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Foreign affairs

Third powers in Europe's east

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, March 13, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Relations between most of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries and third powers have been visibly intensifying in recent years. China, Turkey, Iran and the Arab states are all a bigger presence in the region than was the case a decade ago. This trend is driven by, on the one hand, the growing economic and foreign policy ambitions of the third powers, and on the other by the EaP countries’ eagerness to expand their economic and diplomatic links with powers other than the EU, US or Russia. Through a strategy of increased engagement with the third powers, these countries are seeking to diversify their trade and foreign policy options, in the process even further diluting what was once primarily a Russian sphere of influence.
This Chaillot Paper examines the geopolitical repercussions of the rising presence of third powers in the region, and how the growing constellation of partnerships between the EaP countries and these powers serves a range of strategic purposes for the actors involved.
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126
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Dealing with diversity-The EU and Latin America today

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, May 4, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This Chaillot Paper examines the relationship between the EU and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It contends that the original assumptions underpinning EU policy towards the region no longer apply, due to the erosion of the liberal consensus, as well as the ongoing obstacles to regional integration in LAC.
Highlighting the various shortcomings in this bi-regional relationship, the paper argues that focusing on bilateral relations between the EU and individual countries is the way to move forward today, as it is in this sphere that deeper and more concrete cooperation has been strongest. This is because this level of interaction is best suited to accommodate an increasingly diverse region.
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50
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The Global Innovation Sweepstakes: A Quest to Win the Future

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, June 26, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The world is on the cusp of an unprecedented technological revolution, one that will have far-reaching social, economic, and geostrategic consequences.How the United States and other major actors position themselves as innovators and adaptors of emerging technologies will determine their economic fate and geostrategic standing.
This report seeks to answer the fundamental questions raised by the unfolding technological revolution.
The key recommendations in this report deal not just with the potential problems between states, but also address some of the inequities that are growing within societies due in part to emerging technologies.
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108
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Russia’s New State Armament Programme Implications for the Russian Armed Forces and Military Capabilities to 2027

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, May 10, 2018
Abstract in English: 
In this paper, we consider the main objectives of GPV 2027 (gosudarstvennaia programma vooruzheniia, Russian for "10-year state armament programme") and examine whether Russia’s financial and defence-industrial capabilities are sufficient to meet them. We then consider how the Russian armed forces are likely to be equipped by the mid-2020s, should the main objectives of GPV 2027 be achieved. Although the programme itself is classified, enough details have entered the public domain – for instance, through statements by officials, news reports, federal budgets and draft budgets – for educated inferences to be made as to its broad contours, likely priorities and strategic direction. Such assessments are the basis of this paper.
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42
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Carbon Risk and Resilience How Energy Transition is Changing the Prospects for Developing Countries with Fossil Fuels

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Abstract in English: 
International climate commitments and the global shift towards a decarbonized economy are challenging tried and tested models of development. This presents serious risks and opportunities for countries like Ghana, Tanzania, Guyana and Mozambique, where there are hopes that fossil fuel discoveries will transform their economies. Drawing on discussions with national governments, multilateral development banks (MDBs) and donor agencies, and a series of modelled scenarios, this paper sets out how carbon risk – defined in this paper as the economic risks associated with dependence on or exposure to high-carbon sectors – will affect developing countries with fossil fuels in the coming decades. It also makes recommendations for governments and their development partners that should enhance economic resilience and competitiveness throughout their transition.
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97
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Who Said What? The Security Challenges of Modern Disinformation

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, February 22, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The reach and speed of the Internet and social media have escalated the potential impact of disinformation. Increases in data transmission capacity coupled with a shift towards programmatic advertising have resulted in a precipitous decrease in the ability of traditional journalism to mediate the quality of public information. Conventional journalism has been partially displaced by a torrent of data from an infinite number of originators. Within that torrent is a current of lies and distortions that threatens the integrity of public discourse, debate and democracy.
Raised public awareness is needed to distinguish the real from the false. There are many ways for governments and organisations to counter the threat, but there is no guarantee that even effective counter campaigns can defeat the high volume flow of malicious communications.
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124
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Opportunity for all: promoting growth and inclusiveness in the Middle-East and North Africa

