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Globalisation

Trend compendium 2030

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Abstract in English: 
The TREND COMPENDIUM 2030 is a global trend study compiled by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. It describes seven megatrends that will shape the world over the next 20 years. All trends have a broad impact on how we do business – Therefore, Roland Berger experts have identified corporate actions that companies must take today. The study also takes a look at how we will live in 2030.

Roland Berger experts first screened all relevant trend, scenario and future studies worldwide. Then they verified, analyzed and consolidated the results, using them to define seven megatrends. They next broke down the seven megatrends into 21 subtrends, looking at each from a global perspective and the viewpoints of industrialized and developing countries. Finally, they identified corporate actions that companies worldwide should consider taking today.

Following the executive summary and an introduction in chapters A and B, chapter C presents all trends and corporate actions in detail, while chapter D gives you an idea of life in 2030. In addition, every chapter presents the most important sources, organizations and indicators to help you keep track of the changes in the world as well as dig deeper into the trends presented.
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Global Trends 2030: challenges and opportunities for Europe

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, July 9, 2013
Abstract in English: 
This report was written for the Transatlantic Partnership for the Global Future, a project organized in cooperation with the Government of Sweden, to bring together experts from government, business, and academia to address critical questions relating emerging technologies to global challenges and explore their effects on transatlantic relations in the near- and long-term.

Over the next generation, Europe will be buffeted by waves of transformation. The reaction to the economic crisis, the rapid empowerment of individuals thanks to the growth of information technology, the reality of climate change, the diffusion of power across the globe, and demographic changes will shape the continent’s future. We are approaching an inflection point that could lead to a future of economic and political volatility and zero-sum behavior of inward-looking nationalisms; a more collaborative rules based world marked by cooperative efforts at global problem-solving; or perhaps most likely, some hybrid featuring elements of both. Tailored to address the distinct challenges Europe faces, this report draws upon the US National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds and provides further, in-depth analysis on the policy priorities and opportunities for Europe in the future.
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Empowering Europe’s Future: Governance, Power and Options for the EU in a Changing World

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Abstract in English: 
Looking to 2030, global change will be occurring at an accelerated pace in an unpredictable fashion. The world in 2030 will be a more fragile place due to the rise of economic interdependence, the diffusion of power, and the disruptive potential of technological innovation and extreme events. Ten years ago, for example, the SARS outbreak cost businesses $60 billion – and caused the loss of about 2% of East Asian GDP. Vulnerability to unexpected events – such as the 2010 Icelandic ash-cloud or the 2011 Japanese tsunami – will only increase as global supply chains expose states and societies to the effects of political crises and disruptions, even in distant regions. Weak or rigid governance systems will increasingly struggle to respond to these trends.
In this less predictable world, power shifts will not be linear, not least due to the proliferation of domestic challenges in emerging economies. Whether they are in relative rise or decline, the risk may be that many governments become more introverted and less inclined to international engagement and compromise, as they cope with increasing turbulence at home. Conversely, a faster-changing world will offer wide-ranging options and new opportunities to more actors – both state and non-state – who are flexible and quick enough to seize them. Cities may lead efforts to reduce carbon emissions; smaller states, like Sweden, Singapore or Qatar, may shape international agendas and regional affairs through the use of technical leadership or coalition-building. Power shifts will not necessarily be a zero-sum game; the gains of some need not entail losses for others.
Governments, regional organisations and international institutions will struggle to cope with the twin trends of increased interdependence and greater fragmentation. With a larger range of influential state and non-state actors, managing complexity and setting political agendas will become more challenging at both the domestic and international levels. This could result in a deficit of leadership and governance on the global stage. Future influence in international affairs will depend on how state and non-state actors deploy their respective power assets. As power becomes more diffuse, it will also become more constrained, which will put a premium on the ability to partner and build political coalitions.
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After the Fall: The Future of Global Cooperation

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Abstract in English: 
International cooperation has been a recurrent theme in each of the thirteen Geneva Reports on the World Economy published by CEPR and ICMB since 1999. The 2004 report, International Economic and Financial Cooperation: New Issues, New Actors, New Responses, analysed this issue in some depth. This report, the fourteenth in the series, picks up this issue once again, but this time the approach is different, the recommendations more cautious and incremental, and the prognosis bleaker. This is not surprising: the authors demonstrate very clearly why international cooperation is difficult at the best of times, and very difficult indeed in the midst of a severe financial crisis.
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