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Security

European Space Programs and the Digital Challenge

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, November 15, 2017
Abstract in English: 
The progress made in space exploration and digital technology have long been dis-synchronized. This is no longer the case- space programs are now both an actor of the digital revolution, since most of the data are being communicated through satellites, and themselves revolutionized.
The point of this study is to understand the tremendous changes affecting this sector, through the inclusion of new technologies and new actors, and to outline a way for Europe to remain an independent and strong actor in the space exploration sector- which is key to remain a credible global power.
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138
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Deception operations

Abstract Original Language: 
Souvent assimilées à la ruse et aux stratagèmes, les opérations de déception sont une pratique de guerre à la fois ancienne et méconnue, tant au niveau stratégique que tactique ou opératif. Leurs principaux procédés sont la dissimulation, la simulation ou l'intoxication, qi toutes contribuent à tromper l'ennemi et lui faire croire à ne illusion qui doit causer sa perte. Malgré une efficacité maintes fois démontrée dans l'histoire, cette pratique ne va pas sans poser de dilemmes-d'ordre culturel et éthique mais aussi en matière d'allocation des ressources. Alors que progressent sans cesse dans les armées le développement des réseaux, la numérisation et l'intelligence artificielle, les nouvelles technologies semblent toutefois offrir un terrain fertile à un renouveau des opérations de déception. Bien employées, celles-ci permettraient de nuancer la fin du confort opératif prédit aux forces occidentales et d'éviter l'avènement d'un nouveau blocage tactique.
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, June 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Often associated with cunning and stratagems, deception operations are as old as warfare while frequently neglected, whether at the strategic, tactical or operational levels. Its main methods are concealment, simulation and intoxication, all of which help to deceive the enemy and make him believe in an illusion aimed at causing his loss. Despite its proven effectiveness, this practice is not without cultural, ethical as well as resource allocation dilemmas. Modern armed forces are witnessing the constant upgrading of information networks, digitization and the development of artificial intelligence. These new technologies seem to provide a fertile ground for a renewal of deception operations. If well used, the latter would help mitigate the "end of the operational comfort" (i.e. the end of the material, technological and strategic superiority allowing western powers to deploy their forces without encountering major hindrances nor strong resistance from the enemy) predicted to Western forces and prevent a new tactical blockage.
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60
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Europe and the Sahel-Maghreb Crisis

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Publication date: 
Friday, March 2, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This report analyses the reasons for European policy-makers coming to perceive the Sahel as a threat to Europe’s own security and stability. It starts by presenting the most recent developments in the Sahel and Maghreb regions in respect of the two most significant threats to European security and stability: trans-national jihadism and cross-border migration. The report provides in-depth analysis of a series of the most important factors that are driving the increases in jihadism and migration, including the persistence of state weakness in the Sahel, the collapse of the state in Libya and the failure of regional collaboration. Furthermore, the report analyses the most significant developments in the international community’s responses to the most recent conflicts and crises in the Sahel and Maghreb, including the foreign policies of France, which remains the single most important foreign actor in the Sahel, the European Union and Denmark. The report closes with a series of suggestions regarding how the European powers, especially Denmark, might adjust their policies in order to increase the likelihood of long-term peace and stability being generated in the region.
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64
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Building a Smart Partnership for the Fourth Industrial Revolution

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Publication date: 
Friday, April 27, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The emerging technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution offer unprecedented avenues to improve quality of life, advance society, and contribute to global economic growth. Yet along with greater prospects for human advancement and progress, advancements in these technologies have the potential to be dramatically disruptive, threatening existing assumptions around national security, rules for international cooperation, and a thriving global commerce. This report by the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and the Korea Institute for Advancement of Technology (KIAT) addresses emerging technologies in key areas of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and explores innovative ways by which the United States and the Republic of Korea can cooperate around advancements in artificial intelligence and robotics; biotechnology; and the Internet of Things.
Each chapter focuses on one of these scientific advancements, with two authors exploring the technology from the perspective of the United States and the Republic of Korea, respectively. Building off the work already underway in both countries, the authors of this report examine opportunities for continued growth and development in these key areas, offering concrete, distinct recommendations for increasing US-ROK cooperation around each technology as the world moves further into the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
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92
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The Global Risks Report 2018

