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At the Center of Africa’s Transformation: Strategy for 2013–2022

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, November 1, 2013
Abstract in English: 
Africa is now the world’s second fastest-growing continent. In this decade of seismic shifts in the global economy, Africa has defied the pessimists, accelerating its economic pulse and seeing significant improvements in its Human Development Indicators. But these positive developments have been tempered by a crisis in jobs, youth unemployment and growing inequality. These are now the challenges. Growth must bring jobs and opportunities for all. That will happen if growth is sustained and leads to the structural change and economic transformation that will enable the continent to join global value chains. It will do this by closing the infrastructure gap, speeding up economic integration, dealing with conflicts old and new, and developing human capital.
This is what makes the next decade so decisive. This is what makes this new Bank Strategy for 2013–2022 so vital.
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44
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A Post-Sanctions Iran and the Eurasian Energy Architecture

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, October 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
The removal of international sanctions on Iran carries the potential to radically restructure the Eurasian energy architecture
and, as a consequence, reshape Eurasian geopolitics. The Euro-Atlantic community’s interests will be most impacted by Iran’s choice of export destinations for its natural gas delivered by pipeline. By defining the pattern of major energy flows through long-term supply contracts and costly pipeline infrastructure investment, the pattern of Iran’s piped gas exports in the immediate post-sanctions period will influence the development of both China’s “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative and the European
Union’s “Eastern Neighborhood” policy.
This report estimates Iran, within five years, will likely have 24.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas available for annual piped gas exports beyond its current supply commitments.
Not enough to supply all major markets, Tehran will face a crucial geopolitical choice for the destination of its piped exports. Iran will be able to export piped gas to two of the following three markets: European Union (EU)/ Turkey via the Southern Gas Corridor centering on the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), India via an Iran-Oman-India pipeline, or China via either Turkmenistan or Pakistan.
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32
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Global Transitions and Asia 2060: Climate, Political-Economy, and Identity

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Abstract in English: 
The purpose of this study is to embed a long-term futures-thinking approach in current policy discussions on the future of Asia in academic, governmental, and business arenas. The objective is to explore the future of Asia given current conditions on the planet, expressed in three subthemes: 1) Asia at the carbon and energy crossroads, 2) Asia and new models of economy and governance – toward an Asian Union, and 3) Asian identity in transition and transformation.
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54
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Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2030

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, November 13, 2009
Abstract in English: 
Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2030 (ES-2030) approved by decree N°1715-r of the Government of the Russian Federation dated 13 November 2009. The Strategy provides increase in the time horizon for strategic planning of the Russian energy sector until 2030 in accordance with new objectives and priorities of the country. The Strategy includes the following:
- the current results of the Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2020 realization and goods and objectives of the Strategy;
- the main trends and forecasts of the country socio-economic development, and of the interaction between the economy and energy sector;
- the prospects of demand for Russia’s energy;
- the main provisions of the state energy policy and its most important elements;
- the development prospects of the Russian fuel and energy complex;
- the expected results and implementation system of the Strategy.

The Strategy focuses on the principles, strategic guidelines, the main components and mechanisms of the state energy policy implementation. The quantitative parameters of the economy and energy development are subject to verification during the implementation of the measures specified by the Strategy. The publication is intended for energy companies, research, consulting and educational organizations, state legislative and executive authorities, a wide range of experts in the field of energy and the economy of the Russian Federation.
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174
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Trends and projections in Europe 2013 – Tracking progress towards Europe's climate and energy targets until 2020

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, October 4, 2013
Abstract in English: 
This report provide an assessment of the progress of the EU and European countries towards achieving their climate mitigation and energy policy objectives. These targets include international commitments pursuant the KP and the EU 2020 commitment to reduce by 20 % greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to 1990, to create 20 % of energy consumption from renewables and to increase energy efficiency by 20 %. The assessment is based on GHG data for the period 2008–2012, including recent estimates of proxy 2012 GHG emissions, GHG projections until 2020 submitted by Member States in 2013, as well as energy statistics until 2011.
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148
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Natural Resources in 2020, 2030, and 2040: Implications for the United States

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, July 25, 2013
Abstract in English: 
Based on the general contention that the world is entering an intensified period of resource stress, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) asked Chatham House in July 2011 to conduct research to identify the most important natural resource trends affecting US national security over a 2020, 2030, and 2040 time horizon. The requested analysis covers water, fuel, food, and metals (also referred to as materials). The identified trends—which include patterns of demand, supply, availability, price levels, and price volatility—are shaped and influenced by emerging climate changes, evolving demographic patterns, increasing economic development, and human induced environmental degradation. The result is this report which considers how local and global availability of natural resources will affect US security interests in the medium term (to 2020) and long term (specifically 2030 and 2040). The 2020 date was selected to identify the most pressing policy relevant issues; 2030 was selected to support development of the NIC’s longer-range Global Trends series; and 2040 to support ongoing NIC projects exploring the national security impact of global food, water, and energy security.

