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Politics

Renew Europe

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, January 19, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The “New Concept for Europe” initiative aims to inspire shared and positive aspirations for the future, to help Europe sustain its wellbeing and address the disruptive forces reshaping the world, within and beyond European borders. Based on the values and hopes of Europe’s next generation, it provides a starting point to develop a vision and practical ideas to move forward in addressing these potentially destabilizing forces and assuming a global leadership role.
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40
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Europe’s Growing Muslim Population

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
Abstract in English: 
In recent years, Europe has experienced a record influx of asylum seekers fleeing conflicts in Syria and other predominantly Muslim countries. This wave of Muslim migrants has prompted debate about immigration and security policies in numerous countries and has raised questions about the current and future number of Muslims in Europe.
To see how the size of Europe’s Muslim population may change in the coming decades, Pew Research Center has modeled three scenarios that vary depending on future levels of migration. These are not efforts to predict what will happen in the future, but rather a set of projections about what could happen under different circumstances.
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59
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Shaping the Future of Geopolitics

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Monday, November 20, 2017
Abstract in English: 
In today’s turbulent world, where governments and international organisations are increasingly faced with more uncertainty and volatility, this year’s event will zoom into emerging challenges and opportunities relevant to the European Union, highlighting the importance of strategic foresight and anticipatory governance in policy- and decision-making.
Forward-looking approaches are all the more important in a world of ‘Geopolitical Recession’, where multilateralism and the rules-based international order are under pressure, and new actors and technologies have the potential to be real geostrategic game changers. Against this backdrop, how can Europe ensure that it holds its future in its own hands? What must it do to better prepare for an uncertain future and tackle new security challenges?
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92
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Strategic Foresight Primer

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, November 20, 2017
Abstract in English: 
We are living in an era of faster and fundamental changes, with uneven impacts on geographies and generations. The pace of social change and technology innovation is accelerating and outpacing governance systems: capitalism 5.0, a fourth Industrial revolution – and diplomacy 2.0 and Bretton Woods 1.0!
How can institutional innovation keep pace with technological advances and enable whole societies to flourish in an era of inevitable surprise and increasing social complexity?
Rather than relying on experts to forecast the numbers and predict what will happen next, the interaction of inertia and innovation creates the perfect cocktail for using an approach called strategic foresight.
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40
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Ideas and ideologies competing for China's political future

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, October 20, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Unlike any other Chinese leader since the beginning of the reform era, Xi Jinping has worked on crafting a unified national ideology with the aim to strengthen the ties between China’s citizens and the Communist Party of China (CCP). The Xi leadership tries to rally support around the “China Dream,” the vision of China as a global player, and it promotes the “China Path” as an alternative to market economies and liberal democracies.
Although partially successful, the propaganda offensive has so far not yielded the desired result: a broad-based societal consensus on China’s future course. A new publication by the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) shows widely differing views within Chinese society on China’s developmental model and its global role.
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96
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African futures: Horizon 2025

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, September 20, 2017
Abstract in English: 
If Sub-Saharan Africa’s future had to be encapsulated in a single word, it would be transformation. In recent years the continent has undergone significant economic, socio-political, and technological transformations, a process which is likely to accelerate over the coming decades. While it would be an overstatement to proclaim that the future will be African, there are strong indications that the global importance of the continent is set to rise – and not only as a source of risk factors spilling over from poverty and instability. By 2045, approximately a quarter of the world’s population will be African. Looking ahead, there is also the potential for Africa’s economic growth to outpace the global average. The expansion of foreign direct investment (FDI), which today already outstrips aid, could drive further integration of African countries in the world economy. The diversification of Africa’s relationship with external partners – which now not only include traditional Western partners such as the EU, but also Asian, Middle Eastern and Gulf countries – will also contribute to increasing Africa’s prominence in the global arena.
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84
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The Future of Europe Comparing Public and Elite Attitudes

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Publication date: 
Tuesday, June 20, 2017
Abstract in English: 
The European Union and its member states have faced almost a decade of political tumult. If the EU is to move beyond crisis management towards political and economic renewal, a prerequisite is to understand better the foundation of public and ‘elite’ attitudes to the EU, and where these align and diverge.
This paper is based on a unique survey conducted between December 2016 and February 2017 in 10 countries that polled two groups: a representative sample of 10,000 members of the public; and a sample of over 1,800 of Europe’s ‘elite’, individuals in positions of influence from politics, the media, business and civil society at local, regional, national and European levels.
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48
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Meeting Security Challenges in a Disordered World

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, June 6, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Today the world faces a volatile convergence of instability, state weakness, and conflict. Lethal civil conflicts rage in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Libya, and South Sudan, stoking regional rivalries, offering safe havens to violent extremist groups, and triggering immense and unprecedented humanitarian crises. Even in regions and states where overt conflict is absent, such as West Africa or Central America, institutional and economic weakness creates unstable conditions that may enflame low level shocks or simmering criminal activity. At times resolution of these conditions may prove elusive and intervention fruitless; however, sometimes security challenges emerging in these environments require immediate and direct response.

The United States must be prepared to operate in a range of complex environments to meet a range of security challenges and threats, such as humanitarian emergencies, terrorism and violent extremism, great power aggression, health security crises, and international criminal violence. This study focuses on these five functional security imperatives and illustrates each imperative through regionally or subnationally defined operating environments. In each case, the selected security imperative must be addressed in the near term to help meet other U.S. objectives. The goal of the case studies is to characterize the operating environment, identify key tasks and responsibilities to address the security imperative, and develop a set of tools and policy recommendations for operating in those specific environments.
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130
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L’Europe dont nous avons besoin

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, March 25, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Les Européens ont collectivement réussi à faire face à la crise financière des dernières années. Cet épisode majeur a néanmoins laissé de profondes traces. Dans ce contexte de rétablissement progressif, la construction européenne semble à présent particulièrement menacée par une double contestation. Externe, avec l’élection d’un président des États-Unis pourfendeur du projet européen et avec la politique expansionniste menée par Moscou. Interne, avec la progression continue de l’euroscepticisme, les divisions sur les questions migratoires et le départ programmé du Royaume-Uni.
Soixante ans après la signature du Traité de Rome, l’Europe souffre de ses désaccords et de l’absence d’un projet commun affirmé par ses États membres.
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182
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White Paper on the future of Europe

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, March 1, 2017
Abstract in English: 
As we prepare to mark the 60th anniversary of the EU, we look back on a peace spanning seven decades and on an enlarged Union of 500 million citizens living in freedom in one of the world's most prosperous economies. At the same time, the EU has to look forward at how it will carve a vision for its own future at 27. The White Paper sets out the main challenges and opportunities for Europe in the coming decade. It presents five scenarios for how the Union could evolve by 2025 depending on how it chooses to respond.
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32
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