Growth

The Gulf monarchies – the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)) – are undergoing dramatic change. The last decade has seen rapid growth in their populations, economies and education systems, coupled with deep changes in the flow of information, the make-up of the population and the economic expectations of the younger generation. The Gulf states are increasingly important foreign policy players and investors, which means that a growing range of countries have a direct interest in their wealth and stability.

This report makes a number of recommendations for GCC governments and international allies. Key points are summarized below. In short, it argues that the Gulf countries should seize the opportunity to carry out meaningful reforms towards more constitutional forms of monarchy. Failing that, the various dynamics of change – economic, demographic, social and political – will add to pressures on the states of the Gulf, and increase the risks of future conflict in a region of vital strategic importance to the rest of the world.

Europe’s economic growth since the start of the financial crisis has been sluggish, and the region faces difficult long-term demographic and debt-level challenges. But a new McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report, A Window of Opportunity for Europe, finds that the convergence of low oil prices, a favorable exchange rate, and quantitative easing has given these economies a chance to unlock new economic dynamism by undertaking ambitious reforms and stimulating job creation and investment.
The report identifies 11 growth drivers in three areas—investing for the future, boosting productivity, and mobilizing the workforce—that can help Europe achieve its aspirations. We find that by scaling and speeding reform, mostly at the national level, and stimulating investment and job creation throughout the region, Europe could close its output gap, return to sustained growth of 2 to 3 percent a year over the next ten years, unleash investments of €250 billion to €550 billion annually, and create more than 20 million new jobs (exhibit).

These guidelines correspond to a significant degree to policy priorities established by the Members of the European Parliament during the seventh parliamentary term through a large number of reports and resolutions which received broad support in the plenary. President Juncker's ten points are also broadly in line with several of the objectives set out in the 'Strategic Agenda for the Union in Times of Change', adopted in the European Council in June 2014 when it proposed Mr Juncker to the Parliament as its candidate for President of the Commission.
The potential economic benefits of new European-level action may be measured in terms of additional gross domestic product (GDP) generated or in savings in (current or potential) public expenditure or other expenditure, through a more efficient allocation of resources in the economy as a whole.
The analysis set out in this document suggests that there could be very significant economic gains of these kinds, amounting in time to a maximum achievable potential gain of approximately €1.7 trillion per year, on the basis that Mr Juncker's ten priorities were to be fully implemented in a form consistent with various policy requests made to date by the Parliament.

The survival and success of the European Union depend on the vitality of the Eurozone. The priority is therefore to give the Eurozone a clear perspective for the coming 10 to 15 years and gradually to transform it into a truly integrated area. This approach must embrace the commitments necessary to implement sound and convergent economic policies, a determination to embrace practical instruments of solidarity and the adoption of meaningful rules of governance. These are the keys to new economic growth and higher levels of employment.
The 28-member state European Union has too to find the path of rigour and efficiency. We should agree on a few essential political goals. These goals are already there in the treaties: their concrete implementation now has to be agreed and accepted by all Member States. Energy and the environment, the internal market, defence, and the necessary conditions for the free movement of individuals, are the key policies.

The Space Innovation and Growth Strategy, published in February 2010, created real momentum in the sector. It brought industry, academia and Government together around the common cause of driving economic growth and provided the foundation for a transition of the UK space sector from a niche industry towards a high-technology, mainstream, industrial and science sector.This report affirms the ambition to grow and identifies the new actions that are needed to deliver further growth.

Territorial foresight is a structured set of participatory vision building and strategic planning activities that allow regions to think, consider, debate and shape the medium to long-term future of their regions, provinces or cities. Many of the key process elements of foresight are widely used in strategic planning – the formation of expert panels, the use of socio-economic and environmental data consultation, brainstorming, trend and extrapolation and the setting of strategic goals. Foresight, unlike most approaches to strategic planning, deals with long-term prospects, and draws upon the views of multiple stakeholders.
This report analyses the interactions between European strategies and policies, and the activities of the analysed territorial foresights, in order to assess the potential opportunity to create a territorial foresight network or platform at the European level.

The quality of territorial foresight and, in particular, of urban foresight, is nowadays measured not so much in terms of the ability to anticipate possible futures, always challenged by the increasing uncertainty and the exponential rate of change, as in terms of the ability to construct collective visions of the future that are ambitious, proactive and engaging for stakeholders and citizens.
What foresight has to offer is its capacity to approach both long-term challenges, perceived in the present, as well as shared aims and values in a distant horizon. This publication attempts to address these challenges by ‘imagineering’ the future of cities though the application of methods and techniques drawn from the strategic foresight and prediction fields in a systematic, rigorous and holistic way.

Innovation is essential for France to be in the global competition in ten years, and maintain its standard of living and social model. The report outlines seven technological and industrial goals for France for 2030: energy storage, recycling of materials, the promotion of marine resources, green proteins, individualized medicine, silver economy and promotion of massive data (Big data).

Good foresight for Singapore not only draws attention to the broad global trends that will affect us, but also gathers insights from the society that we serve, to ensure the human element is preserved in the decision-making process of government and public policy. Our foray into participatory futures through Our Singapore Conversation saw us reaching out to Singaporeans from all walks of life to discuss the kind of future Singaporeans wanted to see and how we could get there. This allowed us to better understand the needs and aspirations of Singaporeans, with regard to issues such as society’s definitions of success and the desire for a greater sense of assurance. This prepares us for the future, in both adaptive and normative ways, and
has led to tangible shifts to policy-making in Singapore.

This paper identifies and analyses some key challenges that OECD and partner economies may face over the coming 50 years if underlying global trends relating to growth, trade, inequality and environmental pressures prevail. For example, global growth is likely to slow and become increasingly dependent on knowledge and technology, while the economic costs of environmental damages will mount. The rising economic importance of knowledge will tend to raise returns to skills, likely leading to further increases in earning inequalities within countries. While increases in pre-tax earnings do not automatically transform into rising income inequality, the ability of governments to cushion this impact may be limited, as rising trade integration and consequent rising mobility of tax bases combined with substantial fiscal pressures may hamper such efforts. The paper discusses to what extent national structural policies can address these and other interlinked challenges, but also points to the growing need for international coordination and cooperation to deal with these issues over the coming 50 years.