The major assumption underpinning this analysis is that mounting prosperity in both the developed and the developing world will continue to drive increased consumer demand for key resources. At the same time, constraints in energy, water, and other critical natural resources and infrastructure, together with socio-economic shifts, will bring new and hard-to-manage instabilities. There will be an increasing risk of discontinuous and systemic shocks to 2040 as a consequence of these factors.

This report identifies potential natural resource stresses (in terms of aggregate availability, absolute prices, or rapid price changes) and analyzes their likely impact on the United States and states/regions of interest to the United States. The report also explores how these stresses will interact with one another and other pre-existing conditions, including poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions. Summary tables (Annex A) provide an overview of key resource-related threats and their potential impact on the United States and other major economies. The risk assessments are based on a continuation of today's practices and trends; alternate policy choices, market actions, and technology developments will likely change future risk assessments.
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112
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The Arctic, Ocean for the Future for the security and the strategic autonomy of the EU

Title Original Language: 
L’arctique, océan d’avenir pour la sécurité et l’autonomie stratégique de l’Union européenne
Abstract Original Language: 
25 millions de kilomètres carrés, du pétrole, du gaz et de très nombreuses autres ressources minérales situées dans une zone qui pourrait être au cœur du trafic maritime mondial dans quelques décennies, l’Arctique est une zone critique de la géopolitique mondiale du 21e siècle. Dès lors, quelle place et quelle stratégie pour l’Union européenne dans cet espace ? Le rapport disponible ci-dessous a vocation à établir une description de la situation géostratégique et des grands enjeux de cette région ainsi qu’à mettre en perspective le rôle que l’Union européenne pourrait jouer dans les prochaines années.
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, September 1, 2014
Abstract in English: 
During the last decades, global interest for the Arctic, an area of 25 million square km of which 14 million for the Arctic ocean, increased due to the climate change which led to the melting of the ice cap and the thawing of the permafrost. The attention of the global players is attracted not only by energy and natural resources but also by new maritime routes. This creates new environmental challenges and leads to potentially dramatic changes to international trade, which will contribute to the globalization of this area. This evolution is one of the reasons for the growing interest of the large global players for the governance of this area, in the first place of which the People’s Republic of China, India or Singapore.
These changes went not unnoticed by the EU, which, as early as 2002 under the Danish presidency of the Council, showed its intent to be a global actor by introducing the concept of “Arctic window” into its Nordic dimension. As reaffirmed in a resolution of the European parliament in March 2014, this concern was endorsed last May by the foreign affairs Council, which considered that Europe should reinforce its contribution to the Arctic cooperation. It pleads “for an active commitment of the EU with its Arctic partners in view of meeting the challenges of sustainable growth, in a prudent and reasonable way”.
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6
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Agricultural Outlook, 2013-2022

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, October 1, 2013
Abstract in English: 
The nineteenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook, and the ninth prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), provides projections to 2022 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. Notable in the 2013 report is the inclusion of cotton for the first time and a special feature on China.

Higher costs and strong demand are expected to keep commodity prices well above historical averages with a high risk of price volatility given tight stocks, a changeable policy environment and increasing weather-related production risks. China is projected to maintain its self-sufficiency in certain key food commodities while increasing its trade and integration in world agricultural markets.
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119
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World Oil Outlook 2014

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Abstract in English: 
The OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO) has been published annually since 2007. It presents projections for the medium-term (to 2019) and long-term (this year extended to 2040) for oil demand and supply. The main conclusions of the WOO 2014 are that oil will continue to play a major part in satisfying world energy needs, as the global economy more than doubles in size, population grows, prosperity expands everywhere, and despite a strong reduction in energy intensity. It also illustrates the growing significance of developing countries in the energy landscape and the progressive shift towards Asia as its gravity centre. Resources are amply sufficient to meet future oil needs. The WOO also emphasizes the many uncertainties associated with the global economy and non-OPEC supply.
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396
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World Energy Investment Outlook

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, October 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
Questions about the reliability, affordability and sustainability of our energy future often boil down to questions about investment. But are investors ready to commit capital in a fast-changing energy world? This special report in the World Energy Outlook series takes up this question in a full and comprehensive update of the energy investment picture to 2035 – a first full update since the 2003 World Energy Investment Outlook. With benchmark data on past investment trends and updated projections for investment at regional and global level, the report provides insights into:
- The structure of ownership and models for financing investment in different parts of the energy sector.
- The continued importance of oil investment in the Middle East to meet demand, and the consequences of delay in such investment.
- The dynamics and costs of LNG investment and how this can shape the future of global gas supply.
- Where investment in the power sector might fall short of what is required, with important findings on the reliability of electricity supply in Europe and in India.
- The outlook for investment in low-carbon technologies, including renewables, and energy efficiency and the barriers to their realisation.
- How global investment and financing requirements change if governments take stronger action to address climate change.
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190
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