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 17, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Last year’s Global Risks Report was published at a time of heightened global uncertainty and strengthening popular discontent with the existing political and economic order. The report called for “fundamental reforms to market capitalism” and a rebuilding of solidarity within and between countries. One year on, a global economic recovery is under way, offering new opportunities for progress that should not be squandered: the urgency of facing up to systemic challenges has, if anything, intensified amid proliferating indications of uncertainty, instability and fragility.
Humanity has become remarkably adept at understanding how to mitigate conventional risks that can be relatively easily isolated and managed with standard risk management approaches. But we are much less competent when it comes to dealing with complex risks in the interconnected systems that underpin our world, such as organizations, economies, societies and the environment. There are signs of strain in many of these systems: our accelerating pace of change is testing the absorptive capacities of institutions, communities and individuals. When risk cascades through a complex system, the danger is not of incremental damage but of “runaway collapse” or an abrupt transition to a new, suboptimal status quo.
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80
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Munich Security Report 2018: "To the Brink - and Back?"

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, February 16, 2018
Abstract in English: 
For international security, the year 2017 was marked – among others – by signs of a continued erosion of the so-called liberal international order and an increasingly unpredictable US foreign policy. Tensions in many parts of the world have been growing: the rhetoric between the US and North Korea has escalated, the rift in the Gulf has become deeper, not only between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and major arms control treaties are at stake. In the last year, the world got closer – much too close! – to the brink of significant conflict, and we must do whatever we can to move away from the brink.

It is in this context that the Munich Security Conference Foundation publishes its annual Munich Security Report (download the report as a PDF here). Under the heading "To the Brink - and Back?", the Munich Security Report 2018 provides an overview of major security policy issues and features data, analyses, maps and infographics. As a companion and impulse for the 54th edition of the Munich Security Conference, the Munich Security Report serves as background reading for conference participants, but is also made available to the general public. The last report was downloaded close to 35,000 times and received ample press coverage in both German and international media.

This year's main topics include the crises of the liberal international order and the impact of the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency. It also looks at the new momentum in European defense policy and the potential impact of Brexit. In addition, the report analyses regional developments in Central and Eastern Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. It also provides insights into the state of global nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts, the issue of environmental and climate security as well as cyber security.
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88
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Cause for concern? The top 10 risks to the global economy

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Publication date: 
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
There has arguably never been a greater disconnect between the apparent strength of the global economy and the magnitude of geopolitical, financial and operational risks that organisations are facing. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects momentum in the global economy to remain strong in 2018. The US economy will continue to motor along, the euro area will absorb more of the slack in its labour markets and Chinese consumption, investment and exports will all remain strong. Higher commodity prices will prove a fillip for emerging-market exporters, while a gradual tightening of monetary conditions will not take hold to the extent that it slows growth. Taken together, these factors mean that the global economy is forecast to expand by 3% in 2018, up from a mediocre annual average pace of 2.6% in 2015-16.
Despite the encouraging headline growth figures, the global economy is facing the highest level of risk in years. Indeed, this favourable economic picture appears to come from a completely different world to the one where headlines are dominated by protectionist rhetoric, major territorial disputes, terrorism, surging cyber-crime and even the threat of nuclear war. The global economy has seen periods of high risk before, with threats emanating from the regional and the national level, as well as from state and non-state actors. What is unique about this period of heightened risk, however, is that unlike other periods in recent decades, risks are also originating from the global level, as the US questions its role in the world and partially abdicates from its responsibilities. These moves have signalled the end of the US-led global order and the beginning of a new order. Although the new order will emerge over the next decade, there will be a period of uncertainty as multiple global and regional powers vie for power and influence. For organisations attempting to negotiate these concerns in order to take advantage of the numerous and growing economic opportunities, the stakes are obviously high.
In this report we identify and assess the top ten risks to the global political and economic order. Each of the risks is not only outlined, but also rated in terms of its likelihood and its potential impact on the global economy. This is a small snapshot of our risk quantification capabilities. We also provide operational risk analysis on a country-by-country basis for 180 countries through our Risk Briefing. Meanwhile, we provide detailed credit risk assessments on 131 countries via our Country Risk Service.
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25
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Rethinking Cybersecurity

