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Globalisation

The Future of Global Trade IN FOCUS: Between Multilateralism and Regionalism

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, October 27, 2017
Abstract in English: 


This paper briefly describes how international trade has been transformed in recent years and what has determined its increasing politicisation. It argues that the two main pillars of the global trading system—international trade regulation and the dispute settlement mechanism—are being put under strain due to various developments.

The whole system is being challenged by opposing tendencies: on the one hand, the multiplication of global risks and opportunities demands common action and multilateral rule-making; on the other, we are witnessing increasing fragmentation and regionalisation. The realistic objective that can now be set for the future development of world trade is the preservation of as much as possible of the present system and its improvement in specific areas.
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12
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Global Future Survey 1/2017

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, July 5, 2017
Abstract in English: 
554 experts from 105 countries - these are their opinions and assessments on developments in the next five years. With the Global Future Survey, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation is beginning a special project.
The results of the first interviews in early 2017 make it clear: The Federal Republic of Germany enjoys a very good reputation around the world. Furthermore, young talent increasingly want to come to Germany. European experts judge that the Federal Republic should assume more responsibility in Europe and the majority of experts rank protection of human rights and the rule of law as their country’s most pressing duty. In Europe and internationally, the greatest danger to the stability of states is seen as populistic tendencies.
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11
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Global Trends to 2030: The Future of Migration and Integration

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Thursday, October 18, 2018
Abstract in English: 
International migration and geographic mobility have major implications for societies and economies. This is true at global level, and, perhaps even more so, at European level. The special impact on Europe is partly down to its history. Until just two generations ago, most European countries recorded much more emigration than immigration. In fact, some EU Member States and neighbouring countries still do which implies a potential loss of talent and skills. As a result, there are no ‘classical’ immigration countries on the European continent, comparable to the US, Canada or Australia. This goes some way towards explaining why Europe’s migration policies often lack coherence, selectivity and a focus on socio-economic outcomes. Since the 1990s temporary or permanent admission granted by EU Member States is dominated more by rights-based and humanitarian considerations (family reunion, asylum, humanitarian protection) than by economic interests.
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10
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Global Trends to 2030: The Future of Work and Workplaces

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Publication date: 
Thursday, October 18, 2018
Abstract in English: 
In some ways, the future of work is here; in others, it is shrouded in uncertainty or heralded with great expectations. Of course, throughout human history, work has changed, as have societies. Transformations in how and where work is conducted, by whom it is performed and under what conditions, as well as how it is remunerated and valued, have come hand in hand with changes in individual and family life, social cohesion and wellbeing, and civic and political life. Today, a number of observed mega-trends are again shifting the tectonics of work: Pervasive digital technology is opening up boundless new opportunities while at the same time blurring workplace boundaries and impacting human behaviours and expectations in ways that may still be unknown. Continuing population growth will create the biggest – but potentially most precarious and polarised – global workforce to date, with sustainability implications of an existential scale.
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14
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Two futures and how to reconcile them

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, November 3, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Although there is little argument about the fact that climate change and the digitalisation of the economy are the two main trends that will matter most over the coming decades, to date they have predominantly been considered separately rather than together. The first step towards shaping our future is being able to think about it, however, and the compartmentalisation of research efforts (climate change on the one hand and digitalisation on the other) is unhelpful in this respect. Yet cross-cutting investigations present a challenge since the academic communities and social dynamics underlying both fields of research are entirely distinct. The aim of this Foresight Brief is therefore merely to initiate a debate by analysing the different versions of these two narratives. The author then examines the potential interrelation and ranking of these narratives and explores the emergence of digital and green capitalism and its consequences. The publication concludes by proposing a scenario involving a two-step approach to change.
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11
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The Future of the European Budget - What does the Commission's White Paper mean for EU Finances?

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Publication date: 
Thursday, July 27, 2017
Abstract in English: 
In its recent White Paper, the European Commission describes scenarios for the future of European integration and imagines what the EU could look like by 2025. As a contribution to the ongoing debate, this paper outlines what the different scenarios might mean for the EU budget.
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12
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Tomorrow’s Silk Road: Assessing an EU-China Free Trade Agreement – 2nd edition

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Publication date: 
Monday, June 25, 2018
Abstract in English: 
In developing its international trade strategy since 2006, the EU has placed a strong emphasis on concluding Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with dynamic East Asian economies. Until very recently, however, no explicit mention has been made of China – the region’s largest and most dynamic economy – as a possible candidate for an FTA with the EU. This oversight becomes even more glaring if one considers the magnitude of the economic intercourse that already exists today between these two trading partners. China is the logical sequel in the Union’s trade strategy for East Asia. This study attempts to provide a solid analytical basis for negotiations on an EU-China Free Trade Agreement (formally, Free Trade Area treaty). The first official suggestion for such an FTA, made by Chinese President Xi Jin Ping in the spring of 2014, has recently been considered, cautiously and under various conditions, by the EU as well.
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333
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Global Public Goods That Matter for Development: A Path for US Leadership

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Sunday, December 6, 2015
Abstract in English: 
The United States has been at the forefront of providing several DR-GPGs, including peace and security via its contributions to international peacekeeping, the monitoring of international sea trade routes, its engagement in forums such as the Financial Action Task Force to stem flows of funding to terrorist organizations, and more.Yet it has not fully capitalized on its comparative advantage in research and development at home that matters especially for the world’s poor, or on its opportunities for globally transformative investments abroad in such areas as clean power and disease surveillance.
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10
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Next Generation Financing for Global Health: What, Why, When, How?

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Publication date: 
Tuesday, February 16, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Many researchers and policymakers have hypothesized that funding models tying grant payments to achieved and verified results - next generation financing models - offer an opportunity for global health funders to push forward their strategic interests and accelerate the impact of their investments. This brief, summarizing the conclusions of a CGD working group on the topic, outlines concrete steps global health funders can take to change the basis of payment of their grants from expenses (inputs) to outputs, outcomes, or impact. While the report focuses primarily on how the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria can make this shift, this brief offers insights for other global health funders looking to address their strategic objectives, increase the efficiency and effectiveness of their investments, and increase their health impact for the populations they serve.
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7
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Odd Couple: The Future of the Australia-UAE Partnership

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, October 5, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Considering its geographic distance and lack of formal allies, the Middle East has played an outsized role in the history of Australia's global engagement. While Australia's interests in the region are real and increasing, as a middle power with finite resources it must take a smart approach to pursuing them. Australia has a strong track record of effective security partnership and investing in a close relationship with a key partner there offers a range of benefits. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is an ideal candidate as the two countries have rapidly built a strong and collaborative relationship, and they share a surprising number of mutual interests. But an expanded relationship faces several natural constraints, and both countries must have a clear-eyed and well-articulated understanding of the benefits and limitations if it is to mature.
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14
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