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Globalisation

Global Trendometer - Essays on medium- and long-term global trends

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, July 17, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The EU faces challenges from the outside and the inside. Most of those are the symptoms of big underlying trends, and handling them needs foresight. The Global Trendometer tries to provide foresight for decision makers in the EU by analysing the changes in these long-term trends. This publication does not offer answers or make recommendations. It presents summarised information derived from a range of carefully selected sources. This issue of the Global Trendometer analyses long-term trends on India, the labour-share of income, and democracy and artificial intelligence. It also features two-pagers on geoengineering, remittances, food security in China, economic waves, the US after Trump, public procurement and deep fakes.
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56
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The Future of International Trade and Investment (ESPAS Ideas Paper)

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Publication date: 
Thursday, September 20, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This paper examines current trends, uncertainties and wild cards in relation to international trade and investment. It then considers implications for the European Union.
The European Union’s interest remains clear: a rules-based order is better than a transactional or winner-takes-all approach to international trade. But it is wise to plan for the worst, while hoping for the best.
The future of international trade and investment may lie somewhere between the extremes of the status quo and a reversion to protectionism. This would involve a thorough revision and rebalancing of multilateral norms, to take account of major global changes on many fronts. The EU has traditionally been a leading player in the creation of international institutions and norms. But the days when Europe could dictate the global agenda are over. Europe’s role will be increasingly a matter of seeking to influence events, rather than asserting dominance. In the coming decades, internal unity and a strong sense of purpose will be all the more important.
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12
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The Future of Warfare (ESPAS Ideas Paper)

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The Future of Warfare (ESPAS Ideas Paper)
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, September 20, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Warfare is shaped by geopolitical, societal, technological, economic and military trends:
Geopolitical: The multipolar relations between ever bigger political entities with overlapping spheres of influences are defined by surpise and uncertainty. Smaller political entities will be weaker and proxy wars more common in the future. Detterence will be reinterpreted, vulnerable states more prone to aquire nuclear weapons and international norms weakened. Megacities will be central battlefields that leave ground forces vulnerable.
Social: Warfare will shift to the internet, it will be uncontrollably ‘open-source’, live and shocking, with ever more spectacular terror. Armies will be more network-centred, waging more personalised wars and will have to find new ways to interact with democratic societies. Women in combat and the disappearance of world war veterans change the way people think about war.
Technological: Mankind becomes more powerful over time, with non-state actors possessing capabilities currently restricted to super-powers. It will struggle to outlaw technological advances and wage war without violence. The West will lose its technological superiority and will have even bigger problems in knowing how and what to research. Both inferior and highly developed armies will develop new ways of engaging the enemy. Artificial intelligence (AI) will mean that democratic armies have to balance the ‘human in the loop’ policy against effectiveness.
Economic: The economy of the opponent will be a bigger target than in the past, with commercial and dual-goods becoming more important, and the environment a more widely used weapon.
Military: Possible future military situations will be more diverse then ever. Western armies will be vulnerable to cheap weaponry. The idea that wars will be easy to win will make the world more dangerous.
Key uncertainties are China, the cyber-dimension, robotics, autonomous systems and artificial intelligence, paradigmatic breakthroughs such as quantum computing, general AI and anti-ballistic systems, nuclear detterence and nuclear bargaining. Ten key questions for policy-makers focus on strategic autonomy, adaptation, balancing reserves, R&D, cooperation and export, interventions, China, weakening norms, anticipation, communication and procurement.
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Prevention better than cure: the EU’s quiet diplomacy in Asia

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, June 7, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Preventive diplomacy, or the resolution of disputes by peaceful means, has been one of the foundations of the EU’s foreign and security policy in Asia and beyond and stands as an expression of a rule-based international order. Moreover, in its key strategic documents, including the recently released Global Strategy, the EU has highlighted the importance of preventive diplomacy, as reflected in the proposed ‘integrated approach’ to conflicts and crises.
This Report, which draws on the main presentations made during the 2016 CSCAP EU Committee meeting devoted to this topic, examines the role of the EU as a preventive diplomacy actor and explores how in pursuing this strategy it can contribute positively to security in the Indo-Pacific region.
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72
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EYE report 2018: Speak up Europe! 100 ideas for a better future

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Sunday, July 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This is the report from the 2018 European Youth Event (EYE). It covers a wide range of topics and issues, organised around 5 main axes:
-Young and Old: How to ensure the Digital evolution will work for a fairer society and to adapt the EU to this changing environment
-Rich and Poor: Working for a more equal society (in terms of revenues, employment, gender...)
-Apart and Together: Working for a stronger Europe and promoting solidarity in and outside the EU
-Safe and Dangerous: Safety in the age of digital revolution and increasingly turbulent world
-Local and Global: Tackling climate change and working towards sustainable development
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43
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The Global Innovation Sweepstakes: A Quest to Win the Future

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Publication date: 
Tuesday, June 26, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The world is on the cusp of an unprecedented technological revolution, one that will have far-reaching social, economic, and geostrategic consequences.How the United States and other major actors position themselves as innovators and adaptors of emerging technologies will determine their economic fate and geostrategic standing.
This report seeks to answer the fundamental questions raised by the unfolding technological revolution.
The key recommendations in this report deal not just with the potential problems between states, but also address some of the inequities that are growing within societies due in part to emerging technologies.
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108
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World Migration Report 2018

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, November 15, 2017
Abstract in English: 
This of the world migration report is the first in the revised series designed to better contribute to understandings of current and strategic migration issues. Part I includes separate chapters on global migration trends and patterns; regional dimensions and developments; and a discussion of recent contributions to migration research and analysis by academia and a wide range of different organizations. The six chapters in Part II cover a range of “complex and emerging migration issues” including:
• the development of global governance frameworks for international migration;
• the relationship between migration and rapidly changing levels and types of transnational connectivities;
• migrants’ perspectives on migration journeys;
• media reporting on migration and migrants;
• the relationships between migration and violent extremism;
• migrants and cities.
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364
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Tourism for Development Volume II: Good Practices

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, June 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The present volume is the second of the Tourism for Development report and compiles good practices from across the globe that highlight tourism’s contribution to sustainable development.
In 2017, a global consultation was conducted to collect country practices and practical case studies from developed and developing economies that demonstrate how sustainable tourism has been a factor for development. A total of 23 case studies were selected as exemplary practices from all regions of the world and represent initiatives from the public and private sectors, as well as from local communities. This report present them to help communities elsewhere in the world to develop sustainable tourism practices that fit their local conditions.
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116
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Tourism for Development Volume I: Key Areas for Action

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, June 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The report is structured around the five key elements of sustainable development to which tourism stands to make a significant, lasting contribution:
1. Sustainable economic growth
2. Social inclusiveness, employment and poverty reduction
3. Resource efficiency, environmental protection and climate change
4. Cultural values, diversity and heritage
5. Mutual understanding, peace and security
The report demonstrates – through theory and practical case studies – how tourism can contribute to these key areas of development.
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144
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Migration in the 2030 Agenda

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Sunday, January 15, 2017
Abstract in English: 
In September 2015, the UN General Assembly adopted the 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development, and migration features prominently in this Agenda.
The purpose of this collection of papers is first of all to draw attention to the many dimensions of the migratory experience covered by the SDGs and secondly, to offer practical suggestions as to how these aspects of migration can be addressed effectively during the implementation process.
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156
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