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The future of EU - ASEAN relations

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, April 24, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Marking the 40th anniversary of the start of their dialogue ASEAN and the EU have agreed to work towards establishing a strategic partnership. While trade has always been the cornerstone of the relationship - ASEAN is the EU’s third largest trade partner - the EU’s ambition to expand its role as a global actor demand increased engagement. Both sides face common challenges that can only be addressed through joint responses that involve all stakeholders. To be strategic the partnership must embrace all aspects, from trade to energy, from climate change to security issues, from human rights to sustainable development. Deepening and enhancing relations between one of the most dynamic region in the world and the largest and most affluent market will bring important benefits to both European and ASEAN citizens. The last years have seen an increase in contacts but the many challenges faced today by the EU, internally and in its close neighbourhood, risk to require all attention and put the EU-ASEAN relations at risk. Finally the study argues that strengthening the parliamentary dimension of the relationship would, besides supporting representative democracy in Southeast Asia, contribute to maintaining the momentum launched in 2012.
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38
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Missile Defense 2020: Next Steps for Defending the Homeland

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, April 6, 2017
Abstract in English: 
In policy pronouncements over the last two administrations, the protection of the American homeland was regularly identified as the first priority of U.S. missile defense efforts. Homeland missile defense today is provided by the Ground-based Midcourse Defense program and other elements of the larger Ballistic Missile Defense System. The limited defenses fielded today have advanced considerably since defensive operations began in late 2004, but nevertheless they remain too limited and too modest relative to emerging threats. The Missile Defense Agency’s path to improve the system may require additional effort to stay ahead of even limited missile threats. This report explains how the current system works, as well as current and potential plans to modernize the system, and the authors offer recommendations for future evolution of the system.
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160
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Europe in 2022: Alternative Futures

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, March 29, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Sixty years after the signing of the Treaty of Rome, Europe faces its greatest challenges, and possibly its sharpest turning point, since World War II. The spectrum of possible futures for Europe is wide, encompassing everything from rebirth to disintegration. But, a strong leap toward greater EU-wide integration—as was sometimes the outcome of earlier crises—seems unlikely at best. Instead, this seems a time for smaller steps toward more integration, most likely in response to specific challenges, including: stronger external border controls; enhanced eurozone governance; or a more capable Common Security and Defense Policy. If the positive option is modest integration, the alternative future is one dominated by a clear break with past integration. A presidential victory in May by France’s Marine Le Pen could splinter the European Union, sending it into a tailspin toward disintegration. Even if this dire forecast is avoided, Europe—and especially the European Union (EU)—will face challenges that push it into entirely new directions. If the United States withdraws from Europe, for example, will Europe be forced to accommodate Russian demands? Or will that challenge foster stronger security cooperation among a core set of nations, to counterbalance a weakening NATO? And if Europe’s economy continues on a slow-growth path, will it be able to afford to respond to the challenges it faces?
In this report, Europe in 2022: Alternative Futures, Frances Burwell’s transatlantic expertise joins Mathew Burrows’ deft trends analysis to offer a sobering look at the possible future for Europe with the hope of reigniting the bond between Americans and Europeans so that we may build a better future together.
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86
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White Paper on the future of Europe

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, March 1, 2017
Abstract in English: 
As we prepare to mark the 60th anniversary of the EU, we look back on a peace spanning seven decades and on an enlarged Union of 500 million citizens living in freedom in one of the world's most prosperous economies. At the same time, the EU has to look forward at how it will carve a vision for its own future at 27. The White Paper sets out the main challenges and opportunities for Europe in the coming decade. It presents five scenarios for how the Union could evolve by 2025 depending on how it chooses to respond.
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32
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Preparing Europe for the next 25 years

Title Original Language: 
Préparer l'Europe pour les 25 prochaines années
Abstract Original Language: 
'Préparer l'Europe pour les 25 prochaines années' est une contribution du Secrétaire Général du Parlement européen pour ESPAS (The European Strategy and Policy Analysis System). ESPAS est un cadre de coopération et de consultation, au niveau administratif, sur une base volontaire, entre le Parlement européen, la Commission européenne, le Conseil de l'Union européenne et le Service d'Action extérieure, avec le Comité des Régions et le Comité économique et social en tant qu'observateurs, dans le but d'analyser ensemble les tendances à court et moyen termes pertinentes pour l'Union européenne
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Sunday, May 15, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Preparing Europe for the next 25 years is a contribution from the Secretary General of the European Parliament to the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS). ESPAS provides a framework for cooperation and consultation at administrative level, on a voluntary basis, between the European Parliament, the European Commission, the Council of the European Union, and the European External Action Service, with the Committee of the Regions and the European Economic and Social Committee as observers, to work together on medium and long-term trends facing or relating to the European Union.
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37
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Regional survey: Africa out to 2045

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, December 16, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Africa out to 2045 is published by the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) as part of its Strategic Trends Programme.This is a continuous programme of research which seeks to provide policy makers in the Ministry of Defence and wider government with a strategic context for long term decision making. It follows on from the fifth edition of DCDC’s Global Strategic Trends publication, Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2045 (published in 2014). It seeks to give a sense of the scale and complexity of the challenges and opportunities that Africa is likely to experience over the next 3 decades.

