Research

The report Future of cohesion policy examines the main issues of debate around the cohesion policy in order to set up the political framework of discussion. Methodologically, this first report is based on an analysis of past debates, predominantly in regional EU fora. Desk-based research was supplemented by thematic discussions with other EU institutions, experts and key stakeholders in the scope of a seminar. Furthermore this study series on the Future of cohesion policy should provide a new impetus to the work of the Committee of the Regions and its members in the policy debates on the efficiency and effectiveness of Cohesion Policy from the perspective of local and regional authorities as well as the main topic of the research: The Cohesion Policy beyond 2020.

This report of the Expert Group on integrated strategic foresight modelling aims to provide advice on how to develop a modelling tool that can integrate knowledge and data from forward-looking activities like foresight, in a transdisciplinary manner that could be used by policymakers. Forward-looking activities have the potential to explore issues via a systems-thinking approach. Integrating the available knowledge into such a system approach requires the development of integrated foresight methods. Such methods can support the Commission in its efforts to enhance the quality of evidence-based policymaking. These methods can proactively identify future policy areas and develop an inclusive agenda for research and innovation that reflects changing societal needs and aspirations. The report considers the current foresight structures employed in the Commission and related institutions, and reviews current ideas about foresight processes for policy development. Concurrent Design Foresight is proposed as a concept that offers the necessary breadth of approach, the ability to allow for conflicting interests and opinions, and the ability to react quickly and in response to the needs of policy development. The expert group concludes that policymakers would benefit from a platform that supports Concurrent Design Foresight, enabling real-time interaction with stakeholders through both non-numerical and numerical modelling. The expert group therefore recommends that the Commission develop such a platform

Europe needs improved competitiveness to escape the current economic malaise, so it might seem surprising that there is no common European definition of competitiveness, and no consensus on how to consistently measure it.

To help address this situation, this Blueprint provides an inventory and an assessment of the data related to the measurement of competitiveness in Europe. It is intended as a handbook for researchers interested in measuring competiveness, and for policymakers interested in new and better measures of competitiveness.

MAPCOMPETE has been designed to provide an assessment of data opportunities and requirements for the comparative analysis of competitiveness in European countries at the macro and the micro level.

At a time when the new European Commission announced that it will concentrate on bold initiatives, it is important to recall that any policy decision has complex ramifications. Indeed, an increasing number of decisions affect several policy portfolios, and they need to take into account an increasing number of parameters, like geopolitics, economics, finance, security, health, environment, climate change, sociology, urbanisation, ageing society, and integrate fundamental European social values such gender equality and ethics. In addition, the technological breakthroughs are accelerating as never be-fore in history and social innovation (e.g. social media) augments the speed of information gathering and dissemination.
Because societies become ever more complex, collaborative long-term anticipation must replace the "silo" thinking habits and the short-termism that has characterised many aspects of policy-making in Europe.
Foreseeing is not sufficient anymore because it is only a tactical extrapolation of current trends; it is the future of the past. Foresighting however is strategic because it is based on more disruptive views; it is about the future of the future.

The Strategic Foresight Analysis (SFA) identified five themes: Political, Human, Technology, Economics/Resources and Environment. Under these themes 15 trends were identified that are expected to shape the future security environment out to 2030 and beyond. From these 15 trends, one trend was analysed in more depth - Demographics.

Project PREDICT (Projections and Relevant Effects of Demographic Implications, Changes, and Trends), was launched at the end of 2013 as a follow-up study to the SFA. Building on long-term cooperation between ACT and the University of Bologna (Italy), the PREDICT project also involved the active participation of the University of Warwick (UK), Sabanci University (Turkey), Johns Hopkins University – SAIS (US/Italy) and the Bruno Kessler Foundation (Italy).

SFA was designed as an iterative process and one which NATO intends to update regularly to provide NATO, national leaders and defence planners with a perspective of the challenges facing the Alliance in the decades to come. Within this framework, the PREDICT goal has been to further develop the research of the “human theme”, focusing on human demographics as the main forecasting variable employed to build different scenarios for NATO in 2035. PREDICT provides an analysis of demographic trends such as population growth, aging, and population composition all of which play a fundamental role in the current and foreseeable shifting distribution of international power. The report also provides security challenges which largely depend on the broader socio-political context in which demographic trends interact with economic, environmental, energy, health and technological trends.

Futurium is a small concrete attempt to respond to the growing demand for citizen participation in policy making. Its structured approach to content co-creation and synthesis allows streamlining otherwise expensive traditional foresight processes.
The Futurium is an open source project, free for download by any public administration or private organisation. It is work in progress. Everyone can contribute to its further improvement and development or use it to support specific foresight and policy making needs.

This study brings together work in progress on a long-term project to identify and analyse the 'cost of non-Europe' in a number of policy fields. This concept, first pioneered by the European Parliament in the 1980s, is used here to quantify the potential efficiency gains in today's European economy from pursuing a series of policy initiatives recently advocated by Parliament - from a wider and deeper digital single market to better coordinated national and European policies for defence and development. The benefits may be measured principally in additional GDP generated or a more rational use of public resources. The latest analysis suggests that the European economy could be boosted by almost 1.6 trillion euro per year - or 12 per cent of EU-28 GDP (2014) - by such measures over time. The study is intended as a contribution to the on-going discussion about the European Union’s policy priorities over the current five-year institutional cycle, from 2014 to 2019.

Built on the previous reports drawn up under the ESPAS project to date, this study seeks to map more comprehensively the five major trends that are likely to shape the future and will need to be taken into account by the Union as it defines coherent strategic options for the next governance cycle. They include:
- A richer and older human race characterised by an expanding global middle class and greater inequalities
- A more vulnerable process of globalisation led by and economic G3
- A transformative industrial and technological revolution
- A growing nexus of climate change, energy and the competition for resources
- Changing power, increased interdependence and fragile multilateralism

Territorial foresight is a structured set of participatory vision building and strategic planning activities that allow regions to think, consider, debate and shape the medium to long-term future of their regions, provinces or cities. Many of the key process elements of foresight are widely used in strategic planning – the formation of expert panels, the use of socio-economic and environmental data consultation, brainstorming, trend and extrapolation and the setting of strategic goals. Foresight, unlike most approaches to strategic planning, deals with long-term prospects, and draws upon the views of multiple stakeholders.
This report analyses the interactions between European strategies and policies, and the activities of the analysed territorial foresights, in order to assess the potential opportunity to create a territorial foresight network or platform at the European level.

As strategic territories for the future of countries and continents, cities and urban or rurban regions appear to be in the front line as areas of tension and as agents of intervention concerning the major challenges facing the planet. Our so-called "welfare" societies in Europe cannot escape these global processes. Initially, this report will attempt to establish a diagnosis of urban realities in Europe by exposing certain methodological difficulties and issues. In part two, it will address the theme of integrated strategies for the sustainable development of territories and ways of regulating them within cities and rurban regions. The third part will cover the role of the European Union and Member States in building the urban field. Finally, it will discuss the perspectives opened by the Europe 2020 strategy for cities and rurban regions, as well as some proposals.