Security

The world is becoming increasingly multipolar. States that were long thought of as developing or newly industrialized countries are now an influential force in shaping international policy in an interdependent world. They are economic motors and key regional players, active beyond their own regional boundaries. They also play an increasingly important role in international decision-making processes. They are confidently taking their place on the world stage, in international relations, and are assuming ever more responsibility for global issues. In our view they are more than just emerging economies. They are new players with a voice in the conduct of world affairs.

The big-data are a revolution. The exponential data growth determines a new way to use them. These are now capable of numerous reuses unrelated to their initial collection.

The approach advocated by this paper is not the so-called ‘economic peace’. Economic development is not a substitute for political rights. As an educated and entrepreneurial people, Palestinians are capable of creating a viable economy that would support a sovereign state unreliant on foreign aid.
The EU policy shift would have to entail effective engagement of Israelis and Palestinians to address each other’s security requirements in accordance with international standards. This includes addressing Israel’s occupation and its ‘layering’ of measures under the name of security that undermine Palestinian economic development. A crippled Palestinian economy does not make Israel safer, but it meanwhile diminishes Palestinian dignity and hope for the future.
Such a shift in policy on the part of the EU would better align Europe with its own ENP objectives, and would be a critical positive response to political factors at play in the Middle East. It would fill the void arising from the reduced US focus on Israel and Palestine. However, this policy shift would be enhanced if it were fortified with a degree of US acceptance – if not support.

The US military is at a crossroads. After a decade of war with nearly unlimited defence spending, the Pentagon must determine how to absorb nearly $500 billion in cuts over 10 years amid debate over how the ‘future force’ should be structured and equipped. The challenges of force planning for Pentagon strategists will only be exacerbated by an uncertain and challenging security environment combined with a war-weary public, debates over the United States’ role in the world and fears of its ‘retrenchment’.

During the last decades, global interest for the Arctic, an area of 25 million square km of which 14 million for the Arctic ocean, increased due to the climate change which led to the melting of the ice cap and the thawing of the permafrost. The attention of the global players is attracted not only by energy and natural resources but also by new maritime routes. This creates new environmental challenges and leads to potentially dramatic changes to international trade, which will contribute to the globalization of this area. This evolution is one of the reasons for the growing interest of the large global players for the governance of this area, in the first place of which the People’s Republic of China, India or Singapore.
These changes went not unnoticed by the EU, which, as early as 2002 under the Danish presidency of the Council, showed its intent to be a global actor by introducing the concept of “Arctic window” into its Nordic dimension. As reaffirmed in a resolution of the European parliament in March 2014, this concern was endorsed last May by the foreign affairs Council, which considered that Europe should reinforce its contribution to the Arctic cooperation. It pleads “for an active commitment of the EU with its Arctic partners in view of meeting the challenges of sustainable growth, in a prudent and reasonable way”.

This report outlines key driving factors for the evolution of serious and organised crime in the EU. The document describes these key drivers, their impact on serious and organised crime and the potential impact on individual crime areas and organised crime groups (OCGs). It does not claim to make definitive predictions or provide a complete picture of crime in the future, but rather aims to outline plausible developments and to encourage law enforcement authorities to consider and explore the potential evolution of serious and organised crime.

The report opens with a discussion of Europe's changing criminal landscape and the key drivers that will impact on serious and organised crime over the next decade. The key driving factors presented in this document were inspired by the Serious and Organised Crime Futures Forum held at Europol in March 2014. The Forum brought together experts from government, the private sector, think tanks and international organisations as well as a large number of law enforcement experts from various Member States and third states associated with Europol. In a two-step process, all participants first identified key driving factors in the environment. Law enforcement professionals then engaged in discussions to outline the potential impact of these factors on serious and organised crime. The report focuses on those key drivers with the most profound impact on serious and organised crime in the future. These fall within two categories, technology and socio-economic developments, and are each dis-cussed by focussing on their general impact and their impact on serious and organised crime specifically.

In addition to exploring potential developments in serious and organised crime, the report also provides a view on the future of law enforcement and how law enforcement authorities across the EU and on a global level may seek to counter and contain organised crime activities over the next decade.

Project 2020 is an initiative of the International Cyber Security Protection Alliance (ICSPA). Its aim is to anticipate the future of cybercrime, enabling governments, businesses and citizens to prepare themselves for the challenges and opportunities of the coming decade. It comprises a range of activities, including common threat reporting, scenario exercises, policy guidance and capacity building.

The scenarios in this document are not predictions of a single future. Rather, they are descriptions of a possible future, which focuses on the impact of cybercrime from the perspectives of an ordinary Internet user, a manufacturer, a communications service provider and a government. The events and developments described are designed to be plausible in some parts of the world, as opposed to inevitable in all. They take their inspiration from analysis of the current threat landscape, the expert opinion of ICSPA members and extensive horizon scanning, particularly of emerging technologies.

The emergence of the People’s Republic of China as an increasingly significant military power in the Western Pacific presents major implications for Japan, the U.S.-Japan alliance, and regional security. But a comprehensive assessment of the current and possible future impact of China’s military capabilities and foreign security policies on Tokyo and the alliance, along with a detailed examination of the capacity and willingness of both the United States and Japan to respond to this challenge, is missing from the current debate. Such an analysis is essential for Washington and Tokyo to better evaluate the best approaches for maintaining deterrence credibility and regional stability over the long term.

The Future of US Extended Deterrence in Asia to 2025, by Brent Scowcroft Center Senior Fellow Robert A. Manning, examines the past, present, and future of US extended deterrence in Asia and outlines how the United States, along with its allies and partners in the region, can counter China’s growing military and economic power. The report covers a number of future concerns for the US-South Korea alliance, the US-Japan alliance, and new threats to deterrence in the cyber and space domains.

The document is a contribution to a growing body of knowledge and is aimed at the defence community. It seeks to build on previous editions of Global Strategic Trends with a more accessible format. It has a greater focus on defence and security issues and expands on other subjects, including resources, and the resurgence of ideology. From a comprehensive review of trends, it draws out 3 key themes: how we will adapt to the reality of a shifting climate and breakneck technological innovation (see the Human Environment); the dominance of the West in international affairs will fade and global power will become more evenly distributed between the West and the rising powers in Asia (see the Dynamics of Global Power); and finally, as society and the distribution of global power changes, the challenges to defence and security will increase (see Evolving Defence and Security Challenges). It draws lessons from contemporary events to conclude that globalisation is a more volatile process than previously envisaged and that this volatility may leave globalised systems more vulnerable to strategic shock and systemic failure. It also draws out high level global defence and security implications.