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The Future of Jobs: Employment, Skills and Workforce Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, January 18, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Today, we are at the beginning of a Fourth Industrial Revolution. Developments in genetics, artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology, 3D printing and biotechnology, to name just a few, are all building on and amplifying one another. This will lay the foundation for a revolution more comprehensive and all-encompassing than anything we have ever seen. Smart systems—homes, factories, farms, grids or cities—will help tackle problems ranging from supply chain management to climate change. The rise of the sharing economy will allow people to monetize everything from their empty house to their car.
While the impending change holds great promise, the patterns of consumption, production and employment created by it also pose major challenges requiring proactive adaptation by corporations, governments and individuals. Concurrent to the technological revolution are a set of broader socio-economic, geopolitical and demographic drivers of change, each interacting in multiple directions and intensifying one another. As entire industries adjust, most occupations are undergoing a fundamental transformation. While some jobs are threatened by redundancy and others grow rapidly, existing jobs are also going through a change in the skill sets required to do them. The debate on these transformations is often polarized between those who foresee limitless new opportunities and those that foresee massive dislocation of jobs. In fact, the reality is highly specific to the industry, region and occupation in question as well as the ability of various stakeholders to manage change.
The Future of Jobs Report is a first step in becoming specific about the changes at hand. It taps into the knowledge of those who are best placed to observe the dynamics of workforces—Chief Human Resources and Strategy Officers—by asking them what the current shifts mean, specifically for employment, skills and recruitment across industries and geographies. In particular, we have introduced a new measure—skills stability—to quantify the degree of skills disruption within an occupation, a job family or an entire industry. We have also been able to provide an outlook on the gender dynamics of the changes underway, a key element in understanding how the benefits and burdens of the Fourth Industrial Revolution will be distributed.
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167
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Russia’s Sovereign Globalization: Rise, Fall and Future

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, January 5, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Two major goals have driven Vladimir Putin’s presidency: a controlling state and a prosperous economy. His central dilemma has been to manage the tension between those objectives. He has had to consider how Russia could reap prosperity through globalization while maintaining domestic control and great-power autonomy.
To achieve that end, Russia evolved a strategy of ‘sovereign globalization’. Initially, this involved managing the terms of economic engagement to limit external influence by reducing sovereign debt, circumscribing foreign ownership rights and maximizing the balance of benefits over obligations in global economic governance.
As Russia’s confidence grew, it sought to exert broader political influence by economic means, using its position as the major market of the former Soviet Union and dominant energy supplier to Europe.
A series of adverse developments undermined that strategy: the decline of energy-export-led growth, global energy market developments and EU responses to Russian policy. Those changes led to a sharp and unfavourable shift in the balance between opportunity and risk in Russia’s engagement with the global economy.
The unravelling of Russia’s strategy propelled events in Ukraine and triggered the present crisis in Russia–West relations. As a consequence, Russia’s distorted political economy is now under strain; its regional influence is waning; and Western sanctions are depriving it of goods, capital and technology.
Russia’s experiment with ‘sovereign globalization’ was a highly ambitious attempt to harness interdependence to the pursuit of power-political ends. For the first time, Russia used economic relations – its traditional weakness – as a source of strength. The failure of that strategy encourages pessimism about Russia’s prospects but optimism about globalization.
- See more at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/russias-sovereign-globalization-rise-fall-and-future#sthash.katIyU1J.dpuf
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The Future of Productivity

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, December 11, 2015
Abstract in English: 
This book addresses the rising productivity gap between the global frontier and other firms, and identifies a number of structural impediments constraining business start-ups, knowledge diffusion and resource allocation (such as barriers to up-scaling and relatively high rates of skill mismatch).

Analysis based on micro and industry-level data highlights the importance of reallocation-friendly policies, including well-functioning product, labour and risk capital markets, efficient judicial systems, bankruptcy laws that do not excessively penalise failure, housing policies that do not unduly restrict labour mobility, and improvements in public funding and organisation of basic research which do not excessively favour applied vs basic research and incumbents vs young firms.
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123
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Diversifying African Trade: The Road to Progress

