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Growth

Productivity and Jobs in a Globalised World

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, April 26, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This report looks at how regional policies can support productivity growth and jobs. While there has been a remarkable decline in inequality in OECD countries, inequality among regions within certain countries has increased over the same time period. Regions that narrowed productivity gaps tended to benefit from economically vibrant tradable sectors and integration with well-functioning cities. This report considers in detail the role of the tradable sector as a driver of productivity growth and its relationship with employment. It addresses the possible risks of a growing tradable sector and how diversification is central to strengthening regional economic resilience. It considers how regions integrate global value chains and highlights the role of regional and policy links in fostering productivity growth and job creation. It asks what policies can help better anticipate or cushion shocks from trade in specific regions and, more generally, what strategies and framework conditions are conducive for regional productivity and employment growth.
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188
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The future of industry in Europe

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Abstract in English: 
This study analyses the key challenges for Local and Regional Authorities (LRAs) in developing a long-term, structured industrial policy, with a global view. The policy should promote structural change and raise the industrial contribution to GDP to the 20% target set by the European Commission (EC) in December 2014.
New means of production incorporate a mix of processes located in both highcost and low-cost countries and are based on a wide range of factors enabled by technological developments. Significant changes in consumption are increasingly driven by individual needs which are more sensitive to social and environmental aspects. Together these require a more flexible, hybrid and servitisation-oriented industrial paradigm.
The way LRAs can guide this shift strictly depends on their ability to combine strengths in traditional sectors with innovative trajectories of industrial development in dynamic new sectors. Faced with a growing complexity of industrial challenges, LRAs are called on to design and implement a systemic industrial policy coordinated with national and EU level policies, pulled by vision and pushed by competition.
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143
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The Global Risks Report 2018

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 17, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Last year’s Global Risks Report was published at a time of heightened global uncertainty and strengthening popular discontent with the existing political and economic order. The report called for “fundamental reforms to market capitalism” and a rebuilding of solidarity within and between countries. One year on, a global economic recovery is under way, offering new opportunities for progress that should not be squandered: the urgency of facing up to systemic challenges has, if anything, intensified amid proliferating indications of uncertainty, instability and fragility.
Humanity has become remarkably adept at understanding how to mitigate conventional risks that can be relatively easily isolated and managed with standard risk management approaches. But we are much less competent when it comes to dealing with complex risks in the interconnected systems that underpin our world, such as organizations, economies, societies and the environment. There are signs of strain in many of these systems: our accelerating pace of change is testing the absorptive capacities of institutions, communities and individuals. When risk cascades through a complex system, the danger is not of incremental damage but of “runaway collapse” or an abrupt transition to a new, suboptimal status quo.
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80
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The Future of the United States and Europe: An Irreplaceable Partnership

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, April 13, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The partnership between the United States and Europe has been an anchor of the world’s economic, political and security order for more than seven decades. The U.S. relationship with the European Union is the deepest in the world – but we should not take it for granted. Transatlantic relations are at a critical point in their history, and it is necessary to reassess their trajectory, as well as the prospects for EU-U.S. cooperation. In a new publication, CSIS, in partnership with Chatham House, assesses the top policy priorities on both sides of the Atlantic, identifying areas of potential cooperation as well as growing divergences to be managed. United States cooperation with Europe is essential to meeting global challenges – this is a conclusion that every U.S. administration has reached in the past 70 years. Our recommendations seek to strengthen that relationship and promote that community of democratic values that upholds the international order.
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51
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Cause for concern? The top 10 risks to the global economy

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Publication date: 
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
There has arguably never been a greater disconnect between the apparent strength of the global economy and the magnitude of geopolitical, financial and operational risks that organisations are facing. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects momentum in the global economy to remain strong in 2018. The US economy will continue to motor along, the euro area will absorb more of the slack in its labour markets and Chinese consumption, investment and exports will all remain strong. Higher commodity prices will prove a fillip for emerging-market exporters, while a gradual tightening of monetary conditions will not take hold to the extent that it slows growth. Taken together, these factors mean that the global economy is forecast to expand by 3% in 2018, up from a mediocre annual average pace of 2.6% in 2015-16.
Despite the encouraging headline growth figures, the global economy is facing the highest level of risk in years. Indeed, this favourable economic picture appears to come from a completely different world to the one where headlines are dominated by protectionist rhetoric, major territorial disputes, terrorism, surging cyber-crime and even the threat of nuclear war. The global economy has seen periods of high risk before, with threats emanating from the regional and the national level, as well as from state and non-state actors. What is unique about this period of heightened risk, however, is that unlike other periods in recent decades, risks are also originating from the global level, as the US questions its role in the world and partially abdicates from its responsibilities. These moves have signalled the end of the US-led global order and the beginning of a new order. Although the new order will emerge over the next decade, there will be a period of uncertainty as multiple global and regional powers vie for power and influence. For organisations attempting to negotiate these concerns in order to take advantage of the numerous and growing economic opportunities, the stakes are obviously high.
In this report we identify and assess the top ten risks to the global political and economic order. Each of the risks is not only outlined, but also rated in terms of its likelihood and its potential impact on the global economy. This is a small snapshot of our risk quantification capabilities. We also provide operational risk analysis on a country-by-country basis for 180 countries through our Risk Briefing. Meanwhile, we provide detailed credit risk assessments on 131 countries via our Country Risk Service.
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25
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Ibrahim Index of African Governance

