Technology

Understanding trends in science and technology and interpreting state-of-the-art research results in view of their potential to influence future space activities is an input to long-term strategies. This paper presents some mechanisms adopted by a corporate research think-tank, the Advanced Concepts Team of ESA. These include the analysis of research results of the team and its academic network, the analysis of science and technology forecast reports and interpretation of expectations of the science community as expressed during advanced concepts workshops.

The quality of territorial foresight and, in particular, of urban foresight, is nowadays measured not so much in terms of the ability to anticipate possible futures, always challenged by the increasing uncertainty and the exponential rate of change, as in terms of the ability to construct collective visions of the future that are ambitious, proactive and engaging for stakeholders and citizens.
What foresight has to offer is its capacity to approach both long-term challenges, perceived in the present, as well as shared aims and values in a distant horizon. This publication attempts to address these challenges by ‘imagineering’ the future of cities though the application of methods and techniques drawn from the strategic foresight and prediction fields in a systematic, rigorous and holistic way.

This paper by Fan Gao, assesses the extent to which China is likely to achieve levels of shale gas production by 2020 which would make a meaningful difference to its growing need for imports of pipeline gas and LNG. The study suggests that given the rather disappointing progress on Coal Bed Methane production since exploration and development work started some 25 years ago, a cautionary approach is needed in anticipating the outlook for shale gas for the remainder of this decade. The specific challenges include water availability and population density demographics as well as the need to stimulate an innovative competitive dynamic in the Chinese upstream service sector and an appropriate upstream investment framework with foreign participants for the transfer and application of technology.

The paper provides a rare appreciation of the dynamics of the onshore Chinese upstream industry and from that basis a better understanding of what will be required, on a number of policy levels, for Chinese shale gas development to succeed.

Innovation is essential for France to be in the global competition in ten years, and maintain its standard of living and social model. The report outlines seven technological and industrial goals for France for 2030: energy storage, recycling of materials, the promotion of marine resources, green proteins, individualized medicine, silver economy and promotion of massive data (Big data).

This paper identifies and analyses some key challenges that OECD and partner economies may face over the coming 50 years if underlying global trends relating to growth, trade, inequality and environmental pressures prevail. For example, global growth is likely to slow and become increasingly dependent on knowledge and technology, while the economic costs of environmental damages will mount. The rising economic importance of knowledge will tend to raise returns to skills, likely leading to further increases in earning inequalities within countries. While increases in pre-tax earnings do not automatically transform into rising income inequality, the ability of governments to cushion this impact may be limited, as rising trade integration and consequent rising mobility of tax bases combined with substantial fiscal pressures may hamper such efforts. The paper discusses to what extent national structural policies can address these and other interlinked challenges, but also points to the growing need for international coordination and cooperation to deal with these issues over the coming 50 years.

The Atlantic Council’s 2012 report Envisioning 2030: US Strategy in a Post-Western World, written as a companion piece with the US National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, stated, “the keystone of national power remains US economic strength and innovation.” Building upon this statement, this year’s Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for the Coming Technology Revolution, edited by Strategic Foresight Initiative Director Mathew J. Burrows, explores the consequences of major disruptions that will be caused by emerging technologies and recommends that the United States must prepare now if it wants to remain competitive on the global stage.

Manufacturing is the most important source of economic development and growth. The economic importance of manufacturing goes far beyond its contribution to GDP, for which the European Commission has put forward a target of 20 %. The manufacturing industry in the EU is worth € 7.000 billion in turnover and it accounts for 80% of the total EU exports and 80 % of the private R&D expenditure. Moreover, it provides jobs for 30 million employees directly and is the source for twice as many jobs indirectly, the vast majority in small or medium-sized enterprises. To maintain its importance the industry in Europe needs modernisation. Last year the contribution of manufacturing to EU GDP has declined to 15.1 %. To be able to reverse this trend and start an Industrial Renaissance in Europe, we need more investment in innovation, resource efficiency, new technologies and skills. In the conclusions of the European Council of 20-21 March 2014, the Heads of State and Government underlined that industrial competitiveness should be at the centre of policy-making at all levels. It is an important signal for both the public and the business sector, to which they should respond with specific measures facilitating the industrial change. That’s why advanced manufacturing is one of the six priority areas for the modernisation of industry in the European Union. The market uptake of advanced manufacturing and clean technologies can improve productivity, resource efficiency and competitiveness in any manufacturing sector. To speed up this process a dedicated Task Force on Advanced Manufacturing for Clean Production was created in 2013. One year after its creation, the Task Force has drawn up a set of targeted actions aimed at advancing the European industry. In order to give Europe a competitive lead in the new industrial revolution, we need to engage in a partnership between the European Commission, Member States and industry. Europe needs industry and industry needs Europe. Get prepared for the future of manufacturing!

This report emerges from the Pew Research Center’s efforts to understand public attitudes about a variety of scientific and technological changes being discussed today. The time horizons of these technological advances span from today’s realities—for instance, the growing prevalence of drones—to more speculative matters such as the possibility of human control of the weather.

Urban issues are tackled in different Challenges of the Horizon 2020, the European Framework Programme for Research and Innovation. In Challenge 6 dealing with Inclusive, Innovative and Reflective Societies, a specific socio-economic item deals with “The promotion of sustainable and inclusive environments through innovative spatial and urban planning and design”. This publication highlights 10 stakeholders-based urban subjects to be addressed over the next years. It also provides a list of the EU urban research projects funded in the 7th EU Framework Programme (Social Sciences and Humanities; Sustainability and Environment; Transport and Energy; ICT; Smart Cities; and Security).