RSS:

Newsletter subscribe:

Growth

Germany 2030: Germany's Prosperity Rests on Innovation

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Abstract in English: 
In the coming years, prosperity in Germany will have to be generated through technology and knowledge to an increasing degree. Technological progress will become the sole driver of growth in the long run as growth contributed by labour and capital declines in the face of demographic change.
Germany must now chart the course for this transformation.

Radical technological change will slash marginal costs, opening up completely new business models. This will change value added in key sectors including mobility, healthcare and energy, and increase integration with services.

Germany must take more concerted action than it has so far to set the course for industrial policy going forward. Although Germany still boasts a range of outstanding benefits as a business location, it must tackle weak points in the start-up environment, venture capital, public investment and regulatory parameters for key technologies.

The strategic priorities of German industrial policy must continue to be the deepening of the European single market and the international trade and investment regime. Bilateral and multilateral trade policy has moved into rougher waters while the untapped potential right here in the European Union
is wholly underestimated.

In the digital world too, a good balance must be found between productivity and social cohesion. While this vision is still forming on the horizon, the political course taken now will determine whether it will turn into a positive or a plaintive reality.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
40
Share: 

Urban world: The global consumers to watch

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Sunday, March 20, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Dramatic demographic shifts are transforming the world’s consumer landscape. Our new research finds just three groups of consumers are set to generate half of global urban consumption growth from 2015 to 2030.
Until the turn of this century, population growth generated more than half of all global consumption. But between 2015 and 2030, three-quarters of global consumption growth will be driven by individuals spending more. This shift has profound implications for companies. What’s now important are emerging demographics: the latest report from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) finds that nine groups will generate three-quarters of global urban consumption growth to 2030, and just three of these will generate half of consumption growth and have the power to reshape global consumer markets over the next 15 years.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
140
Share: 

Social Innovation: A Guide to Achieving Corporate and Societal Value

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, February 25, 2016
Abstract in English: 
As a central effort in the Global Challenge Initiative on Economic Growth and Social Inclusion, this is a “how to guide” for companies to create social and business value. Drawn from a series of workshops and interviews with more than 35 executives from leading companies, and guided by the Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Social Innovation, this guide offers an action framework.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
34
Share: 

Intelligent Assets: Unlocking the Circular Economy Potential

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, March 8, 2016
Abstract in English: 
The impending digital transformation of the Fourth Industrial Revolution holds the potential to redefine the very basis of our materials-reliant industrial economy. Enabled by the internet of things, a new model of growth gradually gaining independence from finite resource extraction is emerging. Can pervasive connectivity become the new infrastructure enabling effective material flows, keeping products, components and materials at their highest value at all times, thus enabling the coming of age of the circular economy?
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
56
Share: 

ASEAN Strategic Action Plan for SME Development 2016-2025

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
Abstract in English: 
ASEAN is now at the final phase of the implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint. Under the third pillar “Equitable Economic Development”, the development of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) is highlighted where the progress of SMEs is key towards narrowing the development gap.

The establishment of the AEC, expected by the end of 2015, involves initiatives for regional economic integration. Work to deepen both internal and external integration will continue to evolve beyond 2015. It is anticipated that the enhanced movement of goods, services, investment, capital and skilled labour will attract investment and enhance economic activities in ASEAN. While this will open up new opportunities, at the same time, such benefits of integration must also be fully recognized by SMEs in the ASEAN region.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
42
Share: 

The Future of Electricity in Fast-Growing Economies

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Electricity markets in fast-growing economies face different challenges than those in more mature markets. Mature markets with stable demand for electricity are transitioning to a more sustainable mix of power generation technologies while continuing to support economic growth with affordable and secure power. Fast-growing markets are trying to serve voracious new demand for electricity as their economies grow, as more customers are connected to the grid and as per capita consumption grows.

