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Transport

The Future of Mobility Scenarios for China in 2030

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Tuesday, September 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
What might the future of mobility be in China in 2030? Mobility is defined as the ability to travel from one location to another, regardless of mode or purpose. RAND researchers, working with the Institute for Mobility Research, used a six-step process to develop two scenarios that address this question. The six steps are (1) select influencing areas (domains that affect mobility directly: demographics, economics, energy, and transportation supply and constraints); (2) elicit projections on descriptors (via expert workshops in Washington, D.C., and Beijing); (3) integrate these into scenario frameworks (using two analysis methods and a computer-based tool); (4) produce scenario narratives (based on the clusters produced by the tool); (5) draw qualitative consequences for future mobility; and (6) create a wild-card scenario (by looking at events that might disrupt trends).

Three key drivers differentiate the resulting scenarios: economic growth, the presence of constraints on vehicle ownership and driving, and environmental conditions. In scenario 1, the Great Reset, continued (albeit slightly slower than previous) economic growth fuels demand for automobiles, including hybrids, but cities also invest heavily in transit and nonmotorized infrastructure. Scenario 2, Slowing but Growing, assumes that the economy goes through a downturn marked by instability and that future growth in travel demand is lower than in the first scenario. By making potential long-term mobility futures more vivid, the aim is to help decisionmakers at different levels of government and in the private sector better anticipate and prepare for change.
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122
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Flying by numbers: Global Market Forecast for 2015-2034

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Tuesday, December 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
Airbus’ Global Market Forecast for 2015-2034 offers a forward-looking view of the air transport sector’s evolution – accounting for factors such as demographic and economic growth, tourism trends, oil prices, development of new and existing routes, and ultimately highlighting demand for aircraft covering the full spectrum of sizes from 100 seats to the very largest aircraft like the A380.

Entitled “Flying by numbers” this new forecast – which serves as a reference for airlines, airports, investors, governments, non-government agencies and others – anticipates that air traffic will grow at 4.6 per cent annually, requiring some 32,600 new passenger and dedicated freighter aircraft at a value of US$4.9 trillion.
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69
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APEC Connectivity Blueprint

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Publication date: 
Thursday, January 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
Connectivity is the high-level framework toward which many APEC work streams will focus their efforts. The Blueprint is a strategic guide for current and future initiatives that will bring the APEC region closer together to strengthen economic integration. Connectivity is an ambitious target for a diverse regional organization such as APEC, but it is precisely that ambition that will drive strong and tangible achievements. Connectivity will be important not only for governments and businesses, but also for the APEC community as a whole. By connecting APEC’s developed and emerging growth centers, the region’s quality of growth will improve, contributing to the Asia-Pacific’s economic prosperity and resilience.
The Blueprint contains existing connectivity-related initiatives, encourages reviving those initiatives that require further progress, and proposes creating future initiatives to lead APEC progress. The Blueprint is also broad in scope and adaptable to the ever-changing conditions in the Asia-Pacific.
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88
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Finland 2020 – From thought to action

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Friday, August 6, 2010
Abstract in English: 
The Growth Initiative working group, a working group seeking to strengthen long-term economic growth, proposes measures to boost productivity growth in Finland in the 2010s. In the long term, beyond the current economic cycle, growth in productivity will be the only driver of the nation’s average income growth or GDP per capita. In the short term, improving the employment rate is also important.
The Growth Initiative working group’s final report begins by providing a brief introduction to issues vital to productivity growth. It then presents the working group’s policy recommendations, divided under the following ten headings: 1) Science and innovation policy, 2) Education policy, 3) Life phase policy, 4) Competition policy, 5) Enterprise policy, 6) Public sector operating policy, 7) Public sector information system policy, 8) Public sector procurement policy and the general availability of publicly collected information, 9) Broadband network and intelligent transport policy and 10) Transport infrastructure policy.
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Number of pages: 
42
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Delivering Tomorrow: Logistics 2050

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Abstract in English: 
This study starts with two essays laying the groundwork for the very idea of futures studies and future scenario forecasting. The first, by renowned futurist from the University of Hawaii, Professor James Allen Dator, introduces the discipline. In the second, respected futurist and business strategist Peter Schwartz describes the scenario planning context, process and application for business and policymakers.

This study aims to foster a dialogue about the future of logistics by describing a number of different scenarios, or pictures of the world, in 2050.
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184
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The challenge of resilience in a globalised world

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Tuesday, October 20, 2015
Abstract in English: 
The challenge of resilience in a globalised world discusses the concept of resilience from different perspectives and the role of science in the continuous process of building a resilient, stable, competitive and prosperous Europe.

