Transport

China has set new records in the ways, means and speed with which it has expanded its outposts in the South China Sea. Neighbouring states such as Vietnam have also extended their bases on small islands and reefs, but they have done so over many years and not within a few months. The total surface area created by China has been ironically dubbed “The Great Wall of Sand” by the commander of the US Pacific Fleet. Despite Beijing’s claims to the contrary, the expansions signal an emerging militarisation of the South China Sea, whose plentiful resources and energy deposits have long been viewed as potential causes of conflicts.

The South China Sea is currently one of the world’s most contentious zones. But the situation risks becoming even worse, despite the fact that all of the region’s states depend on stable and secure sea lines of communication. At its core, this is a regional conflict about sea routes, territorial claims and resources that primarily involves ASEAN states and China. Nevertheless, it also has global repercussions. First, it concerns a “superhighway of the sea”, on which almost a third of the world’s sea trade is transported. Any impediment to the shipping traffic would have a direct impact on world trade in general but also particularly on Japan and South Korea. Second, the South China Sea is closely connected to the rivalry between Bejing and Washington because important allies and partners of the US are involved in the dispute about China’s territorial claims. Third, it is a conflict about international norms and laws that calls into question a fundamental principle of the liberal world order: “freedom of the seas” versus exclusive maritime zones. This study addresses the main reasons, the development and the implications of the island dispute as well as ways of containing it both regionally and internationally.

Cities matter to the UK’s future. They are already concentrations of population and employment, and will be home to much of the country’s future population and economic growth. Cities are centres of commercial, cultural, institutional, and socia life. In short, they are both central to the shaping and delivery of national policy objectives, and the locations where broad social, environmental and economic changes play out in practice.
UK cities are highly diverse, each with a distinctive history and its own set of relationships with its neighbours and with central government.
This Foresight project has developed a broad evidence base and consulted local actors to understand challenges and opportunities from those most experienced in the issues affecting UK cities. The single theme which runs throughout this work is providing the best possible evidence for national and city level decision-makers.

The report highlights the emerging technologies and business models that are changing the way urban services are delivered and proposes a 10-step action plan to enable cities to navigate the journey of urban transformation.
Cities are growing at a rapid rate, with the global urban population set to increase by 2.5 billion by 2050. People continue to migrate to cities for better economic, social and creative opportunities. Growing cities are dense in terms of land use and, at the same time, are difficult to govern because of their diverse social and economic fabric.
While cities battle issues such as climate change, social segregation and economic development, they increasingly have to do so with fewer resources as they face budgetary constraints and battle with suboptimal devolution of funds and functions. City administrations are using emerging
business models and technologies to deliver services. The use of technology and changing ownership models have disrupted the way excess capacities within cities are efficiently utilized. However, technology is not a silver-bullet solution to urban problems. To holistically address such problems cities need to transform planning, governance and regulatory aspects.

Transport has been recognised by the ASEAN Leaders as the very basis of the ASEAN economic development and integration as it plays a crucial role in the movement of goods, services, capital and people. It also provides great support in binding ASEAN’s economies closer together and in building the ASEAN Economic Community that is so vital for the future of ASEAN nations.
The ASEAN Strategic Transport Plan / Brunei Action Plan (BAP), which was adopted by the Sixteenth ASEAN Transport Ministers (ATM) Meeting in November 2010, serves as the main reference guiding ASEAN transport cooperation and integration as well as identifies strategic actions to be implemented in the period 2011-2015. The BAP also supports the new priority of enhancing regional connectivity identified in the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC).

What might the future of mobility be in China in 2030? Mobility is defined as the ability to travel from one location to another, regardless of mode or purpose. RAND researchers, working with the Institute for Mobility Research, used a six-step process to develop two scenarios that address this question. The six steps are (1) select influencing areas (domains that affect mobility directly: demographics, economics, energy, and transportation supply and constraints); (2) elicit projections on descriptors (via expert workshops in Washington, D.C., and Beijing); (3) integrate these into scenario frameworks (using two analysis methods and a computer-based tool); (4) produce scenario narratives (based on the clusters produced by the tool); (5) draw qualitative consequences for future mobility; and (6) create a wild-card scenario (by looking at events that might disrupt trends).

