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Foreign affairs

Smart Partnerships amid Great Power Competition: AI, China, and the Global Quest for Digital Sovereignty

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Publication date: 
Tuesday, January 12, 2021
Abstract in English: 
The report captures key takeaways from various roundtable conversations, identifies the challenges and opportunities that different regions of the world face when dealing with emerging technologies, and evaluates China’s role as a global citizen. In times of economic decoupling and rising geopolitical bipolarity, it highlights opportunities for smart partnerships, describes how data and AI applications can be harnessed for good, and develops scenarios on where an AI-powered world might be headed.
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20
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Towards a more resilient Europe post-coronavirus: Capabilities and gaps in the EU's capacity to address structural risks

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Publication date: 
Thursday, October 1, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The current coronavirus crisis emphasises the need for the European Union to devote more effort to anticipatory governance, notably through analysis of medium- and long-term global trends, as well as structured contingency planning and the stress-testing of existing and future policies. In order to contribute to reflection on and discussion about the implications of the coronavirus pandemic for EU policy-making, this paper builds on an initial 'mapping' of some 66 potential structural risks which could confront Europe over the coming decade. Taking 33 risks which are assessed as being more significant or likely, it looks first at the capabilities which the EU and its Member States already have to address those risks, and then looks at the various gaps in policy and instruments at the Union's disposal, suggesting possible approaches to overcome them in the short and medium terms.
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114
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Russian futures 2030 - The shape of things to come

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, September 22, 2020
Abstract in English: 
This Chaillot Paper seeks to provide readers with ambitious foresight analysis and insights on how to be prepared for unexpected twists and turns in Russia’s future trajectory.
The opening chapter highlights a set of key megatrends that will shape how Russia evolves in the decade ahead. Subsequent chapters focus on key sectors and analyse critical uncertainties that will influence Russia’s future course of development. They cover state-society relations in the country; its economic development and the evolution of its military posture; as well as how Russia’s relations with the EU’s eastern neighbours and China may unfold by 2030. Each of these chapters presents three alternative future scenarios. While they zoom in on specific themes and sectors, the concluding section offers a panoramic view of the various possible futures – combining elements of all of the preceding chapters to produce three holistic snapshots of Russia in 2030.
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108
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Future of Consumption in Fast-Growth Consumer Markets: ASEAN

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Future of Consumption in Fast-Growth Consumer Markets: ASEAN
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, June 5, 2020
Abstract in English: 
As this report is being published, the world is going through unprecedented times. COVID-19, a term that did not exist when this study was being undertaken over 2019, is now ubiquitous, even though the scale and nature of its global impact will not be known for months to come. As of the second quarter of 2020, a third of the global population has been under a lockdown, with over 200 countries affected by health and economic burdens in diverse ways. Businesses, governments and citizens across the world want to leave the humanitarian and economic crisis behind as soon as possible. To successfully navigate through the COVID crisis and a post-COVID world, a premium will be placed on innovation, the willingness of organizations to disrupt themselves, and active collaboration. In the context of this seismic change, the World Economic Forum Platform for Shaping the Future of Consumption aims to accelerate the responsible transformation of the consumption landscape by enabling consumer well-being, environmental sustainability, inclusive growth models, and trust and transparency among all stakeholders. The mission and transformation goals of the Future of Consumption platform developed three years ago are now more relevant than ever to ensure positive benefits for business and society, across developed and emerging markets. It is an imperative that we advance progress with speed to build a prosperous future for all. In a post-COVID era over the next decade, accelerated shifts in global forces, more than 1 billion first-time consumers and the Fourth Industrial Revolution will continue to change the landscape of consumption in the fast-growth consumer markets of China, India and the ASEAN region. Both business and political leaders will be required to adapt their strategies to the changing needs and demands of connected and empowered consumers. The Future of Consumption in Fast-Growth Consumer Markets, a multi-year project, has focused on the evolution of consumption in emerging markets that comprise more than 40% of the world’s population. Critical foresights on drivers of growth and levers of inclusivity can benefit global leaders as they grapple with similar issues.
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32
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Mobilizing the Private Sector in Peace and Reconciliation

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Mobilizing the Private Sector in Peace and Reconciliation
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, March 27, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The annual cost of conflict is a trillion dollars, according to calculations by the Institute of Economics and Peace 2017. Clearly wars pose various challenges to business operations and profitability, whilst elusive political stability makes investors hesitant. It is therefore not surprising that private sector actors are increasingly intentional in trying to make a contribution to immediate and long-term peace. Private sector activity in support of peace has met with mixed success, which yields lessons about the potential for business to play a role in peace processes. As international organizations and governments test and improve models for collaboration with the private sector, these lessons are useful in deciding what we can do better together. The following report, authored by a team of researchers from the Graduate Institute Geneva tackles this question: Based on previous involvements of the private sector in peacebuilding, which of its activities can contribute positively to peacebuilding and what lessons can be applied to future interventions?
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87
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What if... ? - 14 futures for 2024

