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Security

From Shared Vision to Common Action: Implementing the EU Global Strategy

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, June 19, 2017
Abstract in English: 
We have lived through an eventful year within and beyond our European Union. Internally, we faced the United Kingdom’s referendum, a succession of key elections in several European countries, the beginning of a sustained economic recovery, and the 60th anniversary of the Rome Treaties, which both celebrated our past and projected our hopes into the future. The new US Administration is reshaping America's role in the international arena. Ongoing conflicts and tensions near and far, and the persisting threat of terrorism across all continents, including in the heart of Europe, continue to affect the daily life of ordinary citizens.

All these trends and events have made the EU Global Strategy for the European Union's foreign and security policy (EUGS), presented by High Representative and Vice President of the European Commission (HRVP) Federica Mogherini to the European Council in June 2016, a timely tool to tackle complexity within and beyond the EU’s borders. As the title of the EUGS itself suggests – Shared Vision, Common Action: A Stronger Europe – the work was not meant to stop with the elaboration of a shared vision, but to trigger a new beginning through common action. This is why EU Heads of State and Government welcomed the presentation of the Strategy and invited the High Representative, the Commission and the Council to take the work forward.
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33
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Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, January 16, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Thinking about the future is vital but hard. Crises keep intruding, making it all but impossible to look beyond daily headlines to what lies over the horizon. In those circumstances, thinking “outside the box,” to use the cliché, too often loses out to keeping up with the inbox. That is why every four years the National Intelligence Council (NIC) undertakes a major assessment of the forces and choices shaping the world before us over the next two decades.
This version, the sixth in the series, is titled, “Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress,” and we are proud of it. It may look like a report, but it is really an invitation, an invitation to discuss, debate and inquire further about how the future could unfold. Certainly, we do not pretend to have the definitive “answer.”
Long-term thinking is critical to framing strategy. The Global Trends series pushes us to reexamine key assumptions, expectations, and uncertainties about the future. In a very messy and interconnected world, a longer perspective requires us to ask hard questions about which issues and choices will be most consequential in the decades ahead–even if they don’t necessarily generate the biggest headlines. A longer view also is essential because issues like terrorism, cyberattacks, biotechnology, and climate change invoke high stakes and will require sustained collaboration to address.
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225
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Big Data: A Twenty-First Century Arms Race

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, June 27, 2017
Abstract in English: 
We are living in a world awash in data. Accelerated interconnectivity, driven by the proliferation of internet-connected devices, has led to an explosion of data—big data. A race is now underway to develop new technologies and implement innovative methods that can handle the volume, variety, velocity, and veracity of big data and apply it smartly to provide decisive advantage and help solve major challenges facing companies and governments.
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90
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Meeting Security Challenges in a Disordered World

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, June 6, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Today the world faces a volatile convergence of instability, state weakness, and conflict. Lethal civil conflicts rage in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Libya, and South Sudan, stoking regional rivalries, offering safe havens to violent extremist groups, and triggering immense and unprecedented humanitarian crises. Even in regions and states where overt conflict is absent, such as West Africa or Central America, institutional and economic weakness creates unstable conditions that may enflame low level shocks or simmering criminal activity. At times resolution of these conditions may prove elusive and intervention fruitless; however, sometimes security challenges emerging in these environments require immediate and direct response.

The United States must be prepared to operate in a range of complex environments to meet a range of security challenges and threats, such as humanitarian emergencies, terrorism and violent extremism, great power aggression, health security crises, and international criminal violence. This study focuses on these five functional security imperatives and illustrates each imperative through regionally or subnationally defined operating environments. In each case, the selected security imperative must be addressed in the near term to help meet other U.S. objectives. The goal of the case studies is to characterize the operating environment, identify key tasks and responsibilities to address the security imperative, and develop a set of tools and policy recommendations for operating in those specific environments.
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130
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The future of EU - ASEAN relations

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, April 24, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Marking the 40th anniversary of the start of their dialogue ASEAN and the EU have agreed to work towards establishing a strategic partnership. While trade has always been the cornerstone of the relationship - ASEAN is the EU’s third largest trade partner - the EU’s ambition to expand its role as a global actor demand increased engagement. Both sides face common challenges that can only be addressed through joint responses that involve all stakeholders. To be strategic the partnership must embrace all aspects, from trade to energy, from climate change to security issues, from human rights to sustainable development. Deepening and enhancing relations between one of the most dynamic region in the world and the largest and most affluent market will bring important benefits to both European and ASEAN citizens. The last years have seen an increase in contacts but the many challenges faced today by the EU, internally and in its close neighbourhood, risk to require all attention and put the EU-ASEAN relations at risk. Finally the study argues that strengthening the parliamentary dimension of the relationship would, besides supporting representative democracy in Southeast Asia, contribute to maintaining the momentum launched in 2012.
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38
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Missile Defense 2020: Next Steps for Defending the Homeland

