Security

The Global Risks Report 2016 features perspectives from nearly 750 experts on the perceived impact and likelihood of 29 prevalent global risks over a 10-year timeframe. The risks are divided into five categories: economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological.

The report also examines the interconnections among the risks, and through that analysis explores three areas where global risks have the greatest potential to impact society. These are the concept of the “(dis)empowered citizen”, the impact of climate change on food security, and the potential of pandemics to threaten social cohesion.

The report also takes an in-depth look at the how the global security landscape could evolve in the future; sharing the outcomes of a year-long study to examine current trends and possible driving forces for the future of international security.

Two major goals have driven Vladimir Putin’s presidency: a controlling state and a prosperous economy. His central dilemma has been to manage the tension between those objectives. He has had to consider how Russia could reap prosperity through globalization while maintaining domestic control and great-power autonomy.
To achieve that end, Russia evolved a strategy of ‘sovereign globalization’. Initially, this involved managing the terms of economic engagement to limit external influence by reducing sovereign debt, circumscribing foreign ownership rights and maximizing the balance of benefits over obligations in global economic governance.
As Russia’s confidence grew, it sought to exert broader political influence by economic means, using its position as the major market of the former Soviet Union and dominant energy supplier to Europe.
A series of adverse developments undermined that strategy: the decline of energy-export-led growth, global energy market developments and EU responses to Russian policy. Those changes led to a sharp and unfavourable shift in the balance between opportunity and risk in Russia’s engagement with the global economy.
The unravelling of Russia’s strategy propelled events in Ukraine and triggered the present crisis in Russia–West relations. As a consequence, Russia’s distorted political economy is now under strain; its regional influence is waning; and Western sanctions are depriving it of goods, capital and technology.
Russia’s experiment with ‘sovereign globalization’ was a highly ambitious attempt to harness interdependence to the pursuit of power-political ends. For the first time, Russia used economic relations – its traditional weakness – as a source of strength. The failure of that strategy encourages pessimism about Russia’s prospects but optimism about globalization.
- See more at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/russias-sovereign-globalization-rise-fall-and-future#sthash.katIyU1J.dpuf

New Perspectives in Foreign Policy is published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) to provide a forum for young professionals to debate issues of importance in foreign policy. Though New Perspectives seeks to bring new voices into the dialogue, it does not endorse specific opinions or policy prescriptions. As such, the views expressed herein are solely those of the authors and contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editorial Board, CSIS, or the CSIS Board of Trustees.

Horizon 2020 has a single overarching objective: the achievement of scientific, technological and societal impact based on excellent research and innovation projects. It aims to achieve economic impact by supporting industrial competitiveness, economic growth and job creation. It aims to achieve societal impact by developing the means to respond effectively, quickly and efficiently to the urgent societal challenges (climate change, loss of biodiversity, ageing, etc.) Europe is faced with.

This brochure, which presents examples of research and innovation projects funded through past EU programmes and constitutes a record of impact, shows that the ambitious goals set for Horizon 2020 are fully justified.

From 2014 to 2020, Horizon 2020 brings all EU research and innovation funding together under a single programme with three key objectives:

- Excellent Science: Strengthening the EU’s position as world leader in science and attracting the best talents to work together across Europe;
- Competitive Industries: Strengthening industrial leadership in innovation to get Europe back on the path to growth and job creation;
- Better Society: Innovating to tackle societal challenges shared by all Europeans, across seven key themes: Health, demographic change and well-being; Food security, sustainable agriculture, marine and maritime and inland water research and the bio-economy; Secure, clean and efficient energy; Smart, green and integrated transport; Climate action, environment, resource efficiency and raw materials; Europe in a changing world -inclusive, innovative and reflective societies; and Secure societies – protecting the freedom and security of Europe and its citizens

“Global System on the Brink: Pathways toward a New Normal” is a joint study by the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Initiative and the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO). Work on this joint assessment of global trends began before the onset of the recent crisis in US-Russian relations, but is more relevant than ever today as we seek to avoid a greater conflict and achieve a new normal of cooperation between Russia and the West. In keeping with previous forecasting works published by the Atlantic Council and the IMEMO, the study examines current trends and potential scenarios for global developments over the next twenty years.