Resilience is a fundamental prerequisite for Europe as the largest integrated economic area in the world and has an important social dimension which requires the active cooperation of all stakeholders; citizens, the private sector, governments and NGOs included.
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76
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A Tale of Renewed Cities

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Publication date: 
Friday, November 1, 2013
Abstract in English: 
Global urban populations are growing rapidly – and with them, city transport volumes. Urban transport energy consumption is expected to double by 2050, despite ongoing vehicle technology and fuel-economy improvements. Annual global urban transport emissions are expected to more than double to nearly 1 billion annual tonnes of CO2 eq. by 2025. 90% of this growth in urban transport emissions is expected to come from private motorised travel.

The effects of growing travel demand and increasing shifts to private motorisation are leading to escalating roadway congestion that costs billions of dollars in wasted fuel and time. Moreover, motorised vehicle traffic has significant adverse effects on health, contributing substantially to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases from outdoor air pollution, and deteriorated safety in cities, leading to more than 1.3 million deaths per year from traffic accidents. Urgent policy attention to improve the energy efficiency of urban transport systems is thus needed not only for energy security reasons, but also to mitigate the negative climate, noise, air pollution, congestion and economic impacts of rising urban transport volumes and energy consumption.

This policy pathway highlights the holistic transport energy efficiency, city planning and traffic management approaches local and national leaders in Belgrade, New York City, Seoul and more than 30 other cities across Asia, Europe and the Americas are aggressively pursuing. Drawing on these “real-life” case studies, this pathway offers national and local decision makers concrete steps on how to plan, implement, monitor and evaluate key urban transport system policies in order to improve not only energy security, but also quality of life.
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98
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Mapping the Cost of Non-Europe, 2014 -19

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Publication date: 
Monday, April 13, 2015
Abstract in English: 
This study brings together work in progress on a long-term project to identify and analyse the 'cost of non-Europe' in a number of policy fields. This concept, first pioneered by the European Parliament in the 1980s, is used here to quantify the potential efficiency gains in today's European economy from pursuing a series of policy initiatives recently advocated by Parliament - from a wider and deeper digital single market to better coordinated national and European policies for defence and development. The benefits may be measured principally in additional GDP generated or a more rational use of public resources. The latest analysis suggests that the European economy could be boosted by almost 1.6 trillion euro per year - or 12 per cent of EU-28 GDP (2014) - by such measures over time. The study is intended as a contribution to the on-going discussion about the European Union’s policy priorities over the current five-year institutional cycle, from 2014 to 2019.
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88
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An initial assessment of territorial forward planning/foresight projects in the European Union

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Abstract in English: 
Territorial foresight is a structured set of participatory vision building and strategic planning activities that allow regions to think, consider, debate and shape the medium to long-term future of their regions, provinces or cities. Many of the key process elements of foresight are widely used in strategic planning – the formation of expert panels, the use of socio-economic and environmental data consultation, brainstorming, trend and extrapolation and the setting of strategic goals. Foresight, unlike most approaches to strategic planning, deals with long-term prospects, and draws upon the views of multiple stakeholders.
This report analyses the interactions between European strategies and policies, and the activities of the analysed territorial foresights, in order to assess the potential opportunity to create a territorial foresight network or platform at the European level.
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450
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Urban Governance in the EU - Current Challenges and Future Prospects

Title Original Language: 
Urban Governance in the EU - Current Challenges and Future Prospects
Abstract Original Language: 
The quality of territorial foresight and, in particular, of urban foresight, is nowadays measured not so much in terms of the ability to anticipate possible futures, always challenged by the increasing uncertainty and the exponential rate of change, as in terms of the ability to construct collective visions of the future that are ambitious, proactive and engaging for stakeholders and citizens.
What foresight has to offer is its capacity to approach both long-term challenges, perceived in the present, as well as shared aims and values in a distant horizon. This publication attempts to address these challenges by ‘imagineering’ the future of cities though the application of methods and techniques drawn
from the strategic foresight and prediction fields in a systematic, rigorous and holistic way.
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Abstract in English: 
The quality of territorial foresight and, in particular, of urban foresight, is nowadays measured not so much in terms of the ability to anticipate possible futures, always challenged by the increasing uncertainty and the exponential rate of change, as in terms of the ability to construct collective visions of the future that are ambitious, proactive and engaging for stakeholders and citizens.
What foresight has to offer is its capacity to approach both long-term challenges, perceived in the present, as well as shared aims and values in a distant horizon. This publication attempts to address these challenges by ‘imagineering’ the future of cities though the application of methods and techniques drawn from the strategic foresight and prediction fields in a systematic, rigorous and holistic way.
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Number of pages: 
199
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