Three key drivers differentiate the resulting scenarios: economic growth, the presence of constraints on vehicle ownership and driving, and environmental conditions. In scenario 1, the Great Reset, continued (albeit slightly slower than previous) economic growth fuels demand for automobiles, including hybrids, but cities also invest heavily in transit and nonmotorized infrastructure. Scenario 2, Slowing but Growing, assumes that the economy goes through a downturn marked by instability and that future growth in travel demand is lower than in the first scenario. By making potential long-term mobility futures more vivid, the aim is to help decisionmakers at different levels of government and in the private sector better anticipate and prepare for change.

Airbus’ Global Market Forecast for 2015-2034 offers a forward-looking view of the air transport sector’s evolution – accounting for factors such as demographic and economic growth, tourism trends, oil prices, development of new and existing routes, and ultimately highlighting demand for aircraft covering the full spectrum of sizes from 100 seats to the very largest aircraft like the A380.

Entitled “Flying by numbers” this new forecast – which serves as a reference for airlines, airports, investors, governments, non-government agencies and others – anticipates that air traffic will grow at 4.6 per cent annually, requiring some 32,600 new passenger and dedicated freighter aircraft at a value of US$4.9 trillion.

Connectivity is the high-level framework toward which many APEC work streams will focus their efforts. The Blueprint is a strategic guide for current and future initiatives that will bring the APEC region closer together to strengthen economic integration. Connectivity is an ambitious target for a diverse regional organization such as APEC, but it is precisely that ambition that will drive strong and tangible achievements. Connectivity will be important not only for governments and businesses, but also for the APEC community as a whole. By connecting APEC’s developed and emerging growth centers, the region’s quality of growth will improve, contributing to the Asia-Pacific’s economic prosperity and resilience.
The Blueprint contains existing connectivity-related initiatives, encourages reviving those initiatives that require further progress, and proposes creating future initiatives to lead APEC progress. The Blueprint is also broad in scope and adaptable to the ever-changing conditions in the Asia-Pacific.

The Growth Initiative working group, a working group seeking to strengthen long-term economic growth, proposes measures to boost productivity growth in Finland in the 2010s. In the long term, beyond the current economic cycle, growth in productivity will be the only driver of the nation’s average income growth or GDP per capita. In the short term, improving the employment rate is also important.
The Growth Initiative working group’s final report begins by providing a brief introduction to issues vital to productivity growth. It then presents the working group’s policy recommendations, divided under the following ten headings: 1) Science and innovation policy, 2) Education policy, 3) Life phase policy, 4) Competition policy, 5) Enterprise policy, 6) Public sector operating policy, 7) Public sector information system policy, 8) Public sector procurement policy and the general availability of publicly collected information, 9) Broadband network and intelligent transport policy and 10) Transport infrastructure policy.

This study starts with two essays laying the groundwork for the very idea of futures studies and future scenario forecasting. The first, by renowned futurist from the University of Hawaii, Professor James Allen Dator, introduces the discipline. In the second, respected futurist and business strategist Peter Schwartz describes the scenario planning context, process and application for business and policymakers.

This study aims to foster a dialogue about the future of logistics by describing a number of different scenarios, or pictures of the world, in 2050.

The challenge of resilience in a globalised world discusses the concept of resilience from different perspectives and the role of science in the continuous process of building a resilient, stable, competitive and prosperous Europe.

Resilience is a fundamental prerequisite for Europe as the largest integrated economic area in the world and has an important social dimension which requires the active cooperation of all stakeholders; citizens, the private sector, governments and NGOs included.