The survey covers the whole of the African continent, identifying the trends which are likely to shape the future of Africa and examining the impact of these at the continental and regional level. In so doing, it highlights both the diversity of the continent and the common challenges faced by much of its population. And recognises Africa’s enormous potential for development and growth and the opportunities which this will bring. Having done so, the survey then highlights the main defence and security implications arising out of the trends identified in this study, to support UK planning and policy in relation to the continent.
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186
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Analyse du marché et des acteurs de la filière industrielle française de sécurité

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Analyse du marché et des acteurs de la filière industrielle française de sécurité
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, November 19, 2015
Abstract in English: 
Depuis le début du 21ème siècle, de nombreux risques ont mis la sécurité à l’ordre du jour des préoccupations des citoyens et des pouvoirs publics. Depuis le début des années 1980, le besoin de sécurité est ressenti avec de plus en plus de force en France et en Europe, et encore plus aux États-Unis. La filière de la sécurité répond à ce besoin, et elle comprend, outre le coeur des industries de sécurité, des services privés et surtout un important secteur de services publics de sécurité non marchands (police et gendarmerie nationales, douanes, polices municipales, sécurité civile dont certaines unités militaires, pompiers, justice, administration pénitentiaire). La filière de sécurité répond à un besoin fondamental des citoyens, cela ne fait aucun doute, et elle constitue une activité majeure. Elle est cependant mal connue faute d’un instrument adéquat de suivi statistique par exemple. C’est pourquoi les pouvoirs publics ont lancé une étude visant à affiner les premières estimations de l’importance économique du secteur de la Sécurité contenues dans le Livre Blanc sur la Défense et la Sécurité nationale publié en 2013. En parallèle, la Commission européenne a lancé une étude sur la filière de la sécurité au plan européen. La filière de la sécurité, et plus particulièrement sa composante industrielle, est en plein développement depuis les années 2000. Elle représentait au total en France en 2013 un volume d’affaires de 60 milliards d’euros et près d’un million d’emplois publics et privés. Le secteur marchand et industriel s’appuie pour sa part, sur un tissu d’entreprises comprenant de grands groupes internationaux et des PME innovantes et fortement exportatrices. C’est une filière en forte croissance. Entre 2003 et 2013 le chiffre d’affaires des produits et services de sécurité s’est développé sensiblement davantage que le PIB, au rythme soutenu de 5% par an jusqu’à la crise de 2008 et réduit à 2% par an ensuite. Dans la période à venir (de 2013 à 2020), la croissance devrait repartir et retrouver sensiblement le même niveau qu’avant la crise (à 5,1% par an selon nos estimations). C’est une filière en mutation. Ces chiffres moyens cachent en réalité une mutation de la filière. La partie traditionnelle des activités de sécurité (protection physique, services de gardiennage) stagne, alors que des domaines nouveaux comme les produits et systèmes numériques et robotiques, ou la cybersécurité, sont en très forte croissance. Cela traduit une mutation de la société elle-même qui se "numérise" et se prépare aux évolutions telles que les réseaux intelligents, les villes intelligentes, les automobiles et les objets connectés, et plus généralement, l’utilisation exponentielles de capteurs toujours plus performants et miniaturisés dont les informations nécessitent stockage et traitement. Toutes leurs applications nécessitent d’être fortement sécurisées et d’intégrer des dispositions de protection de la vie privée dès leur conception (ingénierie de type "privacy by design"). Ces évolutions offrent de formidables opportunités pour l’industrie et les entreprises françaises et européennes, qui nécessiteront de la part de tous les acteurs impliqués des visions audacieuses et une grande rapidité de mise oeuvre pour être saisies.
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32
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Conceivable Surprises

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Sunday, October 16, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Russia’s foreign policy has taken numerous unexpected turns since 2013. Developments such as the annexation of Crimea, the military intervention in Syria, the crisis in relations with Turkey and the instrumentalisation of obscure incidents such as the “Lisa F. case” to discredit the German government all took most Western experts and decision-makers by surprise. Moscow appears to be using unpredictability tactically to take the initiative vis-à-vis other actors. In the process, the Kremlin is deliberately taking risks with potentially unforeseeable consequences for European and inter-national security. The lack of transparency in decision-making processes and the absence of open public debate also make Russia’s foreign policy actions difficult to assess. Moreover, with decision making processes in Russia highly centralised and monopolised, the Kremlin is in a position to act rapidly and does not need to consult with international partners or take account of democratic procedures and domestic political reservations.
That does not mean, however, that there is no room for Germany and Europe to be better prepared. This study identifies conceivable surprises in Russian foreign policy that should expand our thinking about the activities of the political leadership in Moscow.
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78
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Repairing the U.S.-Israel Relationship

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, November 12, 2016
Abstract in English: 
“The U.S.-Israel relationship is in trouble,” warn Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellows Robert D. Blackwill and Philip H. Gordon in a new Council Special Report, Repairing the U.S.-Israel Relationship. Significant policy differences over issues in the Middle East, as well as changing demographics and politics within both the United States and Israel, have pushed the two countries apart. Blackwill, a former senior official in the Bush administration, and Gordon, a former senior official in the Obama administration, call for “a deliberate and sustained effort by policymakers and opinion leaders in both countries” to repair the relationship and to avoid divisions “that no one who cares about Israel’s security or America’s values and interests in the Middle East should want.”
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59
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The Uncertain Trends and Metrics of Terrorism in 2016

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, November 7, 2016
Abstract in English: 
There are no simple or reliable ways to estimate the trends in terrorism, and the National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) no longer provides any declassified estimate of global trends. The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) does, however, provide a useful database for tracking media reporting. In addition to the START database, graphical analyses by key media sources provide additional information that is current, and helps illustrate the sharp contrasts in given sources and estimates. Several NGOs have also made useful estimates that provide additional perspective.
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298
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