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Technology

A new energy strategy for the Western Hemisphere

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, March 6, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The Western Hemisphere has a unique advantage in global energy markets. It is rich in natural resources, from conventional fuels such as oil and natural gas, to critical minerals such as lithium for batteries. The region is also poised to become a leader in newer and emerging energy resources. It has, for example, abundant potential for solar and wind energy and other advanced energy technologies, such as nuclear energy. It enjoys high and rapidly growing levels of renewable energy, especially in power generation, largely based on significant levels of legacy, utility-scale hydropower.1
Many of the Americas’ subregions share cross-border electric power or liquid fuel interconnections. The vast majority of its nations share common values, including a commitment to democracy, the rule of law, and shared prosperity. The countries of the Americas are bound together through market-based trade, mutual investment, and deep cultural and security ties. Moreover, the hemisphere is indispensable to US energy security. The United States derives the majority of its imports of oil, gas, and electricity from its neighbors and there is considerable potential for trade in increasingly high-value minerals.
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24
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The Digitalisation of Science, Technology and Innovation

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Publication date: 
Tuesday, February 11, 2020
Abstract in English: 
This report examines digitalisation’s effects on science, technology and innovation and the associated consequences for policy. In varied and far-reaching ways, digital technologies are changing how scientists work, collaborate and publish. While examining these developments, this book also assesses the effects of digitalisation on longstanding policy themes, from access to publicly funded research data, to the diffusion of technology and its absorption by firms. New and emerging topics are also explored. These include the roles of artificial intelligence and blockchain in science and production, using digital technology to draw on the collective intelligence of the scientific community, advances in the digitalisation of biotechnology, and possible "dark sides" of digitalisation.
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182
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The social contract in the 21st century

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, February 15, 2020
Abstract in English: 
Life has changed substantially for individuals in advanced economies in the first two decades of the 21st century as a result of trends including disruptions in technology, globalization, the economic crisis of 2008 and its recovery, and shifting market and institutional dynamics. In many ways, changes for individuals have been for the better, including new opportunities and overall economic growth—and the prospect of more to come as the century progresses, through developments in science, technology and innovation, and productivity growth. Yet, the relatively positive perspective on the state of the economy, based on GDP and job growth indicators, needs to be complemented with a fuller assessment of the economic outcomes for individuals as workers, consumers, and savers.
In a report, The social contract in the 21st century: Outcomes so far for workers, consumers, and savers in advanced economies, the McKinsey Global Institute takes an in-depth look at these changes in 22 advanced economies in Asia, Europe, and North America, covering 57 percent of global GDP. Among the findings: while opportunities for work have expanded and employment rates have risen to record levels in many countries, work polarization and income stagnation are real and widespread. The cost of many discretionary goods and services has fallen sharply, but basic necessities such as housing, healthcare, and education are absorbing an ever-larger proportion of incomes. Coupled with wage stagnation effects, this is eroding the welfare of the bottom three quintiles of the population by income level (roughly 500 million people in 22 countries). Public pensions are being scaled back—and roughly the same three quintiles of the population do not or cannot save enough to make up the difference.

These shifts point to an evolution in the “social contract”: the arrangements and expectations, often implicit, that govern the exchanges between individuals and institutions. Broadly, individuals have had to assume greater responsibility for their economic outcomes. While many have benefited from this evolution, for a significant number of individuals the changes are spurring uncertainty, pessimism, and a general loss of trust in institutions.

Policy makers, business leaders, and individuals will need to focus on two fronts. The first is sustaining and expanding the gains achieved through continued economic and productivity growth; business dynamism; investment in economies, technology and innovation; and continued focus on job growth and opportunity creation. The second is tackling the challenges individuals face, especially those most affected. Leaders are beginning to respond to these opportunities and challenges to varying degrees. However, more is needed given the scale of the opportunities and challenges, if the outcomes for the next 20 or more years of the 21st century are to be better than the first 20 and increase broad prosperity.
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176
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Munich Security Report 2020 - Westlessness

