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Globalisation

Global Trends and the Future of Latin America: Why and How Latin America Should Think About the Future

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, September 1, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Latin America must strengthen its ability to plan forward and deepen its strategic reflection if it is to govern better and improve the design of public policies. Achieving this may require countries in the region to familiarize themselves with global scenarios and to explore the types and scale of challenges that they might confront. A national perspective is not sufficient; a global vision is essential.
Globalization creates a stream of effects that cannot be controlled by individual countries. With an outlook that takes into consideration the rest of the world, Latin American governments could improve their capacity to anticipate events and, when those events occur, to respond effectively to uncertainty and rapid change. Through strategic planning that envisions diverse and myriad situations, countries of the region may be able to skirt damage or even identify advantageous responses. In effect, human action might alter trajectories in ways that could bring the region closer to desirable outcomes.
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56
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Global Economic Prospects: Divergences and Risks

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Growth prospects have weakened throughout the world economy. Global growth for 2016 is projected at 2.4 percent, unchanged from the disappointing pace of 2015, and 0.5 percentage point below the January forecast. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are facing stronger headwinds, including weaker growth among advanced economies and persistently low commodity prices, as well as lackluster global trade and capital flows. Divergences between commodity exporters and importers persist. Conditions remain markedly challenging for commodity exporters, which continue to struggle to adjust to the new era of depressed prices. In contrast, commodity importers are showing greater resilience to headwinds, although the expected growth windfall from low energy prices has been surprisingly modest. Global growth is projected to pick up slowly to 3.0 percent by 2018, as stabilizing commodity prices provide support to commodity exporting EMDEs. Downside risks have become more pronounced. These include deteriorating conditions among key commodity exporters, softer-thanexpected activity in advanced economies, rising private sector debt in some large emerging markets, and heightened policy and geopolitical uncertainties. While policy space for monetary and fiscal stimulus is narrow, structural reforms could boost growth both in the short and the long term.
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173
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The Evolution of US and European Monetary Policy after Bretton Woods - A Historical Overview and Lessons for the Future

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, September 7, 2016
Abstract in English: 
While a new Bretton Woods-style agreement is highly unlikely, the US and Europe should help update the existing monetary system with a new set of best practices and norms.
Many of the seemingly ‘established’ norms of monetary policy are in fact quite recent, having emerged since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s. These norms include inflation targeting, central bank independence from political authority, and the separation of monetary policy from regulatory activity such as bank supervision. Central bank orthodoxy has also, until recently, largely ignored the international ‘spillover’ effects of monetary policy.
The 2008–09 financial crisis and its aftermath changed the picture. Monetary policy was recruited to assist governments in stabilizing financial markets and restoring liquidity. And conventional assumptions about the primacy of central banks’ responsibility for price stability were challenged as quantitative easing (QE) proved less inflationary than feared. Indeed, eight years after the crisis, the inflation rate – the most significant driver of monetary policy under the old regime – remains consistently low in most major economies.
In this context, the United States faces some unique challenges. The dollar’s status as the global reserve currency means that the US Federal Reserve’s decisions often have international ramifications. Emerging markets are becoming more exposed to spillovers from US policy, as globalization renders their economies and financial systems more interdependent and as finance becomes increasingly important relative to other economic activity.
In Europe, the euro’s problems reflect similar shortcomings to those that undermined the 1944 Bretton Woods system. Launched in 1999, the euro was in effect an attempt to maintain fixed exchange rates between member states. However, the single currency’s designers underestimated the difficulty of maintaining such a system across multiple national economies, each with different growth profiles and fiscal policies. The euro’s structural problems have been exacerbated by the secular shift from a world of politically ‘subservient’ central banks, as existed before the creation of the European Central Bank (ECB), to the current system in which the ECB is highly independent.
Despite the current strains on the monetary system, consensus on a formalized new international framework in the mould of Bretton Woods is unlikely. A more plausible outcome is the organic development of a new set of norms articulating principles both for the mechanisms by which central banks pursue price stability and for the governance of central banks themselves. The United States and Europe are likely to be at the forefront of this process. They should proactively shape the new norms to ensure that they meet the challenges of today’s evolving economic landscape.
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26
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Toward global water security