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Publication date: 
Friday, January 24, 2020
Abstract in English: 
According to a famous science fiction film, the future is what you make of it. This Chaillot Paper takes this quote from Back to the Future to heart, proposing 14 different portraits of the future for the year 2024.
These are not ‘Grey Swans’ we want to avoid – on the contrary, they are ‘White Reindeers’, positive developments we can make come true. The scenarios do not just depict a desirable future, but include pathways and concrete recommendations on how to get there. The scenarios outlined here therefore amount to more than strategic foresight since they are highly operational; in addition, they describe futures that are just beginning in 2024, but which will have wide-ranging positive repercussions in the decades beyond that date.
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93
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Munich Security Report 2020 - Westlessness

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, February 14, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The Munich Security Report 2020 provides an overview of major security policy challenges and features insightful data and analyses across selected geographic and thematic spotlights. In addition to its role as a trusted companion and conversation starter for the Munich Security Conference, the report series has also become a go-to resource for security professionals and the interested public around the world. The previous report was downloaded tens of thousands of times and received widespread coverage in German and international media.
The Munich Security Report 2020 analyzes current security policy developments in China, Europe, Russia and the United States, and furthermore examines regional dynamics in the Mediterranean, the Middle East and South Asia. In addition, it provides insights into the issues of space and climate security, as well as into the threats arising from new technologies and increasingly transnational right-wing extremism.
The Munich Security Report features a number of exclusive and unpublished materials. For the preparation of the report, the Munich Security Conference Foundation collaborated with renowned partner institutions, including the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), The Brookings Institution, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, International Crisis Group, The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), McKinsey & Company, Pew Research Center, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), and the Zentrum für Osteuropa- und international Studien (ZOiS).
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102
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Global risks 2035 update: Decline or new renaissance?

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Global risks 2035 update: Decline or new renaissance?
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Abstract in English: 
In the best case, we forecast a world headed toward multipolarity with limited multilateralism. At worst, we projected a multipolarity that devolved into another Cold War bipolarity—with China, Russia, and their partners pitted against the United States, Europe, Japan, and other allies. In that scenario, war seemed inevitable. The fracturing of the post-Cold War global system would be accompanied by internal fraying caused by technological advances. No one was spared. Robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), 3D printing, and automation were already upending both skilled and unskilled occupations in the developed world. As the cost of robots came down and automation and 3D printing spread, still-struggling emerging markets could no longer rely on lower labor costs, as China did to fuel its rise. This is a far cry from the earlier notion that globalization and technological change would “lift all boats.” Under any scenario, many of the poorest of the developing countries will face stiffer, potentially existential, challenges linked to climate change, poor governance, higher incidences of civil conflict, and overpopulation. Climate change will impact everyone in the coming decades, but the poorest areas—sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia—will be hit hardest by increasing temperatures and rising sea levels.
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88
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The MENA Region: A Great Power Competition

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The MENA Region: A Great Power Competition
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, October 7, 2019
Abstract in English: 
The MENA Region: A Great Power Competition volume deals with competition among regional and external players for the redistribution of power and international status in the Middle East and North Africa, focusing on Russia’s renewed role and the implications for US interests. Over the last few years, a crisis of legitimacy has beset the liberal international order. In the context of global reassessment, the configuration of regional orders has come into question, illustrated by the current collapse in the Middle East. The idea of a ‘Russian resurgence’ in the Middle East set against a perceived American withdrawal has captured the attention of policymakers and scholars alike, warranting further examination. This volume gathers analysis on the policy choices pursued by Washington and Moscow in the MENA region and develops case studies of the two powers’ policies in the countries beset by major crises. The volume was compiled and edited by Arturo Varvelli, Karim Mezran, and Emily Burchfield and features analysis from Andrey Chuprygin, Abbas Kadhim, Mark N. Katz, Andrey Kortunov, Scott Lasensky, Chiara Lovotti, Vera Michlin-Shapir, Nicola Pedde, Omer Taspinar, Gonul Tol, and William Wechsler.
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Operationalizing Nuclear Disarmament Verification

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, April 29, 2019
Abstract in English: 
This SIPRI Insights seeks to contribute to the operationalization of nuclear disarmament verification. It explores existing solutions to define a baseline for new arms control and disarmament verification regimes, and considers the requirements for verification under the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Existing solutions might be sufficient to enable several near-term disarmament steps and to lay the foundations for a comprehensive nuclear disarmament verification regime supporting the TPNW. However, more technical work is needed to achieve all the preconditions for a nuclear weapon-free world, particularly on verifying the dismantlement of nuclear weapons. At the same time, a more favourable political context could reduce the extent to which technical challenges are perceived as obstacles to nuclear disarmament. Even in the absence of new disarmament treaties, the operationalization of disarmament verification can begin at a conceptual and discursive level, by adopting a more policy-oriented approach to disarmament verification.
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