Security

Security challenges in East Asia are becoming acute. North Korea is developing a missile-deliverable nuclear weapon, and the long-term stability of the Pyongyang regime is questionable. Taiwan, which Beijing claims as part of Chinese territory, is about to have a presidential election in which a candidate from a pro-independence party is the front-runner. China has also become increasingly assertive in its territorial disputes with Japan and several Southeast Asian countries. Meanwhile, Japan's leaders are attempting to redefine the role Japan plays in regional security affairs. Indeed, Japan's legislature recently enacted revisions to the country's national security laws that would loosen limitations on the use of Japan's armed forces, and the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has pledged to increase defense spending

An annual collection of wide-ranging essays by CSIS experts, 2016 Global Forecast discusses the issues that will matter most to America and the world’s security and prosperity in the year ahead.

United Nations Security Council Resolution 1540 (2004) calls on states to prevent criminals, militant groups and other non-state actors from acquiring or using weapons of mass destruction. This monograph is based on papers that were presented and discussed at a meeting of former members of the 1540 Committee’s group of experts. The meeting took place in Cape Town, South Africa in May 2015, and was organised by the ISS in cooperation with the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs and using funds from voluntary contributions by the governments of the Republic of Korea and the United States of America. The monograph is a timely assessment towards the 2016 Comprehensive Review of the implementation of Resolution 1540. It covers a broad spectrum of topics and recommends better ways to combat the threat of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. The reader is invited to explore and think critically about the international community’s efforts in this regard.

This study starts with two essays laying the groundwork for the very idea of futures studies and future scenario forecasting. The first, by renowned futurist from the University of Hawaii, Professor James Allen Dator, introduces the discipline. In the second, respected futurist and business strategist Peter Schwartz describes the scenario planning context, process and application for business and policymakers.

This study aims to foster a dialogue about the future of logistics by describing a number of different scenarios, or pictures of the world, in 2050.

The overall risk of food insecurity in many countries of strategic importance to the United States will increase during the next 10 years because of production, transport, and market disruptions to local food availability, declining purchasing power, and counterproductive government policies. Demographic shifts and constraints on key inputs will compound this risk. In some countries, declining food security will almost certainly contribute to social disruptions or large-scale political instability or conflict, amplifying global concerns about the availability of food.

At a time when the new European Commission announced that it will concentrate on bold initiatives, it is important to recall that any policy decision has complex ramifications. Indeed, an increasing number of decisions affect several policy portfolios, and they need to take into account an increasing number of parameters, like geopolitics, economics, finance, security, health, environment, climate change, sociology, urbanisation, ageing society, and integrate fundamental European social values such gender equality and ethics. In addition, the technological breakthroughs are accelerating as never be-fore in history and social innovation (e.g. social media) augments the speed of information gathering and dissemination.
Because societies become ever more complex, collaborative long-term anticipation must replace the "silo" thinking habits and the short-termism that has characterised many aspects of policy-making in Europe.
Foreseeing is not sufficient anymore because it is only a tactical extrapolation of current trends; it is the future of the past. Foresighting however is strategic because it is based on more disruptive views; it is about the future of the future.

The challenge of resilience in a globalised world discusses the concept of resilience from different perspectives and the role of science in the continuous process of building a resilient, stable, competitive and prosperous Europe.

Resilience is a fundamental prerequisite for Europe as the largest integrated economic area in the world and has an important social dimension which requires the active cooperation of all stakeholders; citizens, the private sector, governments and NGOs included.

Against the background of the ongoing consultation exercise on developing an EU global strategy, this book presents and contextualises the landmark documents that have successively codified the Union’s external action objectives.
The volume explores the evolution of the European Security Strategy (or Strategies, considering the two successive versions of June and December 2003). It then dwells upon the 2008 report on the implementation of the strategy and, finally, briefly illustrates the basis on which the current HR/VP released her report on the ‘The European Union in a changing global environment’ in June 2015 and is now preparing for the new strategy, due out next year.

Along with the relevant EU documents, the book also presents the two texts that are most likely to represent a key point of reference for the forthcoming ‘global’ strategy, namely NATO’s current Strategic Concept, dating back to 2010, and the latest US National Security Strategy, released earlier this year by the Obama administration.

In a period of budget austerity and emerging threats, defense policymakers must contend with a range of competing requirements. And while current conflicts take precedence, the Defense Department must also focus on developing the force of the future. To do so, it is first necessary to consider the nature of conflict and types of missions the U.S. military may face in the coming decades. By assessing the key components, or drivers, of the future security environment (FSE), an unknowable future becomes a bit clearer. This report provides such an assessment. Drawing on qualitative data such as national security and foreign policy literature, Defense Department strategy and operational documents, and interviews with leading academics and practitioners, this study identifies and examines the drivers of the FSE in order to guide analysis and decisionmaking.

In 2030, will the Internet and related information and communications technologies (ICT) continue to drive global innovation and prosperity? Or, will that bright promise be swamped by an unstable and insecure Internet, so overwhelmed by non-stop attacks that it has become an increasing drag on economic growth? The answers, as far as we can predict, are not promising and mean the difference in tens of trillions of dollars in global economic growth over the next fifteen years.
So far, cyberspace has been safe enough, secure enough, and resilient enough for the past decades to re-invent nearly every industry, create a ’hyperconnected world,’ and transform the global economy.