Foreign affairs

This Chaillot Paper contextualises the dilemmas facing EU policymakers as Europe experienced an unprecedented influx of migrants and refugees in 2015-2016. Analysing and comparing the differing perspectives of external experts and internal practitioners, it examines how the EU’s enlargement, neighbourhood and development policies evolved in response to the migration crisis.
The paper identifies nine important shifts in European foreign policy that took place during the crisis, offering an explanation of why each occurred.

Relations between most of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries and third powers have been visibly intensifying in recent years. China, Turkey, Iran and the Arab states are all a bigger presence in the region than was the case a decade ago. This trend is driven by, on the one hand, the growing economic and foreign policy ambitions of the third powers, and on the other by the EaP countries’ eagerness to expand their economic and diplomatic links with powers other than the EU, US or Russia. Through a strategy of increased engagement with the third powers, these countries are seeking to diversify their trade and foreign policy options, in the process even further diluting what was once primarily a Russian sphere of influence.
This Chaillot Paper examines the geopolitical repercussions of the rising presence of third powers in the region, and how the growing constellation of partnerships between the EaP countries and these powers serves a range of strategic purposes for the actors involved.

This Chaillot Paper examines the relationship between the EU and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It contends that the original assumptions underpinning EU policy towards the region no longer apply, due to the erosion of the liberal consensus, as well as the ongoing obstacles to regional integration in LAC.
Highlighting the various shortcomings in this bi-regional relationship, the paper argues that focusing on bilateral relations between the EU and individual countries is the way to move forward today, as it is in this sphere that deeper and more concrete cooperation has been strongest. This is because this level of interaction is best suited to accommodate an increasingly diverse region.

In this paper, we consider the main objectives of GPV 2027 (gosudarstvennaia programma vooruzheniia, Russian for "10-year state armament programme") and examine whether Russia’s financial and defence-industrial capabilities are sufficient to meet them. We then consider how the Russian armed forces are likely to be equipped by the mid-2020s, should the main objectives of GPV 2027 be achieved. Although the programme itself is classified, enough details have entered the public domain – for instance, through statements by officials, news reports, federal budgets and draft budgets – for educated inferences to be made as to its broad contours, likely priorities and strategic direction. Such assessments are the basis of this paper.

International climate commitments and the global shift towards a decarbonized economy are challenging tried and tested models of development. This presents serious risks and opportunities for countries like Ghana, Tanzania, Guyana and Mozambique, where there are hopes that fossil fuel discoveries will transform their economies. Drawing on discussions with national governments, multilateral development banks (MDBs) and donor agencies, and a series of modelled scenarios, this paper sets out how carbon risk – defined in this paper as the economic risks associated with dependence on or exposure to high-carbon sectors – will affect developing countries with fossil fuels in the coming decades. It also makes recommendations for governments and their development partners that should enhance economic resilience and competitiveness throughout their transition.

The reach and speed of the Internet and social media have escalated the potential impact of disinformation. Increases in data transmission capacity coupled with a shift towards programmatic advertising have resulted in a precipitous decrease in the ability of traditional journalism to mediate the quality of public information. Conventional journalism has been partially displaced by a torrent of data from an infinite number of originators. Within that torrent is a current of lies and distortions that threatens the integrity of public discourse, debate and democracy.
Raised public awareness is needed to distinguish the real from the false. There are many ways for governments and organisations to counter the threat, but there is no guarantee that even effective counter campaigns can defeat the high volume flow of malicious communications.

As the EU emerges from this decade of crisis, it is clear that an open and frank debate within and between member states – on the issues that concern them most and spark the deepest divisions – is essential.
It enables the development of responses that reflect the interests of all EU countries. It can also help to restore a sense among the elite and the public that belonging to the Union is still good for them and their countries – and is equally beneficial for all member states.
That is what the New Pact for Europe project has been all about: providing a platform for and fostering such debates, and exploring how the major challenges facing Europe are interconnected. It can also help to deliver solutions that will demonstrate that EU membership is still a win-win for everyone– not for the sake of the EU project itself, but for the sake of the citizens whom it exists to serve.
That process has led to the current report, which reflects the differences of perception, experience and current concerns to elaborate the key elements of an ambitious but realistic package deal. This comprehensive bargain - which covers the economic and social, migration, and security fields - could provide a basis to re-energise and galvanise support for the EU.

In an increasingly interconnected world, EU Member States have sought ways to work together against cross-border threats, including organised crime, terrorism and cybercrime, through different agencies and cooperative measures. This report examines the UK’s interaction with those measures after Brexit, and the prospects for future security cooperation between the UK and the EU.