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Globalisation

Gas in the European Energy Transition: Challenges and Opportunities

Title Original Language: 
Le gaz dans la Transition Energétique Européenne: Enjeux et Opportunités
Abstract Original Language: 
Les performances environnementales du gaz lui permettent de réduire rapidement et dès maintenant les émissions de CO2 du secteur électrique quand il remplace le charbon, deux fois plus émetteur. Sa flexibilité lui permet aussi de pallier l'intermittence du solaire et de l'éolien, facilitant ainsi le développement des ENRs. Il contribue de même à un approvisionnement électrique fiable et réduit les coûts d'équilibrage du système électrique. Il pourrait aussi être utile pour réduire les émissions des transports routiers et maritimes.
Le gaz a donc toute sa place dans le futur bouquet énergétique européen, a condition de décarboner encore son usage, d'augmenter l'intégration et la compétitivité du marché gazier européen et d'assurer la sécurité d'un approvisionnement qui dépendra de plus de plus des importations extra-européennes.
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, January 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Thanks to its environmental performance, gas can help to quickly reduce the CO2 emissions of the electricity production when replacing the twice-as-emitting coal power. Its flexibility also help make up for the intermittence of the sun and wind powers, thus facilitating to the development of the renewable energy production. It similarly contributes to a reliable electricity supply and reduce the balancing cost of the electric system. It could also be used in the near future to reduce the emissions of the road and maritime transportation sectors.
In nutshell, gas could play a key role within the future European Energy Cluster, provided the further decarbonization of it usage, the increase in the integration and competitiveness of the European gas market, and the securing of its supply-which will increasingly depend on extra-European imports.
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90
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The Future of the Economic and Monetary Union

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, June 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
While there is general agreement within the euro zone that further reform is needed, there is however disagreement as to which measures should be implemented. In a nutshell, member states disagree over the balance between risk sharing and risk reduction. Risk reduction proponents place the emphasis on crisis prevention, while those who emphasise risk sharing focus on crisis mitigation. This book represents a concerted effort by four prominent scholars from France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands to summarise the discussion in those countries and analyse in which areas the member states may find common ground to press ahead with reforms. The authors have been asked to provide a background to how the euro has been perceived in their respective countries and identify which EMU reforms would be acceptable in the short- to medium-term perspective.
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90
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The Cost of Non-Europe, Revisited

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Sunday, April 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
In this paper we quantify the "Cost of Non-Europe", i.e. the trade-related welfare gains each country member has reaped from the European Union. Thirty years after the terminology of Non-Europe was used to give estimates of the gains from further integration, we use modern versions of the gravity model to estimate the trade creation implied by the EU, and apply those to counterfactual exercises where for instance the EU returns to a "normal'', shallow-type regional agreement, or reverts to WTO rules. Those scenarios are envisioned with or without the exit of the United Kingdom from the EU (Brexit) happening, which points to interesting cross-country differences and potential cascade effects in doing and undoing of trade agreements.
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50
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Global food production and prices to 2050

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Abstract in English: 
This report uses three scenarios to investigate the possible response of world food prices, food production and trade to the projected increase in demand. This work builds on agrifood modelling in ABARES Food demand to 2050: Opportunities for Australian agriculture (Linehan et al. 2012a).
The uncertainties and dynamics surrounding factors such as climate change, international trade policy and biofuels policies add to the complexity of modelling global agrifood markets out to 2050. However, scenario analysis, which isolates each of these issues, allows for an assessment of indicative price and production responses over the projection period across different regions and agrifood commodities. A reference scenario is developed for this project using a set of assumptions drawn from the literature. The reference scenario serves as a starting point for the policy analysis and shows the sensitivity of the projections to changes in assumptions and parameter values.
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41
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Making America First in the Digital Economy: The Case for Engaging Europe

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, May 8, 2018
Abstract in English: 
In an age of transatlantic tensions over the Iran deal, trade balances, and steel tariffs, digital policy is uniquely poised to offer opportunities for greater US-EU cooperation. At the same time, the digital arena also has the potential to be a policy minefield, with issues such as privacy, digital taxation, and competition policy still unresolved. Making America First in the Digital Economy: The Case for Engaging Europe addresses these challenges and explores how the US-EU digital agenda fits in the larger transatlantic relationship.
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24
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Transatlantic Relations: Converging or Diverging?

