Technology

In 2030, will the Internet and related information and communications technologies (ICT) continue to drive global innovation and prosperity? Or, will that bright promise be swamped by an unstable and insecure Internet, so overwhelmed by non-stop attacks that it has become an increasing drag on economic growth? The answers, as far as we can predict, are not promising and mean the difference in tens of trillions of dollars in global economic growth over the next fifteen years.
So far, cyberspace has been safe enough, secure enough, and resilient enough for the past decades to re-invent nearly every industry, create a ’hyperconnected world,’ and transform the global economy.

The big-data are a revolution. The exponential data growth determines a new way to use them. These are now capable of numerous reuses unrelated to their initial collection.

The US military is at a crossroads. After a decade of war with nearly unlimited defence spending, the Pentagon must determine how to absorb nearly $500 billion in cuts over 10 years amid debate over how the ‘future force’ should be structured and equipped. The challenges of force planning for Pentagon strategists will only be exacerbated by an uncertain and challenging security environment combined with a war-weary public, debates over the United States’ role in the world and fears of its ‘retrenchment’.

The simplistic US-China focused narrative of the future of the Asia-Pacific does not sufficiently take into consideration other regional actors such as Japan and India, new instruments of leverage in the region, or the extent and complexity of changing relationships.

In making the situation appear simpler than reality, Asia-Pacific countries and the United States risk narrowing the aperture through which they evaluate policy choices regarding major regional challenges. At the same time, the bipolar perspective, potentially invoking Cold War-type mentalities, could exacerbate tensions rather than relieve them. Seeing US–Chinese competition as the main variable in the region could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

This paper seeks to go beyond this perception by laying out the major narratives of the region’s power distribution currently in play in its four principal powers – the United States, China, India and Japan. Building on a review of the main instruments of power and the current regional trends, this paper argues that the Asia-Pacific region in 2030 will have at least four principal characteristics:
- The pace of change will increase, along with its volatility. This will result in the power distribution between the principal actors becoming more complex, finely balanced and difficult to assess clearly. The emergence of new, often disruptive, technologies, particularly in media and communications, will make control of information increasingly difficult.
- Power will become more diverse and diffuse, with more state and non-state actors having influential roles. Power is also becoming more diffuse within states, making it harder for governments to manage internal debates and to send clear messages to neighbours, particularly where nationalism is growing.
- The region will become more complex, unpredictable and thus hard to govern as a result of the rise of new actors, challenges and tools. This could lead to policy paralysis on the part of leading state actors as a swiftly changing environment and too many choices lead to greater uncertainty and, in the end, hesitancy or no action being taken.
- The region will become more interdependent, which makes the previous point troubling. Already, all states in the Asia-Pacific are increasingly dependent on one another for growth, stability and security.

This report outlines key driving factors for the evolution of serious and organised crime in the EU. The document describes these key drivers, their impact on serious and organised crime and the potential impact on individual crime areas and organised crime groups (OCGs). It does not claim to make definitive predictions or provide a complete picture of crime in the future, but rather aims to outline plausible developments and to encourage law enforcement authorities to consider and explore the potential evolution of serious and organised crime.

The report opens with a discussion of Europe's changing criminal landscape and the key drivers that will impact on serious and organised crime over the next decade. The key driving factors presented in this document were inspired by the Serious and Organised Crime Futures Forum held at Europol in March 2014. The Forum brought together experts from government, the private sector, think tanks and international organisations as well as a large number of law enforcement experts from various Member States and third states associated with Europol. In a two-step process, all participants first identified key driving factors in the environment. Law enforcement professionals then engaged in discussions to outline the potential impact of these factors on serious and organised crime. The report focuses on those key drivers with the most profound impact on serious and organised crime in the future. These fall within two categories, technology and socio-economic developments, and are each dis-cussed by focussing on their general impact and their impact on serious and organised crime specifically.

In addition to exploring potential developments in serious and organised crime, the report also provides a view on the future of law enforcement and how law enforcement authorities across the EU and on a global level may seek to counter and contain organised crime activities over the next decade.

Project 2020 is an initiative of the International Cyber Security Protection Alliance (ICSPA). Its aim is to anticipate the future of cybercrime, enabling governments, businesses and citizens to prepare themselves for the challenges and opportunities of the coming decade. It comprises a range of activities, including common threat reporting, scenario exercises, policy guidance and capacity building.

The scenarios in this document are not predictions of a single future. Rather, they are descriptions of a possible future, which focuses on the impact of cybercrime from the perspectives of an ordinary Internet user, a manufacturer, a communications service provider and a government. The events and developments described are designed to be plausible in some parts of the world, as opposed to inevitable in all. They take their inspiration from analysis of the current threat landscape, the expert opinion of ICSPA members and extensive horizon scanning, particularly of emerging technologies.

Questions about the reliability, affordability and sustainability of our energy future often boil down to questions about investment. But are investors ready to commit capital in a fast-changing energy world? This special report in the World Energy Outlook series takes up this question in a full and comprehensive update of the energy investment picture to 2035 – a first full update since the 2003 World Energy Investment Outlook. With benchmark data on past investment trends and updated projections for investment at regional and global level, the report provides insights into:
- The structure of ownership and models for financing investment in different parts of the energy sector.
- The continued importance of oil investment in the Middle East to meet demand, and the consequences of delay in such investment.
- The dynamics and costs of LNG investment and how this can shape the future of global gas supply.
- Where investment in the power sector might fall short of what is required, with important findings on the reliability of electricity supply in Europe and in India.
- The outlook for investment in low-carbon technologies, including renewables, and energy efficiency and the barriers to their realisation.
- How global investment and financing requirements change if governments take stronger action to address climate change.

The document is a contribution to a growing body of knowledge and is aimed at the defence community. It seeks to build on previous editions of Global Strategic Trends with a more accessible format. It has a greater focus on defence and security issues and expands on other subjects, including resources, and the resurgence of ideology. From a comprehensive review of trends, it draws out 3 key themes: how we will adapt to the reality of a shifting climate and breakneck technological innovation (see the Human Environment); the dominance of the West in international affairs will fade and global power will become more evenly distributed between the West and the rising powers in Asia (see the Dynamics of Global Power); and finally, as society and the distribution of global power changes, the challenges to defence and security will increase (see Evolving Defence and Security Challenges). It draws lessons from contemporary events to conclude that globalisation is a more volatile process than previously envisaged and that this volatility may leave globalised systems more vulnerable to strategic shock and systemic failure. It also draws out high level global defence and security implications.

Through a combination of stable technology, dedicated technicians and, resistance to random outages, the Internet has been resilient to attacks on a day-to-day basis, creating an extended period of prosperity. Yet, as we approach nearly absolute dependence on the Internet, cyber attacks of the future can and will affect globally interconnected systems like electrical grids and worldwide logistics systems. This Internet of tomorrow will be a source of global shocks for which risk managers, corporate executives, board directors, and government officials are not prepared.

Futurium is a small concrete attempt to respond to the growing demand for citizen participation in policy making. Its structured approach to content co-creation and synthesis allows streamlining otherwise expensive traditional foresight processes.
The Futurium is an open source project, free for download by any public administration or private organisation. It is work in progress. Everyone can contribute to its further improvement and development or use it to support specific foresight and policy making needs.