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Foreign affairs

Opportunity for all: promoting growth and inclusiveness in the Middle-East and North Africa

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The inclusive growth and job creation agenda has moved to the forefront of national dialogues in Middle-East and North African countries in recent years. Yet much work remains as countries move toward implementation of pro-inclusive growth policies that will be critical to the economic success of the region.
This paper seeks to pave the way for further operationalizing the inclusive growth agenda by exploring the key issues the MENA region faces in its efforts to promote inclusive growth. Given that many reforms are already underway in the region and the intention of the paper is to chart a future course for policies to enhance inclusive growth, the paper intentionally emphasizes the key areas where faster and deeper progress is needed. It also underscores the need for policies to be tailored to country-specific circumstances since “one size” cannot fit all, especially in a region as diverse as MENA.
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123
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Re-energising Europe

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, November 15, 2017
Abstract in English: 
As the EU emerges from this decade of crisis, it is clear that an open and frank debate within and between member states – on the issues that concern them most and spark the deepest divisions – is essential.
It enables the development of responses that reflect the interests of all EU countries. It can also help to restore a sense among the elite and the public that belonging to the Union is still good for them and their countries – and is equally beneficial for all member states.
That is what the New Pact for Europe project has been all about: providing a platform for and fostering such debates, and exploring how the major challenges facing Europe are interconnected. It can also help to deliver solutions that will demonstrate that EU membership is still a win-win for everyone– not for the sake of the EU project itself, but for the sake of the citizens whom it exists to serve.
That process has led to the current report, which reflects the differences of perception, experience and current concerns to elaborate the key elements of an ambitious but realistic package deal. This comprehensive bargain - which covers the economic and social, migration, and security fields - could provide a basis to re-energise and galvanise support for the EU.
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120
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UK-EU security cooperation after Brexit

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Abstract in English: 
In an increasingly interconnected world, EU Member States have sought ways to work together against cross-border threats, including organised crime, terrorism and cybercrime, through different agencies and cooperative measures. This report examines the UK’s interaction with those measures after Brexit, and the prospects for future security cooperation between the UK and the EU.
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59
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Deception operations

Abstract Original Language: 
Souvent assimilées à la ruse et aux stratagèmes, les opérations de déception sont une pratique de guerre à la fois ancienne et méconnue, tant au niveau stratégique que tactique ou opératif. Leurs principaux procédés sont la dissimulation, la simulation ou l'intoxication, qi toutes contribuent à tromper l'ennemi et lui faire croire à ne illusion qui doit causer sa perte. Malgré une efficacité maintes fois démontrée dans l'histoire, cette pratique ne va pas sans poser de dilemmes-d'ordre culturel et éthique mais aussi en matière d'allocation des ressources. Alors que progressent sans cesse dans les armées le développement des réseaux, la numérisation et l'intelligence artificielle, les nouvelles technologies semblent toutefois offrir un terrain fertile à un renouveau des opérations de déception. Bien employées, celles-ci permettraient de nuancer la fin du confort opératif prédit aux forces occidentales et d'éviter l'avènement d'un nouveau blocage tactique.
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, June 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Often associated with cunning and stratagems, deception operations are as old as warfare while frequently neglected, whether at the strategic, tactical or operational levels. Its main methods are concealment, simulation and intoxication, all of which help to deceive the enemy and make him believe in an illusion aimed at causing his loss. Despite its proven effectiveness, this practice is not without cultural, ethical as well as resource allocation dilemmas. Modern armed forces are witnessing the constant upgrading of information networks, digitization and the development of artificial intelligence. These new technologies seem to provide a fertile ground for a renewal of deception operations. If well used, the latter would help mitigate the "end of the operational comfort" (i.e. the end of the material, technological and strategic superiority allowing western powers to deploy their forces without encountering major hindrances nor strong resistance from the enemy) predicted to Western forces and prevent a new tactical blockage.
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60
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Europe and the Sahel-Maghreb Crisis

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, March 2, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This report analyses the reasons for European policy-makers coming to perceive the Sahel as a threat to Europe’s own security and stability. It starts by presenting the most recent developments in the Sahel and Maghreb regions in respect of the two most significant threats to European security and stability: trans-national jihadism and cross-border migration. The report provides in-depth analysis of a series of the most important factors that are driving the increases in jihadism and migration, including the persistence of state weakness in the Sahel, the collapse of the state in Libya and the failure of regional collaboration. Furthermore, the report analyses the most significant developments in the international community’s responses to the most recent conflicts and crises in the Sahel and Maghreb, including the foreign policies of France, which remains the single most important foreign actor in the Sahel, the European Union and Denmark. The report closes with a series of suggestions regarding how the European powers, especially Denmark, might adjust their policies in order to increase the likelihood of long-term peace and stability being generated in the region.
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64
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Transatlantic Relations: Converging or Diverging?