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Publication date: 
Thursday, January 18, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The report makes the case that while the transatlantic relationship may currently be traversing a period of divergence, this need not lead to a structural split over the longer term. Notwithstanding the present choppy waters, the fundamentals in relations between the US and Europe remain strong, and the prospects are mostly positive.
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100
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The Global Risks Report 2018

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 17, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Last year’s Global Risks Report was published at a time of heightened global uncertainty and strengthening popular discontent with the existing political and economic order. The report called for “fundamental reforms to market capitalism” and a rebuilding of solidarity within and between countries. One year on, a global economic recovery is under way, offering new opportunities for progress that should not be squandered: the urgency of facing up to systemic challenges has, if anything, intensified amid proliferating indications of uncertainty, instability and fragility.
Humanity has become remarkably adept at understanding how to mitigate conventional risks that can be relatively easily isolated and managed with standard risk management approaches. But we are much less competent when it comes to dealing with complex risks in the interconnected systems that underpin our world, such as organizations, economies, societies and the environment. There are signs of strain in many of these systems: our accelerating pace of change is testing the absorptive capacities of institutions, communities and individuals. When risk cascades through a complex system, the danger is not of incremental damage but of “runaway collapse” or an abrupt transition to a new, suboptimal status quo.
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80
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Munich Security Report 2018: "To the Brink - and Back?"

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, February 16, 2018
Abstract in English: 
For international security, the year 2017 was marked – among others – by signs of a continued erosion of the so-called liberal international order and an increasingly unpredictable US foreign policy. Tensions in many parts of the world have been growing: the rhetoric between the US and North Korea has escalated, the rift in the Gulf has become deeper, not only between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and major arms control treaties are at stake. In the last year, the world got closer – much too close! – to the brink of significant conflict, and we must do whatever we can to move away from the brink.

It is in this context that the Munich Security Conference Foundation publishes its annual Munich Security Report (download the report as a PDF here). Under the heading "To the Brink - and Back?", the Munich Security Report 2018 provides an overview of major security policy issues and features data, analyses, maps and infographics. As a companion and impulse for the 54th edition of the Munich Security Conference, the Munich Security Report serves as background reading for conference participants, but is also made available to the general public. The last report was downloaded close to 35,000 times and received ample press coverage in both German and international media.

This year's main topics include the crises of the liberal international order and the impact of the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency. It also looks at the new momentum in European defense policy and the potential impact of Brexit. In addition, the report analyses regional developments in Central and Eastern Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. It also provides insights into the state of global nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts, the issue of environmental and climate security as well as cyber security.
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88
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The Future of the United States and Europe: An Irreplaceable Partnership

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, April 13, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The partnership between the United States and Europe has been an anchor of the world’s economic, political and security order for more than seven decades. The U.S. relationship with the European Union is the deepest in the world – but we should not take it for granted. Transatlantic relations are at a critical point in their history, and it is necessary to reassess their trajectory, as well as the prospects for EU-U.S. cooperation. In a new publication, CSIS, in partnership with Chatham House, assesses the top policy priorities on both sides of the Atlantic, identifying areas of potential cooperation as well as growing divergences to be managed. United States cooperation with Europe is essential to meeting global challenges – this is a conclusion that every U.S. administration has reached in the past 70 years. Our recommendations seek to strengthen that relationship and promote that community of democratic values that upholds the international order.
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51
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Cause for concern? The top 10 risks to the global economy

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Publication date: 
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
There has arguably never been a greater disconnect between the apparent strength of the global economy and the magnitude of geopolitical, financial and operational risks that organisations are facing. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects momentum in the global economy to remain strong in 2018. The US economy will continue to motor along, the euro area will absorb more of the slack in its labour markets and Chinese consumption, investment and exports will all remain strong. Higher commodity prices will prove a fillip for emerging-market exporters, while a gradual tightening of monetary conditions will not take hold to the extent that it slows growth. Taken together, these factors mean that the global economy is forecast to expand by 3% in 2018, up from a mediocre annual average pace of 2.6% in 2015-16.
Despite the encouraging headline growth figures, the global economy is facing the highest level of risk in years. Indeed, this favourable economic picture appears to come from a completely different world to the one where headlines are dominated by protectionist rhetoric, major territorial disputes, terrorism, surging cyber-crime and even the threat of nuclear war. The global economy has seen periods of high risk before, with threats emanating from the regional and the national level, as well as from state and non-state actors. What is unique about this period of heightened risk, however, is that unlike other periods in recent decades, risks are also originating from the global level, as the US questions its role in the world and partially abdicates from its responsibilities. These moves have signalled the end of the US-led global order and the beginning of a new order. Although the new order will emerge over the next decade, there will be a period of uncertainty as multiple global and regional powers vie for power and influence. For organisations attempting to negotiate these concerns in order to take advantage of the numerous and growing economic opportunities, the stakes are obviously high.
In this report we identify and assess the top ten risks to the global political and economic order. Each of the risks is not only outlined, but also rated in terms of its likelihood and its potential impact on the global economy. This is a small snapshot of our risk quantification capabilities. We also provide operational risk analysis on a country-by-country basis for 180 countries through our Risk Briefing. Meanwhile, we provide detailed credit risk assessments on 131 countries via our Country Risk Service.
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25
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