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, January 9, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Despite all the attention, cyberspace is far from secure. Why this is so reflects conceptual weaknesses as much as imperfect technologies. Two questions highlight shortcomings in the discussion of cybersecurity. The first is why, after more than two decades, we have not seen anything like a cyber Pearl Harbor, cyber 9/11, or cyber catastrophe, despite constant warnings. The second is why, despite the increasing quantity of recommendations, there has been so little improvement, even when these recommendations are implemented.
These questions share an answer: the concepts underlying cybersecurity are an aggregation of ideas conceived in a different time, based on millennial expectations about governance and international security. Similarly, the internet of the 1990s has become “cyber,” a portmanteau term that encompassed the broad range of global economic, political, and military activities transformed by the revolution created by digital technologies.
If our perceptions of the nature of cybersecurity are skewed, so are our defenses. This report examines the accuracy of our perceptions of cybersecurity. It attempts to embed the problem of cyber attack (not crime or espionage) in the context of larger strategic calculations and effects. It argues that policies and perceptions of cybersecurity are determined by factors external to cyberspace, such as political trends affecting relations among states, by thinking on the role of government, and by public attitudes toward risk.
We can begin to approach the problem of cybersecurity by defining attack. While public usage calls every malicious action in cyberspace an attack, it is more accurate to define attacks as those actions using cyber techniques or tools for violence or coercion to achieve political effect. This places espionage and crime in a separate discussion (while noting that some states use crime for political ends and rampant espionage creates a deep sense of concern among states).
Cyber attack does not threaten crippling surprise or existential risk. This means that the incentives for improvement that might motivate governments and companies are, in fact, much smaller than we assume. Nor is cyber attack random and unpredictable. It reflects national policies for coercion and crime. Grounding policy in a more objective appreciation of risk and intent is a first step toward better security.
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50
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Renew Europe

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, January 19, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The “New Concept for Europe” initiative aims to inspire shared and positive aspirations for the future, to help Europe sustain its wellbeing and address the disruptive forces reshaping the world, within and beyond European borders. Based on the values and hopes of Europe’s next generation, it provides a starting point to develop a vision and practical ideas to move forward in addressing these potentially destabilizing forces and assuming a global leadership role.
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40
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Cyber Handbook 2018: Perspectives on the next wave of cyber

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Over the last year, we have reached a new and important turning point in the struggle to manage cyber risk. In the war between cyber attackers and cyber defenders, we have reached what Winston Churchill might call “the end of the beginning.”
Three characteristics mark this new phase. First, global cyber-crime has reached such a high level of sophistication that it represents a mature, though illicit, global business sector in its own right.
Second, with near-ubiquitous technologies now connecting the digital and physical worlds to an unprecedented degree, new potential exists for individual cyber-attacks to devastate critical business and operational processes.
The third characteristic taking shape today is the rising importance of institutions—governments, regulatory authorities, law enforcement agencies, the insurance industry, and others—as a critical to counter the global cyber threat. Cyber risks can only be effectively dealt with if there is a common understanding of their importance and increased interconnected nature.
Against this backdrop, the 2018 edition of the MMC Cyber Risk Handbook provides insights on the shifting cyber threat environment, emerging global regulatory trends, and best practices in the journey to cyber resiliency. The handbook features articles from business leaders across Marsh & McLennan Companies and our expert and notable collaborators. We hope this handbook will help you better understand what it takes to achieve cyber resiliency in the face of this significant and persistent threat.
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75
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