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Abstract in English: 
Although African trade flows are accelerating at a healthy rate, most African governments have struggled to diversify their economies and to achieve inclusive, sustainable growth. “As Africans, we should be proud of our recent economic growth performance,” noted African Union (AU) Commissioner for Trade and Industry Fatima Haram Acyl in 2014, “but there should be no room for complacency.”
Increased trade could transform the African continent, which is home to thirty-three of the world’s least developed countries (LDCs) and accounted for only 3 percent of global trade in 2014. African nations that have implemented reforms supporting the free movement of goods, capital, and people have reaped a substantial development dividend and are ranked among the fastest growing economies in the world.
This report examines the current state of trade in Africa, identifies obstacles hindering economic diversification and growth, and offers policy recommendations based on these findings. It addresses the economic and geopolitical implications of the global collapse of commodity demand and China’s recent slowdown, as well as how regional trade agreements and regional economic communities (RECs) offer better opportunities for African economies to unlock growth.
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Unlocking the potential of the Internet of Things

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, June 12, 2015
Abstract in English: 
The Internet of Things—sensors and actuators connected by networks to computing systems—has received enormous attention over the past five years. A new McKinsey Global Institute report, The Internet of Things: Mapping the value beyond the hype, attempts to determine exactly how IoT technology can create real economic value.

Our central finding is that the hype may actually understate the full potential—but that capturing it will require an understanding of where real value can be created and a successful effort to address a set of systems issues, including interoperability.

To get a broader view of the IoT’s potential benefits and challenges across the global economy, we analyzed more than 150 use cases, ranging from people whose devices monitor health and wellness to manufacturers that utilize sensors to optimize the maintenance of equipment and protect the safety of workers. Our bottom-up analysis for the applications we size estimates that the IoT has a total potential economic impact of $3.9 trillion to $11.1 trillion a year by 2025. At the top end, that level of value—including the consumer surplus—would be equivalent to about 11 percent of the world economy.
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144
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Moving Saudi Arabia’s economy beyond oil

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Abstract in English: 
After a surge in prosperity over the past decade fueled by rising oil prices, Saudi Arabia’s economy is at an inflection point. We see a real opportunity for the country to inject new dynamism into its economy through a productivity- and investment-led transformation that could help ensure future growth, employment, and prosperity. In a new McKinsey Global Institute report, Saudi Arabia beyond oil: The investment and productivity transformation, we discuss how the country has significant opportunities to transform its economy to become more sustainable and less dependent on oil. Among our findings:

- The oil price boom from 2003 to 2013 fueled rising prosperity in Saudi Arabia, which became the world’s 19th-largest economy. GDP doubled, household income rose by 75 percent, and 1.7 million jobs were created, including jobs for a growing number of Saudi women. The government invested heavily in education, health, and infrastructure and built up reserves amounting to almost 100 percent of GDP in 2014.
- The country can no longer rely on oil revenue and public spending for growth, in the face of a changing global energy market and a demographic transition that will significantly increase the number of working-age Saudis by 2030. The current labor participation rate is 41 percent, and productivity growth of 0.8 percent annually from 2003 to 2013 trailed many emerging economies.
- Our model integrating Saudi Arabia’s economic, labor-market, and fiscal perspectives shows that even if the country responds to these challenging conditions with policy changes such as a budget freeze or immigration curbs, unemployment will rise rapidly, household income will fall, and the fiscal position of the national government will deteriorate sharply.
- However, a productivity-led economic transformation could enable Saudi Arabia to double its GDP again and create as many as six million new jobs by 2030 (exhibit). We estimate this would require about $4 trillion in investment. Eight sectors—mining and metals, petrochemicals, manufacturing, retail and wholesale trade, tourism and hospitality, healthcare, finance, and construction—have the potential to generate more than 60 percent of this growth opportunity.
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156
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For a European White Paper on the Security of Europe

Title Original Language: 
Télécharger
Abstract Original Language: 
EuroDéfense-France s’est interrogée sur l’intérêt, mais aussi les difficultés, les risques et les conditions à satisfaire pour réaliser un livre blanc européen sur la sécurité et la défense. Son travail ne préjuge en aucune manière des résultats d’un tel exercice, qui pourrait conduire à plus d'intégration, ou simplement à un partage gagnant-gagnant résultant d’une subsidiarité bien comprise et appliquée de manière intelligente.