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, February 14, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The Munich Security Report 2020 provides an overview of major security policy challenges and features insightful data and analyses across selected geographic and thematic spotlights. In addition to its role as a trusted companion and conversation starter for the Munich Security Conference, the report series has also become a go-to resource for security professionals and the interested public around the world. The previous report was downloaded tens of thousands of times and received widespread coverage in German and international media.
The Munich Security Report 2020 analyzes current security policy developments in China, Europe, Russia and the United States, and furthermore examines regional dynamics in the Mediterranean, the Middle East and South Asia. In addition, it provides insights into the issues of space and climate security, as well as into the threats arising from new technologies and increasingly transnational right-wing extremism.
The Munich Security Report features a number of exclusive and unpublished materials. For the preparation of the report, the Munich Security Conference Foundation collaborated with renowned partner institutions, including the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), The Brookings Institution, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, International Crisis Group, The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), McKinsey & Company, Pew Research Center, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), and the Zentrum für Osteuropa- und international Studien (ZOiS).
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102
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Shaping a Multiconceptual World - 2020

Title Original Language: 
Shaping a Multiconceptual World
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 22, 2020
Abstract in English: 
In the report’s opening chapter, “The Expansion of Geopolitics”, World Economic Forum President Børge Brende argues the number of actors exerting geopolitical influence is growing and domains for geopolitical competition or cooperation are also expanding. Within this context, Brende calls for a cooperative order: “The more powers compete and pursue strategic advantage at the expense of addressing shared technological, environmental and economic challenges, the more likely it will be that a broader sense of friction will develop across the global system. A rivalrous global system will in turn make it more unlikely that shared priorities are fulfilled,” he writes. Brende notes that global coordination in the wake of the 11 September 2001 terror attacks and the 2008 global financial crisis offer a paradigm for a more collaborative response to geopolitical challenges. Cooperation, he argues, will ultimately prove more beneficial to individual states – and to the world at large. “As the world becomes even more interconnected in terms of flows of information, capital and people, states will be more reliant on one another to realize positive outcomes for themselves and the global community,” Brende writes. “At a time when power dynamics are in flux, there is an opportunity for stakeholders to make the decision to shape geopolitics in a cooperative, rather than competitive, manner.”
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78
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Megatrends in Africa

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, December 4, 2019
Abstract in English: 
The reports are not academic research as such. The authors are academically qualified researchers, however, and they base their findings on academic studies. In this study, six major trends in Africa are defined as megatrends: population growth, climate change, urbanisation, migration, techno­logical development and democratic development.
Megatrends in Africa are deep and long-term transformation processes that are irreversible. They can and should be mitigated, but will inevitably require adaptation as well. The trends also have an element of foresight, in regards to how they are set to develop in the future.
All the megatrends are interlinked and affect each other. Population growth and climate change can be seen as mega-megatrends that have an especially strong effect on the other trends.
The study contains reports on all six megatrends, which are examined through a Pan-African lens. The study also includes a summary of all megatrends and the interaction of their effects.
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56
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Global Trends to 2030 : The Future of Urbanization and Megacities

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, November 27, 2019
Abstract in English: 
"Cities have played a more important role in shaping the world than empires" (quote from M. Bloomberg, former mayor of New York (in office 2020-2013).
For the past two decades, the world has seen its population increasingly concentrated in urban areas. This trend is not new but will speed up at a remar-kable rate in years to come. Rising global urbanization is one of the defining trends of the 21st century. Projections show that urbanization combined with the overall growth of the world population could add another 2.5 billion people to the urban population by 2050. The megacity is a new form of urbanization, which has been described as the urban phenomenon of the 21st century. In 1950, only New York and Tokyo had a population of over 10 million. By 2025-2030, it is estimated that around 630 million people will live in close to 40 megacities around the world. Megacities are an invention of the West and have become a reality in the East. Japan's capital Tokyo will still be the largest of them all, followed by Delhi and Shanghai. The list is dominated by cities in Asia, but several in Latin America and Africa will grow rapidly as well. In addition to these megacities, about 400 million people will live in cities of 5-10 million people, and just over 1 billion people are expected be living in cities of 1-5 million. However, most of the world's urban population will still live in cities of less than 1 million people. The consequences of modern urbanization must not be underestimated. In today globalized world, "local" and "global" are more and more interconnected and many developments at urban level are in fact part of global trends. Understanding the causes and consequences of urbanization is crucial to ensuring a proper response to the global issues of our time and in preparing for the period ahead.
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17
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Transforming Infrastructure: Frameworks for Bringing the Fourth Industrial Revolution to Infrastructure

