Growth

Climate change is having a profound impact on people’s lives across the world. Mitigating and adapting to climate change will require major economic investment and coordinated action to transition to a sustainable, low-carbon economy. The 2022 World Trade Report explores the complex interlinkages between climate change and international trade and how international trade and trade rules can contribute to addressing climate change.

Global growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of this year, with weakness continuing in 2024. Inflation pressures persist, and tight monetary policy is expected to weigh substantially on activity. The possibility of more widespread bank turmoil and tighter monetary policy could result in even weaker global growth. Rising borrowing costs in advanced economies could lead to financial dislocations in the more vulnerable emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). In low-income countries, in particular, fiscal positions are increasingly precarious. Comprehensive policy action is needed at the global and national levels to foster macroeconomic and financial stability. Among many EMDEs, and especially in low-income countries, bolstering fiscal sustainability will require generating higher revenues, making spending more efficient, and improving debt management practices. Continued international cooperation is also necessary to tackle climate change, support populations affected by crises and hunger, and provide debt relief where needed. In the longer term, reversing a projected decline in EMDE potential growth will require reforms to bolster physical and human capital and labor-supply growth.

An energy mix enabled by clean technologies will be far more mineral-intensive than its hydrocarbon-based predecessor. Demand for minerals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt is projected to skyrocket over the coming years, with supply chains largely unprepared to scale up accordingly. And procurement of these minerals has been plagued by concerns over environmental impact, human rights violations, and state monopoly over specific parts of the value chain, posing both moral and strategic issues. The onus now falls on policymakers in the United States and Canada to develop resilient, sustainable, and transparent mineral supply chains. As two of the world’s most advanced economies, the US and Canada have the opportunity to take the lead in preempting the emergence of some of the hazards that characterize the oil and gas-based system. It will not be easy; value chains are full of choke-points, and mining operations have not always followed best practices. But to both enable a smooth energy transition and ensure that procurement does not negate minerals’ carbon-reducing benefits, the US and Canada must act now.

The Agreement establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a legal instrument – an agreement among the African Union Member States to create a single market. But the AfCFTA represents much more. On the one hand, it is a significant milestone on the journey to African integration and development. On the other hand, it is a catalyst for new ways of doing business, producing, working and trading within Africa and with the rest of the world. This report demonstrates that, beyond the numbers and negotiations, the realization of this promise will depend on decisive actions and the collective efforts of the African people. Concrete policy measures and investments are needed, in particular to ensure that women and youth, who account for the majority of the population, business owners and workforce, can be better integrated into the value chains, jobs and opportunities stemming from the AfCFTA. The AfCFTA is also central to recovering from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and enhancing Africa’s resilience. Trade of all types of goods and services underpins efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, and the Agenda 2063 of the African Union cannot be implemented without the AfCFTA. In anticipation of trading under AfCFTA terms in 2021, the ‘Futures Report: Making the AfCFTA Work for Women and Youth’ is a narrative about the promise of the AfCFTA as told through the voices of Africa’s producers, traders, policy officials and regulators. Under the Agreement, African Union Member States, now also AfCFTA State parties, explicitly seek to achieve gender equality and enhance the export capacity of women and youth. This report presents opportunities in the AfCFTA, as pursued by women and youth entrepreneurs and business owners, and discusses ongoing efforts by Governments and development institutions to ensure that these groups derive maximum benefit from the Agreement. Policy actions to implement the protocols already in force are also presented to enable the AfCFTA to work to the greatest advantage of Africa’s women and youth.

Opinion of the European Economic and Social Committee on the Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council – 2020 Strategic Foresight Report – Strategic foresight – Charting the course towards a more resilient Europe