Une synthèse des principales réflexions d’Eurodéfense-France est exposée ci-après. Elle est articulée autour de 4 questions:
- pourquoi a-t-on besoin d’un livre blanc européen sur la sécurité et la défense?
- quels sont les obstacles à résoudre et les opportunités à exploiter pour le faire?
- comment le réaliser: contenu et processus?
- comment l’exploiter à Bruxelles et dans les capitales?
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
EuroDéfense team has examined the interest, and also the difficulties, the risks and the conditions necessary to complete a European White Paper on security and defence. In no way does this work prejudge the results of an exercise like this which might lead to greater integration or simply to win-win sharing resulting from subsidiarity that is fully understand and implemented intelligently. A summary of the main ideas is set out in four questions:
- Why do we need a European White Paper on security and defence?
- What obstacles have to be overcome and which opportunities can be used to do so?
- How should it be achieved: content and procedure?
- How could it be used in Brussels and in the Member States?
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20
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Recommendations to avoid a strategic downgrading of Europe in the field of Combat Aviation

Title Original Language: 
Recommandations pour éviter un déclassement stratégique de l’Europe dans le domaine de L’Aviation de combat
Abstract Original Language: 
L’Académie de l’air et de l’espace (AAE), observant, au travers des nombreux exemples récents, qu’aucun conflit ne peut désormais plus se passer d’une aviation de combat performante, considère que l’Europe court le risque de perdre l’avance et l’indépendance de sa puissance aérienne alors que l’industrie d’aviation de combat est le moteur de la haute technologie et des emplois de haut niveau.
Comment faire pour éviter cette mort annoncée face à une concurrence internationale de plus en plus vive ? Comment protéger la base industrielle solide qui existe encore aujourd’hui mais qui nécessite d’être entretenue par des projets concrets de démonstrateurs et de développements européens ?
Si l’Europe souhaite conserver son indépendance stratégique dans les systèmes aériens de défense et ainsi conserver son rang dans le monde multipolaire de demain, des décisions importantes doivent être prises et financées rapidement.
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, November 16, 2013
Abstract in English: 
The Air and Space Academy having noted, through a study of the many recent examples, that air warfare scenarios without advanced combat aircraft are no longer feasible, considers that Europe is running the risk of losing its advanced air power independence, in spite of the fact that the combat aircraft industry is a driving force for advanced technologies and qualified employment.
How to avoid this imminent demise, faced with stiffer and stiffer international competition? How to protect the strong industrial base which still exists today but which must be maintained through concrete demonstrators and European development
programmes?
If Europe wishes to secure its future strategic air power independence and thus maintain its place in the newly emerging multipolar world, urgent action must be decided on and funded.
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13
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The Future of FinTech: A Paradigm Shift in Small Business Finance

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, October 26, 2015
Abstract in English: 
Small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) are often cited as the major driver of economies and a force in job creation, but they still have difficulty securing proper financing to prosper.
The global financial crisis of 2007-2008, coupled with higher regulation and capital costs for loans to SMEs, has made it even more difficult for SMEs to secure financing. However, the financial crisis has also created a plethora of disruptors in the FinTech area (“FinTech”, a contraction of “finance” and “technology”, is defined as the use of technology and innovative business models in financial services) who, with their innovative ways to originate, assess credit risk and fund SME loans, have provided alternative ways for SMEs to secure funding for their growth.
Over the last year, the Global Agenda Council on the Future of Financing & Capital, formed of industry leaders, academics, finance ministers and central bankers, has tackled the question of the lack of financing for SMEs, although ample cash is ready to be deployed.
This report synthesizes the authors’ efforts to take stock of what the finance industry has provided to date and how the FinTech industry has taken over some of the funding with its innovative business models and products.
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36
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Finland 2020 – From thought to action

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, August 6, 2010
Abstract in English: 
The Growth Initiative working group, a working group seeking to strengthen long-term economic growth, proposes measures to boost productivity growth in Finland in the 2010s. In the long term, beyond the current economic cycle, growth in productivity will be the only driver of the nation’s average income growth or GDP per capita. In the short term, improving the employment rate is also important.
The Growth Initiative working group’s final report begins by providing a brief introduction to issues vital to productivity growth. It then presents the working group’s policy recommendations, divided under the following ten headings: 1) Science and innovation policy, 2) Education policy, 3) Life phase policy, 4) Competition policy, 5) Enterprise policy, 6) Public sector operating policy, 7) Public sector information system policy, 8) Public sector procurement policy and the general availability of publicly collected information, 9) Broadband network and intelligent transport policy and 10) Transport infrastructure policy.
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42
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