Title Original Language: 
Transforming Infrastructure: Frameworks for Bringing the Fourth Industrial Revolution to Infrastructure
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Sunday, November 3, 2019
Abstract in English: 
The technological advances of the Fourth Industrial Revolution have fundamentally altered society in ways both seen and unseen. This digital transformation has changed how people live and work, and everything in-between. One area of daily life, however, seems to be largely missing out on this revolution: infrastructure. It remains one of the least digitally transformed sectors of the economy. While individual examples of highly advanced infrastructure systems exist, the sector at large lags behind others in innovation, a fact made all the more apparent by infrastructure’s ubiquity. When the World Economic Forum Global Future Council on Infrastructure gathered for its annual meeting in Dubai in November 2018, it sought to understand why.As it began to think through solutions, the Council found a situation full of opportunity. Infrastructure is far from being a staid industry devoid of innovation – indeed, new technologies and ideas are flourishing. Integrating these innovations, which could change the way infrastructure is designed, developed and delivered, requires aligning stakeholders, implementing effective strategies and creating fertile enabling environments. This will allow existing innovation into the space and provide opportunities for new ideas.The Council thus decided to create a guidebook, contained here, that explores major questions about how to bring the Fourth Industrial Revolution to infrastructure. The guidebook surveys some of the fundamental issues and provides robust frameworks that can help public- and private-sector decision-makers decide how to create the right enabling environments for their situations. It also contains case studies to help illustrate how public- and private-sector entities can work together to integrate exciting existing technologies into infrastructure and spur the creation of new innovations. Overall, the content illustrates three main imperatives: (1) The importance of focusing on community outcomes, not physical assets: It is tempting to define future infrastructure requirements in terms of specific assets: “this city needs light rail” or “we must expand our motorway” are some examples. Defining projects in terms of social outcomes, such as delivering affordable public mobility between specific points, leaves an opening forechnological innovation to deliver those outcomes. (2) The need to adopt a “flexible architecture” approach to infrastructure planning: The technological transformation of infrastructure can be accelerated by recognizing that, while technology-driven disruption cannot be predicted, it can be allowed for and positively leveraged. Planning traditional infrastructure with a more flexible architecture is a way of achieving this; it allows for change and innovation at the edges while protecting and extending the life of core elements. It also permits the use of policy frameworks to allow new innovations to move from idea to commercial success. (3) The necessity of recognizing and respecting infrastructure’s “data layer”: As the world moves into an era of ubiquitous sensors and an ever-connected internet of things, infrastructure assets will become data assets. These technologies offer great potential to increase the social and economic value of infrastructure assets through predictive maintenance, real-time optimization and peak demand management. Much like traditional infrastructure assets such as airports, utilities and community facilities, these data pools will become highly valuable and highly sensitive assets, requiring owners with the right character operating under the right oversight.For planners and policy-makers, there is potential for enhancing efficiency, value and user experience for the publics they serve. Infrastructure owners have the prospect of improving long-term viability, project development and asset management. Technology providers could develop new innovations, forging new partnerships and technologically transforming a new sector. Using this guidebook, decision-makers can begin the conversation on how technological innovation can be nurtured in infrastructure to continue to meet the callenges of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

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A Vision for a Sustainable Battery Value Chain in 2030

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, September 19, 2019
Abstract in English: 
The need for urgent and more intensive actions against climate change is broadly recognized. In support of this agenda, this report presents a simple yet profound vision: a circular, responsible and just battery value chain is one of the major near-term drivers to realize the 2C Paris Agreement goal in the transport and power sectors, setting course towards achieving the 1.5C goal if complemented with other technologies and collaborative efforts.
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A personal readout of the three ESPAS reports (2012, 2015 and 2019)

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, September 14, 2019
Abstract in English: 
In this summary, Dr Franck Debié outlines his views of the key findings of the three ESPAS reports (2012, 2015, 2019) on long-term trends to 2030 for the Ideas Network 2030.
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8
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