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, August 23, 2016
Abstract in English: 
This report assesses the conditions under which a global Water Grand Strategy (WGS) might be created and implemented by stakeholders in the United States within the next one to two years. While numerous American organizations are addressing water challenges the world over, no explicit policy or vision coordinates their multiple endeavors. As a result, the United States does not maximize its influence in finding solutions to the world’s most pressing water challenges.
This report evaluates the need for a WGS and explores the possible ends of such a strategy. It summarizes what the United States is already doing in the water space,1 and identifies the current model’s strengths and weaknesses. It outlines a process for forging a “Whole of America” water strategy—a stakeholder-driven process—and addresses key implementation challenges.
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22
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Evaluating Future U.S. Army Force Posture in Europe

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
Abstract in English: 
This report focuses on recalibrating U.S. Army forces in Europe in light of the security challenges posed by a resurgent Russia and offers 37 recommendations for building and a credible and sustainable deterrence posture in Europe over the next decade. This report opens with a broad overview of the challenges posed by Russia and reviews past and current U.S. Army force posture in Europe. It then identifies and offers recommendations to address sustainment challenges for ongoing U.S. deterrence and reassurance efforts; tackling key military capability areas and gaps; realigning U.S. force posture in Europe; and strengthening civilian efforts and civil-military cooperation.

This report is the second phase of a two-phase study conducted by CSIS reviewing U.S. Army force posture in Europe in light of the recent changes to the regional security environment. The Phase I report (available here) was released in February 2016 and focuses on immediate steps to bolster deterrence and the implications for the Defense Department’s fiscal year (FY) 2017 budget request.
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93
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ASEAN and RUSSIA: a Future-Oriented Multidimensional Strategic Partnership

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, May 11, 2016
Abstract in English: 
ASEAN-Russia relations have expanded significantly since ties were established in 1991 and upgraded to full dialogue partnership in 1996. The cooperation over the years has contributed to a closer partnership, a common vision on many global issues and a mutual interest in the promotion of peace, stability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region.
To explore ways to enhance the relationship, the ASEAN-Russian Ministerial Meeting on 5 August 2015 established an ASEAN-Russia Eminent Persons Group (AREPG) to propose recommendations to move this Partnership forward. The AREPG conducted its discussions over four months from January 2016.
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127
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Pacific Alliance 2.0: Next Steps in Integration

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, May 25, 2016
Abstract in English: 
The Pacific Alliance–an innovative pact among Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru–has unprecedented opportunity to capitalize on political changes in Brazil and Argentina and move the region into a new era of regional integration. A new publication by the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and the Bertelsmann Foundation, released just weeks ahead of the Alliance’s Sixth Presidential Summit in Chile, says that now is the moment for the Alliance to deepen engagement with Mercosur and build on efforts to strengthen financial market, energy, trade, and foreign policy coordination.
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27
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Shape, Steer, and Sustain A US Strategy for the New Global Economic Order

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, June 2, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Ten years ago, most observers predicted a period of smooth sailing for the world economy. Today, the world looks very different. The global economy experienced a major crisis in 2008, from which many countries have not fully recovered. Europe faces a series of major economic, financial, social, and political stresses, from outside its borders and from within. Many of the fastest-growing economies from that time, especially commodity exporters, are now experiencing serious difficulties. China is still growing at a reasonable rate, but more slowly than a few years ago. Much of the Middle East is in turmoil and its economies, with rare exceptions, are suffering. The Doha Round has proved highly disappointing, failing to meet lofty expectations. Global debt rose significantly, and job creation has stalled in many parts of the world.
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67
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Reviewing the Implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development - “Early Movers” Can Help Maintain Momentum

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, June 1, 2016
Abstract in English: 
At the Sustainable Development Summit in September 2015 the heads of state and government of all the UN member states adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Several countries, including Germany, committed to move rapidly on implementation. During the UN High-level Political Forum (HLPF) in July 2016, twentytwo countries volunteered to conduct national reviews of their implementation. Moreover, UN member states plan to adopt a resolution on the follow-up and review of the 2030 Agenda before that meeting. What initiatives would be most helpful for maintaining the momentum and making ambitious progress on implementing and reviewing the Agenda?
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4
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The Future of US Global Leadership Implications for Europe, Canada and Transatlantic Cooperation

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, May 10, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Today’s global challenges are developing faster than ever as the world grows more interdependent. Advanced technologies are empowering individuals and organizations in new and unpredictable ways, creating new partnerships but also enabling the rise of new adversaries. A wide array of actors – from non-state groups to rogue states to revisionist powers – are testing these new tools. In parallel, the international system built in the second half of the 20th century is being challenged by emerging regional and global powers, while environmental and other transnational issues have become a determining factor in geopolitics. The resulting complexity and growing number of challenges have made the global security environment more difficult to navigate. It is in this context that the transatlantic relationship is evolving.
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20
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