Growth

In the first part of this study, the authors present an overview of the state of ”Social Europe” today with an emphasis on the consequences of the new economic governance on national employment and social policies and the impact of the current crisis on national welfare states. In the second part of the study, the authors propose three possible scenarios for EMU’s future. These scenarios are built on different assumptions and they include a set of initiatives in the fields of the fiscal, economic, banking and political union as well as EMU’s social dimension. The authors assess each scenario on the basis of their main consequences for the euro area economy and for national welfare states from core and peripheral member states.

Global governance – the collective management of common problems at the international level – is at a critical juncture. Although global governance institutions have racked up many successes since they were developed after the Second World War, the growing number of issues on the international agenda, and their complexity, is outpacing the ability of international organisations and national governments to cope. With the emergence of rapid globalisation, the risks to the international system have grown to the extent that formerly localised threats are no longer locally containable but are now potentially dangerous to global security and stability. At the beginning of the century, threats such as ethnic conflicts, infectious diseases, and terrorism as well as a new generation of global challenges including climate change, energy security, food and water scarcity, international migration flows and new technologies are increasingly taking centre stage.

This report, edited by Álvaro de Vasconcelos, contains the findings of the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) research project. The EUISS was commissioned to produce the ESPAS Report on Global Trends 2030 by an EU inter-institutional task force. An interim version of this report was presented to the European Union in October 2011. The report identifies several global trends that will shape the world in 2030. They include: The empowerment of the individual, which may contribute to a growing sense of belonging to a single human community; Greater stress on sustainable development against a backdrop of greater resource scarcity and persistent poverty, compounded by the consequences of climate change; The emergence of a more polycentric world characterised by a shift of power away from states, and growing governance gaps as the mechanisms for inter-state relations fail to respond adequately to global public demands.

This report presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances.

In April 2012, the Director-General of the WTO, Pascal Lamy, invited a diverse group of prominent non-state stakeholders to analyse challenges to global trade opening in the 21st century. The Panel held a series of closed meetings and also consulted extensively with interested parties. Chapter 1 of the Panel’s report discusses the contribution that trade opening has made to growth, development and prosperity. It also discusses the challenges of managing jobless growth, high unemployment, poverty, inequality, the environment and sustainable development, and the role of trade as well as investment in this context. Chapter 2 examines certain transformational factors that have shaped trade in recent years and will continue to do so in the future. These include increasing globalization, geographical shifts in patterns of growth, trade and investment, technological advances, the rise of international value chains, the proliferation of preferential trade agreements, and the growing influence of non-tariff measures. Chapter 3 contains a number of recommendations for possible action. They are not prioritized in terms of their degree of importance by the Panel. They are organized around an exploration of the principles and processes driving trade relations, along with a series of specific issues that have either been raised in other contexts, including the Doha Round, or which the Panel believes warrant consideration. The Panel does not offer specific recommendations to deal with the Doha Round, other than noting that the issues in the Doha agenda will not disappear and that not fulfilling this collective undertaking could put at stake the multilateral trading system itself.

As the world slowly emerges from the devastating Financial Crisis, it is time to reflect on the lessons of this turbulent period and think afresh about how to prevent future crises. The Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations focuses on the increasing short-termism of modern politics and our collective inability to break the gridlock which undermines attempts to address the biggest challenges that will shape our future. In Now for the Long Term, we urge decision-makers to overcome their pressing daily preoccupations to tackle problems that will determine the lives of today’s and tomorrow’s generations.