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The inclusive growth and job creation agenda has moved to the forefront of national dialogues in Middle-East and North African countries in recent years. Yet much work remains as countries move toward implementation of pro-inclusive growth policies that will be critical to the economic success of the region.
This paper seeks to pave the way for further operationalizing the inclusive growth agenda by exploring the key issues the MENA region faces in its efforts to promote inclusive growth. Given that many reforms are already underway in the region and the intention of the paper is to chart a future course for policies to enhance inclusive growth, the paper intentionally emphasizes the key areas where faster and deeper progress is needed. It also underscores the need for policies to be tailored to country-specific circumstances since “one size” cannot fit all, especially in a region as diverse as MENA.
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123
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Re-energising Europe

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, November 15, 2017
Abstract in English: 
As the EU emerges from this decade of crisis, it is clear that an open and frank debate within and between member states – on the issues that concern them most and spark the deepest divisions – is essential.
It enables the development of responses that reflect the interests of all EU countries. It can also help to restore a sense among the elite and the public that belonging to the Union is still good for them and their countries – and is equally beneficial for all member states.
That is what the New Pact for Europe project has been all about: providing a platform for and fostering such debates, and exploring how the major challenges facing Europe are interconnected. It can also help to deliver solutions that will demonstrate that EU membership is still a win-win for everyone– not for the sake of the EU project itself, but for the sake of the citizens whom it exists to serve.
That process has led to the current report, which reflects the differences of perception, experience and current concerns to elaborate the key elements of an ambitious but realistic package deal. This comprehensive bargain - which covers the economic and social, migration, and security fields - could provide a basis to re-energise and galvanise support for the EU.
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120
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UK-EU security cooperation after Brexit

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Abstract in English: 
In an increasingly interconnected world, EU Member States have sought ways to work together against cross-border threats, including organised crime, terrorism and cybercrime, through different agencies and cooperative measures. This report examines the UK’s interaction with those measures after Brexit, and the prospects for future security cooperation between the UK and the EU.
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59
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Deception operations

Abstract Original Language: 
Souvent assimilées à la ruse et aux stratagèmes, les opérations de déception sont une pratique de guerre à la fois ancienne et méconnue, tant au niveau stratégique que tactique ou opératif. Leurs principaux procédés sont la dissimulation, la simulation ou l'intoxication, qi toutes contribuent à tromper l'ennemi et lui faire croire à ne illusion qui doit causer sa perte. Malgré une efficacité maintes fois démontrée dans l'histoire, cette pratique ne va pas sans poser de dilemmes-d'ordre culturel et éthique mais aussi en matière d'allocation des ressources. Alors que progressent sans cesse dans les armées le développement des réseaux, la numérisation et l'intelligence artificielle, les nouvelles technologies semblent toutefois offrir un terrain fertile à un renouveau des opérations de déception. Bien employées, celles-ci permettraient de nuancer la fin du confort opératif prédit aux forces occidentales et d'éviter l'avènement d'un nouveau blocage tactique.
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, June 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Often associated with cunning and stratagems, deception operations are as old as warfare while frequently neglected, whether at the strategic, tactical or operational levels. Its main methods are concealment, simulation and intoxication, all of which help to deceive the enemy and make him believe in an illusion aimed at causing his loss. Despite its proven effectiveness, this practice is not without cultural, ethical as well as resource allocation dilemmas. Modern armed forces are witnessing the constant upgrading of information networks, digitization and the development of artificial intelligence. These new technologies seem to provide a fertile ground for a renewal of deception operations. If well used, the latter would help mitigate the "end of the operational comfort" (i.e. the end of the material, technological and strategic superiority allowing western powers to deploy their forces without encountering major hindrances nor strong resistance from the enemy) predicted to Western forces and prevent a new tactical blockage.
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Number of pages: 
60
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