Technology

Addressing the European Commission's report on trends and issues to watch, the EESC stressed that it could have helped much more if it had been involved in the foresight exercise from the start.
The EESC opinion on the 2022 Strategic Foresight Report (SFR), adopted at the March plenary session, stressed that the EESC can strengthen the EU's analysis and foresight capacities. As the eyes and ears of civil society, it is best placed to pinpoint emerging trends. As a demonstration of this, the EESC also volunteered early input to the forthcoming 2023 SFR.
The rapporteur, Angelo Pagliara, set out some of the thinking behind the opinion: "Many of the issues in the Commission's report have already been addressed by the EESC in its opinions in previous years, and we have very strong expertise and experience. So, come to us, involve us more, because we can really help you."
The 2022 SFR looks into how best to align the EU's climate ambitions and its potentially clashing digital goals, and identifies ten key areas where action is needed to maximise synergies and consistency. In this respect, the EESC calls for a strategic foresight agenda geared towards a new development model that combines economic, environmental and social sustainability and puts people at the centre.

Opinion of the European Economic and Social Committee on the Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council – 2020 Strategic Foresight Report – Strategic foresight – Charting the course towards a more resilient Europe

This report presents the modelling work quoted in the EC communication "The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020” in the EU’s Energy Union package. It examines the effects of a Baseline scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, and of a Global Mitigation scenario in line with keeping global warming below 2°C. The analysis uses the POLES and GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change. In the Baseline, emissions trigger +3.5°C global warming. In the Global Mitigation scenario, all regions realise domestic emission cuts to stay below 2°C, with various profiles in 2020-2050 depending on their national characteristics. A significant transformation of the energy systems and non-energy measures enable regions at all levels of income to move to a low-emission growth pathway. Sectors linked (directly or indirectly) to carbon-intensive processes adjust their investments to be competitive in a low-emission environment. A significant number of regions draw economic benefits from shifting their expenditures on fossil energy imports to investments. GDP growth rates are marginally affected in most regions by global efforts to reduce emissions. Crucially, high growth rates are maintained in fast-growing low-income regions. Economic costs are reduced further when countries use emission permit auction revenues for other tax reductions. Delaying actions to stay below 2°C add large economic costs.