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, January 18, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The report makes the case that while the transatlantic relationship may currently be traversing a period of divergence, this need not lead to a structural split over the longer term. Notwithstanding the present choppy waters, the fundamentals in relations between the US and Europe remain strong, and the prospects are mostly positive.
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100
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Munich Security Report 2018: "To the Brink - and Back?"

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, February 16, 2018
Abstract in English: 
For international security, the year 2017 was marked – among others – by signs of a continued erosion of the so-called liberal international order and an increasingly unpredictable US foreign policy. Tensions in many parts of the world have been growing: the rhetoric between the US and North Korea has escalated, the rift in the Gulf has become deeper, not only between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and major arms control treaties are at stake. In the last year, the world got closer – much too close! – to the brink of significant conflict, and we must do whatever we can to move away from the brink.

It is in this context that the Munich Security Conference Foundation publishes its annual Munich Security Report (download the report as a PDF here). Under the heading "To the Brink - and Back?", the Munich Security Report 2018 provides an overview of major security policy issues and features data, analyses, maps and infographics. As a companion and impulse for the 54th edition of the Munich Security Conference, the Munich Security Report serves as background reading for conference participants, but is also made available to the general public. The last report was downloaded close to 35,000 times and received ample press coverage in both German and international media.

This year's main topics include the crises of the liberal international order and the impact of the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency. It also looks at the new momentum in European defense policy and the potential impact of Brexit. In addition, the report analyses regional developments in Central and Eastern Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. It also provides insights into the state of global nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts, the issue of environmental and climate security as well as cyber security.
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88
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Shaping the Future of Geopolitics

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, November 20, 2017
Abstract in English: 
In today’s turbulent world, where governments and international organisations are increasingly faced with more uncertainty and volatility, this year’s event will zoom into emerging challenges and opportunities relevant to the European Union, highlighting the importance of strategic foresight and anticipatory governance in policy- and decision-making.
Forward-looking approaches are all the more important in a world of ‘Geopolitical Recession’, where multilateralism and the rules-based international order are under pressure, and new actors and technologies have the potential to be real geostrategic game changers. Against this backdrop, how can Europe ensure that it holds its future in its own hands? What must it do to better prepare for an uncertain future and tackle new security challenges?
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92
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Silk Road 2.0: US Strategy toward China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, October 4, 2017
Abstract in English: 
The balance in Eurasia is shifting. China’s President Xi Jinping has ambitious visions for Asia, while the rest of the world reshuffles to find its place in the rapidly changing global order. Each nation guesses at the United States’ new role in the world, while China broadcasts its own role across the globe, ready to challenge those who stand in opposition to its vision. China’s impact is global: reaching from the perils of the Korean peninsula; stretching across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa; and influencing regimes along the way. During this historic moment, the importance of Asia to US interests grows all the greater.
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66
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Reforming and Reorganizing U.S. Foreign Assistance: Increased Efficiency and Effectiveness

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, July 24, 2017
Abstract in English: 
CSIS convened a bipartisan Task Force on Reforming and Reorganizing U.S. Foreign Assistance in response to the March 1, 2017, executive order asking all federal departments and agencies to submit reorganization plans that will “improve efficiency, effectiveness, and accountability” and to the president’s FY2018 budget request.1 The Trump administration is right to question whether the current foreign assistance system is optimized to meet the challenges of the 21st century. Although many Americans believe that foreign assistance makes up 25 percent or more the federal budget, it is no more than 1 percent. However small a percentage, it is important to note that these funds do not represent pure altruism; they are smart investments that contribute to the national security and prosperity of the United States.

Though it intends to align priorities, strategy, budget, and work force, the Trump administration’s first budget proposal includes significant cuts to foreign assistance funding and runs the risk of having budgeted amounts—rather than U.S. national interests—drive creation of strategy and organization. This would produce suboptimal outcomes, particularly if the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) were to be subsumed into the Department of State as some have suggested. It is not in the national interest to remove the development leg from the U.S. national security stool.
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54
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