest in Security and Defence: political and technological opportunities in a competitive world”. The conference proceedings are an overview of the main discussion points of the panellists who attended the event.
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72
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The asylum in-tray in 2025

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, August 21, 2023
Abstract in English: 
With a general election expected in the next 12-18 months, the UK’s asylum system is in crisis.
The backlog is at over 130,000 cases, the system is costing around £3.6 billion a year in asylum support costs, and the Home Office is gripped by institutional challenges. At the same time, the number of people arriving in small boats has escalated rapidly from the hundreds to the tens of thousands in the past five years.
The prime minister has pledged to ‘stop the boats’ as one of his five priorities for government. Central to the government’s plan is its flagship Illegal Migration Act – which will place a duty on the home secretary to remove irregular arrivals and not consider their asylum claims – as well as the agreement to relocate asylum seekers to Rwanda.
This briefing sets out the in-tray for the UK government in 2025 – after the next general election – across the main parts of the asylum system.
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36
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EUISS Yearbook of European Security 2023

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, August 2, 2023
Abstract in English: 
The 2023 Yearbook of European Security provides an overview of events in 2022 that were significant for European security – in particular, inevitably, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The first section of the volume explores the EU’s response to the war in Ukraine and the far-reaching repercussions of this unprecedented event for Europe’s security and defence architecture.
The second section assesses the implementation of the Strategic Compass, the guiding framework for the Union’s security and defence up to 2030, and the EU’s evolution as a defence actor. The third section focuses on multilateralism, and contains geographical and regional thematic chapters on North Africa and the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas.
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136
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REPORT 1+1=3 - Visionary report on Estonia-Finland future cooperation

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Sunday, July 3, 2022
Abstract in English: 
This independent report on the future cooperation between Finland and Estonia was drafted by the rapporteurs, ex-ministers Anne-Mari Virolainen and Jaak Aaviksoo, supported by the Finnish Institute of International Affairs and the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute. It was commissioned by the Finnish and Estonian governments. The report analyses the current state of the bilateral relations and gives recommendations on how to develop the Finnish-Estonian cooperation in the future.
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46
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Sanctioning China in a Taiwan crisis: Scenarios and risks

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, June 21, 2023
Abstract in English: 
In recent months, growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait as well as the rapid and coordinated Group of Seven (G7) economic response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have raised questions—in G7 capitals and in Beijing alike—over whether similar measures could be imposed on China in a Taiwan crisis. This report examines the range of plausible economic countermeasures on the table for G7 leaders in the event of a major escalation in the Taiwan Strait short of war. The study explores potential economic impacts of such measures on China, the G7, and other countries around the world, as well as coordination challenges in a crisis.
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40
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Forward Look 2023

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, January 9, 2023
Abstract in English: 
Events over the past year – first and foremost the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with its immediate and long-term consequences – have both confirmed and accelerated the long-term global trends which were highlighted in last year’s Forward Look. These trends included global fragmentation, the polarisation of society, evolving economic models, and pressing environmental challenges. Their development during 2022 suggests that we are witnessing the beginning of a new era of both challenges and opportunities which may call for a far-reaching reassessment of the European model.
Russia’s war against Ukraine is the most visible and far-reaching of these developments, but it is not the only one.
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19
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Transforming European Militaries in Times of War

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, July 3, 2023
Abstract in English: 
Russia’s war against Ukraine exposed the dire state of European defense once and for all. European capability gaps are vast; defense industries have been scaled down; and Europeans hardly cooperate. But the war could unleash new dynamics. Carried by public support for greater defense spending and cooperation, European policymakers have committed themselves to transforming European defense. The EU is trying to seize the moment by launching several initiatives that, if properly supported and funded, could help overcome the pathological fragmentation of Europe’s defense industrial base and establish the Union as a strategic enabler for NATO. But more needs to be done.
The report highlights that Europeans need to up and keep their spending pledges both to close some of the key legacy and new capability gaps and assuage criticism that they do not pull their weight in the transatlantic relationship. But not all capability gaps can be closed. Europeans therefore need to prioritize and plan better together, both within and between the EU and NATO, including by learning the lessons from the battlefields in Ukraine. Setting joint priorities should lay the foundation for deeper cooperation on joint arms projects. However, Europeans hardly cooperate on development and procurement, which causes costly duplications, weakens Europe’s defense industrial base, and undermines the interoperability between armed forces. Europe’s responses to the war risk even exacerbating this fragmentation. Aimed at mitigating fragmentation, the EU initiatives need to be better funded and supported by the member states.
The report concludes with five policy recommendations on how Europeans can come off the fence on European defense.
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94
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How to end Russia’s war on Ukraine

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, June 27, 2023
Abstract in English: 
As Ukraine continues to fight to liberate its occupied territories and eject Russian invaders, its Western backers debate the likely endgame for the war and its aftermath.

The international response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, while impressive in many ways, remains inadequate to the task and dangerously wobbly. Russia’s wider threat to the rules-based international order is also insufficiently acknowledged.

Many proposals have been put forward for how the conflict could, or should, be brought to a close. Some, though well-intentioned, involve concessions that would effectively appease Russia, betray Ukraine and endanger Europe.

Persistent calls for a ceasefire or ‘negotiated settlement’ to end the fighting without tackling its underlying cause – Russia’s ambition to eliminate Ukraine as we know it – will do no more than reward the aggressor while punishing the victim.

This multi-author report takes nine commonly espoused ideas for quick fixes or objections to bolstering assistance to Ukraine, and weighs them against both current reality and their long-term consequences.

The unanimous conclusion of the authors is that the only outcome to the war that can safeguard the future security of Europe is a convincing Ukrainian victory – hence, Western military support to Kyiv should be redoubled before it is too late.
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58
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