This report recognizes the need for policy to balance the objectives in the Forum’s energy architecture triangle: security and accessibility, short- and medium-term affordability, and environmental sustainability. The fact that 1.2 billion people lacked access to electricity in 2012, combined with the scale of poverty, will inevitably focus attention on accessibility and affordability. But even as they make progress on achieving reliable universal access, fast-growing markets will need to develop roadmaps that take advantage of new technologies to make their power affordable while increasing environmental sustainability.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Share: 

Europe: What to watch out for in 2016-2017

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, January 15, 2016
Abstract in English: 
The European Union seems to be moving from one emergency to the next. Europe’s leaders are in crisis-fighting mode: reactive, improvising, often uncoordinated – but ultimately modestly successful.
The Eurozone has not splintered; Russia is smarting under Western sanctions; some burden-sharing on refugees has been agreed. Busy with short-term problems, however, Europeans have taken their eyes off more profound, long-term challenges. How the European Union copes with its immediate problems in the next couple of years will determine how the continent will fare in decades to come.
In this White Paper, we – the Global Agenda Council on Europe – are analysing some of the most pressing issues confronting the EU in 2016-2017. We present the choices that European leaders must make in the years ahead and explain how these could shape the Union’s medium to long-term development. To illustrate how different policy choices interact, we have drawn up two fictitious scenarios of how the EU could evolve in the next 10 years.
The immediate economic concerns that dominated the European agenda in 2008-2014 are lessening. The cyclical upswing in the European economy, however, must not make governments complacent about the need for reforms. Faced with stagnating or shrinking working-age populations, European countries simply must fix their productivity problem to generate long-term growth. In innovation and digitization, Europeans often seem obsessed with data privacy and protection rather than grasping new opportunities. The European Commission’s laudable attempts to integrate and improve EU markets – for example, for energy and capital – have so far been slow to get off the ground. The arrival of millions of migrants, asylum seekers and refugees is a great opportunity for an ageing Europe, but only if governments, together with the private sector, act swiftly to help the new arrivals find jobs.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
17
Share: 

African futures 2050- the next forty years, ISS monograph

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Abstract in English: 
In this monograph the Institute for Security Studies and the Pardee Center for International Futures provide an extensive analysis of the projected course of African development to 2050. Combining the deep and wide knowledge of Africa within the ISS with extensive use of the IFs modelling system, this discussion goes beyond past work in a number of ways. It looks across most major issue arenas: demographics, economics, sociopolitical change, the environment and human development itself, including health and education. It explores further into our future than perhaps any other extensive study of African futures has ever done. While not pushing forward specific policy initiatives, it provides a context within which those who pursue sustainable human development can consider policies.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
66
Share: 

Highway or Byway: The National Development Plan 2030

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, July 1, 2013
Abstract in English: 
This publication, the first in a series of three, considers the feasibility of the central economic growth target that is set out in South Africa’s National Development Plan 2030. It then explores some of the associated human development targets. The paper first looks at the core characteristics of the economy. Against that background and analysis we argue that the core economic growth target of 5,4 per cent average gross domestic product, the associated size of the economy and the income per capita targets are very ambitious. With a huge effort, clear leadership and painful adjustments the targets may be achievable, but it is hardly possible to overestimate the effort that will be required from across South Africa’s diverse interest groups and affected communities. Clearly the current capital- intensive nature of South Africa’s economic growth model will not succeed in delivering sufficient jobs without structural changes to the economy and to current policies. Many other targets, for example in education and infrastructure, are achievable with lower rates of economic growth. This may point to a lack of coherence between the models (and assumptions) used for detailed planning between the different sectors. While economic growth is very important for South Africa, the quality of growth is equally important if the country is to address its deep structural inequality and unemployment challenges.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
16
Share: 

South African Futures 2030: How Bafana Bafana made Mandela Magic

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, February 14, 2014
Abstract in English: 
This paper presents three scenarios for South Africa up to 2030: ‘Bafana Bafana’, ‘A Nation Divided’ and ‘Mandela Magic’. The nation’s current development pathway, called ‘Bafana Bafana’ is the well-known story of a perennial underachiever, always playing in the second league when the potential for international championship success and flashes of brilliance are evident for all to see.‘Mandela Magic’, on the other hand, is the story of a country with a clear economic and developmental vision, which it pursues across all sectors of society. Competition is stiff and the barriers to success are high. The scenario of ‘A Nation Divided’ reflects a South Africa that steadily gathers speed downhill as factional politics and policy zigzagging open the door to populist policies. The impact of the policy and leadership choices that South Africans will make in the years ahead, explored in this paper, is significant. The South African economy could grow 23 per cent larger in ‘Mandela Magic’ compared with its current growth path (‘Bafana Bafana’). The paper concludes with seven strategic interventions required to set South Africa on the most prosperous 'Mandela Magic' pathway.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
36
Share: 

Pages

Subscribe to RSS - Growth