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, October 11, 2017
Abstract in English: 
The Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) is a tool that measures and monitors governance performance in African countries. The Mo Ibrahim Foundation defines governance as the provision of the political, social and economic public goods and services that every citizen has the right to expect from their state, and that a state has the responsibility to deliver to its citizens. In the IIAG, country performance in delivering governance is measured across four key components that effectively provide indicators of a country’s Overall Governance performance.
The key components that form the four categories of the IIAG as described in the diagram below are Safety & Rule of Law, participation & Human Rights, Sustainable Economic Opportunity and Human Development. Each of these categories contains subcategories under which we have organised various indicators that provide quantifiable measures of the overarching dimensions of governance. In total, the IIAG contains 100 indicators.
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176
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African futures: Horizon 2025

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, September 20, 2017
Abstract in English: 
If Sub-Saharan Africa’s future had to be encapsulated in a single word, it would be transformation. In recent years the continent has undergone significant economic, socio-political, and technological transformations, a process which is likely to accelerate over the coming decades. While it would be an overstatement to proclaim that the future will be African, there are strong indications that the global importance of the continent is set to rise – and not only as a source of risk factors spilling over from poverty and instability. By 2045, approximately a quarter of the world’s population will be African. Looking ahead, there is also the potential for Africa’s economic growth to outpace the global average. The expansion of foreign direct investment (FDI), which today already outstrips aid, could drive further integration of African countries in the world economy. The diversification of Africa’s relationship with external partners – which now not only include traditional Western partners such as the EU, but also Asian, Middle Eastern and Gulf countries – will also contribute to increasing Africa’s prominence in the global arena.
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84
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Global Competitiveness Report 2017-2018

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, September 26, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Ten years on from the global financial crisis, the prospects for a sustained economic recovery remain at risk due to a widespread failure on the part of leaders and policy-makers to put in place reforms necessary to underpin competitiveness and bring about much-needed increases in productivity, according to data from the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2017-2018.
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393
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Innovation-Led Economic Growth: Transforming Tomorrow’s Developing Economies through Technology and Innovation

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, September 5, 2017
Abstract in English: 
The world faces a confluence of changes and technological advances that are fundamentally altering the relationship between individuals, economies, and society. Innovations in a diverse set of fields including robotics, genetics, artificial intelligence, Internet-enabled sensors, and cloud computing are individually disruptive. Collectively they are world changing. Experts around the world have come up with different names and descriptions for this phenomenon: Klaus Schwab calls it the “fourth industrial revolution”; Alec Ross points toward the “industries of the future”; Steve Case recognizes it as the “third wave” of the Internet; and Martin Ford looks toward the “rise of the robots.”

Although these thinkers have slightly different visions for the future, there is a shared recognition that existing assumptions and economic models need adjustment. For both developed and developing countries, the innovation- and technology-driven economy offers significant risks and opportunities. On the one hand, this change offers the potential for increased global prosperity, efficiency, and quality of life. On the other hand, if poorly managed, this transition could disrupt employment models, pathways out of poverty, and stability around the world.
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Number of pages: 
60
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Charting the Future Now: European Economic Growth and its Importance to American Prosperity

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, March 10, 2017
Abstract in English: 
The European Union (EU), a vital partner for the United States, is facing numerous challenges, including massive migration flows, the UK’s vote to leave the EU (Brexit), and rising support for anti-EU and populist parties in upcoming elections in several European countries. In Charting the Future Now: European Economic Growth and its Importance to American Prosperity, the Atlantic Council’s EuroGrowth Initiative proposes pragmatic steps to restore European economic growth, safeguard the European project, and reinvigorate the transatlantic alliance.
Backed with rigorous data, the report highlights the crucial importance of the European economy for the US and proposes ways to galvanize the transatlantic relationship. Focusing on feasible projects and reforms, the report then looks at various policy proposals to increase growth and create jobs in the short, medium, and long term.
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76
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