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United Nations Security Council Resolution 1540 (2004) calls on states to prevent criminals, militant groups and other non-state actors from acquiring or using weapons of mass destruction. This monograph is based on papers that were presented and discussed at a meeting of former members of the 1540 Committee’s group of experts. The meeting took place in Cape Town, South Africa in May 2015, and was organised by the ISS in cooperation with the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs and using funds from voluntary contributions by the governments of the Republic of Korea and the United States of America. The monograph is a timely assessment towards the 2016 Comprehensive Review of the implementation of Resolution 1540. It covers a broad spectrum of topics and recommends better ways to combat the threat of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. The reader is invited to explore and think critically about the international community’s efforts in this regard.

In a changing world of work and governance, there is a widespread perception that the traditional professions are under siege. Their authority and status, their exclusive access to specialised knowledge, and their right to regulate their own affairs are all seriously being challenged. No longer able to claim special privileges as disinterested, altruistic occupational groups acting detachedly in the public interest, professions are finding their traditional values and loyalties eroded.

The challenge is coming not only from a better informed and less deferential public, but also from governments sensitive to public concerns, from the media which reflect and amplify them, and from the organisations in both public and private sectors which employ their members.

Representatives of ‘old’ professions are being asked to work in entirely different ways, and ‘new’ professions are emerging all the time in areas like management, culture, meditation, counselling and the environment.

Do we still need ‘professions’ based on the 20th century model (itself a creation of the 19th century before) – self‐appointed, self‐assessed and self‐serving guardians of standards, values and social stability?

This report of the Expert Group on integrated strategic foresight modelling aims to provide advice on how to develop a modelling tool that can integrate knowledge and data from forward-looking activities like foresight, in a transdisciplinary manner that could be used by policymakers. Forward-looking activities have the potential to explore issues via a systems-thinking approach. Integrating the available knowledge into such a system approach requires the development of integrated foresight methods. Such methods can support the Commission in its efforts to enhance the quality of evidence-based policymaking. These methods can proactively identify future policy areas and develop an inclusive agenda for research and innovation that reflects changing societal needs and aspirations. The report considers the current foresight structures employed in the Commission and related institutions, and reviews current ideas about foresight processes for policy development. Concurrent Design Foresight is proposed as a concept that offers the necessary breadth of approach, the ability to allow for conflicting interests and opinions, and the ability to react quickly and in response to the needs of policy development. The expert group concludes that policymakers would benefit from a platform that supports Concurrent Design Foresight, enabling real-time interaction with stakeholders through both non-numerical and numerical modelling. The expert group therefore recommends that the Commission develop such a platform

The new EU leadership – the president of the European Commission and his team of commissioners, and the presidents of the European Council and of the European Parliament – will have to address pressing challenges. Despite the significant steps taken by Europe – among them the creation of a European Stability Mechanism, the start of a banking union, the strengthening of fiscal rules and substantial structural reforms in crisis countries – results for citizens are still unsatisfactory. It is impossible to summarise all the memos in this volume but a common theme is the need to focus on pro-growth policies, on a deepening of the single market, on better and more global trade integration. Reverting to national protectionism, more state aid for national or European champions – as frequently argued for by national politicians – will not be the right way out of the crisis. On the contrary, more Europe and deeper economic integration in some crucial areas, such as energy, capital markets and the digital economy, would greatly support the feeble recovery. But in other areas, less Europe would also be a highly welcome signal that the new European leadership is serious about subsidiarity. Internal re-organisation of the European Commission to ensure that it better delivers would also be welcome.

Europe needs improved competitiveness to escape the current economic malaise, so it might seem surprising that there is no common European definition of competitiveness, and no consensus on how to consistently measure it.

To help address this situation, this Blueprint provides an inventory and an assessment of the data related to the measurement of competitiveness in Europe. It is intended as a handbook for researchers interested in measuring competiveness, and for policymakers interested in new and better measures of competitiveness.

MAPCOMPETE has been designed to provide an assessment of data opportunities and requirements for the comparative analysis of competitiveness in European countries at the macro and the micro level.

This study starts with two essays laying the groundwork for the very idea of futures studies and future scenario forecasting. The first, by renowned futurist from the University of Hawaii, Professor James Allen Dator, introduces the discipline. In the second, respected futurist and business strategist Peter Schwartz describes the scenario planning context, process and application for business and policymakers.

This study aims to foster a dialogue about the future of logistics by describing a number of different scenarios, or pictures of the world, in 2050.

At a time when the new European Commission announced that it will concentrate on bold initiatives, it is important to recall that any policy decision has complex ramifications. Indeed, an increasing number of decisions affect several policy portfolios, and they need to take into account an increasing number of parameters, like geopolitics, economics, finance, security, health, environment, climate change, sociology, urbanisation, ageing society, and integrate fundamental European social values such gender equality and ethics. In addition, the technological breakthroughs are accelerating as never be-fore in history and social innovation (e.g. social media) augments the speed of information gathering and dissemination.
Because societies become ever more complex, collaborative long-term anticipation must replace the "silo" thinking habits and the short-termism that has characterised many aspects of policy-making in Europe.
Foreseeing is not sufficient anymore because it is only a tactical extrapolation of current trends; it is the future of the past. Foresighting however is strategic because it is based on more disruptive views; it is about the future of the future.

The challenge of resilience in a globalised world discusses the concept of resilience from different perspectives and the role of science in the continuous process of building a resilient, stable, competitive and prosperous Europe.

Resilience is a fundamental prerequisite for Europe as the largest integrated economic area in the world and has an important social dimension which requires the active cooperation of all stakeholders; citizens, the private sector, governments and NGOs included.

The Strategic Foresight Analysis (SFA) identified five themes: Political, Human, Technology, Economics/Resources and Environment. Under these themes 15 trends were identified that are expected to shape the future security environment out to 2030 and beyond. From these 15 trends, one trend was analysed in more depth - Demographics.

Project PREDICT (Projections and Relevant Effects of Demographic Implications, Changes, and Trends), was launched at the end of 2013 as a follow-up study to the SFA. Building on long-term cooperation between ACT and the University of Bologna (Italy), the PREDICT project also involved the active participation of the University of Warwick (UK), Sabanci University (Turkey), Johns Hopkins University – SAIS (US/Italy) and the Bruno Kessler Foundation (Italy).

SFA was designed as an iterative process and one which NATO intends to update regularly to provide NATO, national leaders and defence planners with a perspective of the challenges facing the Alliance in the decades to come. Within this framework, the PREDICT goal has been to further develop the research of the “human theme”, focusing on human demographics as the main forecasting variable employed to build different scenarios for NATO in 2035. PREDICT provides an analysis of demographic trends such as population growth, aging, and population composition all of which play a fundamental role in the current and foreseeable shifting distribution of international power. The report also provides security challenges which largely depend on the broader socio-political context in which demographic trends interact with economic, environmental, energy, health and technological trends.

In a period of budget austerity and emerging threats, defense policymakers must contend with a range of competing requirements. And while current conflicts take precedence, the Defense Department must also focus on developing the force of the future. To do so, it is first necessary to consider the nature of conflict and types of missions the U.S. military may face in the coming decades. By assessing the key components, or drivers, of the future security environment (FSE), an unknowable future becomes a bit clearer. This report provides such an assessment. Drawing on qualitative data such as national security and foreign policy literature, Defense Department strategy and operational documents, and interviews with leading academics and practitioners, this study identifies and examines the drivers of the FSE in order to guide analysis and decisionmaking.