Despite the rapid globalization of the past few decades, which promised cooperation and integration, the potential for major state conflict is on the rise due to deep fragmentation within and between societies. The old confrontation between capitalism and communism has given way to conflicts of moral values with nationalist, religious, and historical-psychological overtones. The worst outcome would be the emergence of a new bipolarity, pitting a group of states centered around China and Russia against the United States and some European and Asian allies. However serious the current situation, the study emphasizes the opportunities for narrowing differences.

The purpose of – and the motivation be-hind – this study is to move the debate on autonomy in weapons systems ahead by introducing some more conceptual clarity and definitional rigor. To that end, we offer a new instrument for conducting a multidimensional autonomy risk assessment (MARA) in weapons systems. By quantifying and computing key descriptive characteristics (“vectors”) of systems to gauge their autonomous and military capabilities, the instrument can be used to generate a comprehensive overview over weapons systems deployed currently and in the near future. This way, it can assist policy-makers in coming to an informed decision on the possible establishment of a politically defined maximum of autonomy in weapons systems.

The new threat landscape the transatlantic community faces means that NATO must adapt its strategy to remain relevant. While many transatlantic policymakers and thought leaders have called for a new strategy for NATO, few have outlined what that strategy should actually entail. This report proposes that NATO adopt a new strategy called "Stability Generation," built on the concept of ensuring stability in the NATO region and reducing the threat of significant conflicts in NATO's neighborhood.

To accomplish this, NATO must add resilience as a core task to its existing tasks of collective defense, crisis management, and cooperative security. NATO must also enhance capabilities in the East against conventional and hybrid conflicts, in the South against instability arising from conflicts and extremism in neighbor¬ing countries, and across the Alliance to decrease vulnerabilities and enhance resilience, particularly with respect to cybersecurity.

EuroDéfense team has examined the interest, and also the difficulties, the risks and the conditions necessary to complete a European White Paper on security and defence. In no way does this work prejudge the results of an exercise like this which might lead to greater integration or simply to win-win sharing resulting from subsidiarity that is fully understand and implemented intelligently. A summary of the main ideas is set out in four questions:
- Why do we need a European White Paper on security and defence?
- What obstacles have to be overcome and which opportunities can be used to do so?
- How should it be achieved: content and procedure?
- How could it be used in Brussels and in the Member States?

The Air and Space Academy (AAE) and the Association Aéronautique et Astronautique de France (French Aerospace Society, 3AF) endeavour to focus their attention and reflections on important issues linked to innovative development activities in air and space.
Today, for instance, technological progress has led to the design and manufacture of unmanned aircraft. In the military field, recent decades have witnessed the development and operational use of Unmanned Air Systems (UAS) or Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS) for Intelligence/Surveillance/Reconnaissance missions and even more recently, for weapon delivery. In the more recent civilian drone sector, the explosion of ideas has been impressive, with an exponential rise in the number of drone operators and missions. We now have the technological capacity to produce small RPAS that are cheap to buy and to run. This is inspiring a services market, often proposed by innovative young companies. The mayors of our cities and towns are purchasing aerial views of their area. Farmers can monitor their crops and define appropriate treatments. Infrastructure owners such as EDF, SNCF and GRT Gaz are envisaging using drones in an increasingly intensive way to inspect tracks, lines and bridges that are often difficult to access. For several years, television has been a major user of drones and now filmmakers are also starting to use these innovative systems.
This proliferation of drone applications may represent a potential hazard to people and goods and makes their integration into an already congested airspace very complicated.

The Air and Space Academy having noted, through a study of the many recent examples, that air warfare scenarios without advanced combat aircraft are no longer feasible, considers that Europe is running the risk of losing its advanced air power independence, in spite of the fact that the combat aircraft industry is a driving force for advanced technologies and qualified employment.
How to avoid this imminent demise, faced with stiffer and stiffer international competition? How to protect the strong industrial base which still exists today but which must be maintained through concrete demonstrators and European development
programmes?
If Europe wishes to secure its future strategic air power independence and thus maintain its place in the newly emerging multipolar world, urgent action must be decided on and funded.