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, April 6, 2017
Abstract in English: 
In policy pronouncements over the last two administrations, the protection of the American homeland was regularly identified as the first priority of U.S. missile defense efforts. Homeland missile defense today is provided by the Ground-based Midcourse Defense program and other elements of the larger Ballistic Missile Defense System. The limited defenses fielded today have advanced considerably since defensive operations began in late 2004, but nevertheless they remain too limited and too modest relative to emerging threats. The Missile Defense Agency’s path to improve the system may require additional effort to stay ahead of even limited missile threats. This report explains how the current system works, as well as current and potential plans to modernize the system, and the authors offer recommendations for future evolution of the system.
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160
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Europe in 2022: Alternative Futures

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, March 29, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Sixty years after the signing of the Treaty of Rome, Europe faces its greatest challenges, and possibly its sharpest turning point, since World War II. The spectrum of possible futures for Europe is wide, encompassing everything from rebirth to disintegration. But, a strong leap toward greater EU-wide integration—as was sometimes the outcome of earlier crises—seems unlikely at best. Instead, this seems a time for smaller steps toward more integration, most likely in response to specific challenges, including: stronger external border controls; enhanced eurozone governance; or a more capable Common Security and Defense Policy. If the positive option is modest integration, the alternative future is one dominated by a clear break with past integration. A presidential victory in May by France’s Marine Le Pen could splinter the European Union, sending it into a tailspin toward disintegration. Even if this dire forecast is avoided, Europe—and especially the European Union (EU)—will face challenges that push it into entirely new directions. If the United States withdraws from Europe, for example, will Europe be forced to accommodate Russian demands? Or will that challenge foster stronger security cooperation among a core set of nations, to counterbalance a weakening NATO? And if Europe’s economy continues on a slow-growth path, will it be able to afford to respond to the challenges it faces?
In this report, Europe in 2022: Alternative Futures, Frances Burwell’s transatlantic expertise joins Mathew Burrows’ deft trends analysis to offer a sobering look at the possible future for Europe with the hope of reigniting the bond between Americans and Europeans so that we may build a better future together.
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86
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White Paper on the future of Europe

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, March 1, 2017
Abstract in English: 
As we prepare to mark the 60th anniversary of the EU, we look back on a peace spanning seven decades and on an enlarged Union of 500 million citizens living in freedom in one of the world's most prosperous economies. At the same time, the EU has to look forward at how it will carve a vision for its own future at 27. The White Paper sets out the main challenges and opportunities for Europe in the coming decade. It presents five scenarios for how the Union could evolve by 2025 depending on how it chooses to respond.
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32
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Preparing Europe for the next 25 years

Title Original Language: 
Préparer l'Europe pour les 25 prochaines années
Abstract Original Language: 
'Préparer l'Europe pour les 25 prochaines années' est une contribution du Secrétaire Général du Parlement européen pour ESPAS (The European Strategy and Policy Analysis System). ESPAS est un cadre de coopération et de consultation, au niveau administratif, sur une base volontaire, entre le Parlement européen, la Commission européenne, le Conseil de l'Union européenne et le Service d'Action extérieure, avec le Comité des Régions et le Comité économique et social en tant qu'observateurs, dans le but d'analyser ensemble les tendances à court et moyen termes pertinentes pour l'Union européenne
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Sunday, May 15, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Preparing Europe for the next 25 years is a contribution from the Secretary General of the European Parliament to the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS). ESPAS provides a framework for cooperation and consultation at administrative level, on a voluntary basis, between the European Parliament, the European Commission, the Council of the European Union, and the European External Action Service, with the Committee of the Regions and the European Economic and Social Committee as observers, to work together on medium and long-term trends facing or relating to the European Union.
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37
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Regional survey: Africa out to 2045

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, December 16, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Africa out to 2045 is published by the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) as part of its Strategic Trends Programme.This is a continuous programme of research which seeks to provide policy makers in the Ministry of Defence and wider government with a strategic context for long term decision making. It follows on from the fifth edition of DCDC’s Global Strategic Trends publication, Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2045 (published in 2014). It seeks to give a sense of the scale and complexity of the challenges and opportunities that Africa is likely to experience over the next 3 decades.

The survey covers the whole of the African continent, identifying the trends which are likely to shape the future of Africa and examining the impact of these at the continental and regional level. In so doing, it highlights both the diversity of the continent and the common challenges faced by much of its population. And recognises Africa’s enormous potential for development and growth and the opportunities which this will bring. Having done so, the survey then highlights the main defence and security implications arising out of the trends identified in this study, to support UK planning and policy in relation to the continent.
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186
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