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The MENA Region: A Great Power Competition

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The MENA Region: A Great Power Competition
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Publication date: 
Monday, October 7, 2019
Abstract in English: 
The MENA Region: A Great Power Competition volume deals with competition among regional and external players for the redistribution of power and international status in the Middle East and North Africa, focusing on Russia’s renewed role and the implications for US interests. Over the last few years, a crisis of legitimacy has beset the liberal international order. In the context of global reassessment, the configuration of regional orders has come into question, illustrated by the current collapse in the Middle East. The idea of a ‘Russian resurgence’ in the Middle East set against a perceived American withdrawal has captured the attention of policymakers and scholars alike, warranting further examination. This volume gathers analysis on the policy choices pursued by Washington and Moscow in the MENA region and develops case studies of the two powers’ policies in the countries beset by major crises. The volume was compiled and edited by Arturo Varvelli, Karim Mezran, and Emily Burchfield and features analysis from Andrey Chuprygin, Abbas Kadhim, Mark N. Katz, Andrey Kortunov, Scott Lasensky, Chiara Lovotti, Vera Michlin-Shapir, Nicola Pedde, Omer Taspinar, Gonul Tol, and William Wechsler.
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Reenergizing Transatlantic Space - Cooperation Opportunities in Security & Beyond

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Reenergizing Transatlantic Space - Cooperation Opportunities in Security & Beyond
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, October 1, 2019
Abstract in English: 
It is time for the United States and Europe to take a fresh look at enhancing and expanding cooperation in space security. Together, the transatlantic Alliance needs to recognize and address challenges to space assurance, and take full advantage of the many changes sweeping the space industry. In Reenergizing transatlantic space cooperation: Opportunities in security and beyond, Stephen Ganote lays out concrete steps for how leaders on both sides of the Atlantic should focus on three key areas, including: a) increasing space resiliency through better information sharing and system interoperability; b) improving space operations through better training and updated doctrine; c) strengthening the space supply chain through improved regulations and industrial cooperation. While not easy, coordinated US-European action in these areas will help ensure that space assets will be able to address the growing security threats faced by the transatlantic Alliance.
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Alternate Cybersecurity Futures

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Alternate Cybersecurity Futures
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Publication date: 
Friday, September 6, 2019
Abstract in English: 
While cyberspace continues to enable tremendous commercial, humanitarian, and national security opportunities, it also breeds an expanded threat landscape of massive complexity. As innovation and new vulnerabilities emerge apace, responses to novel problems have remained reactive. A joint report by the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security’s Cyber Statecraft Initiative and Emergent Futures Lab challenges this moribund thinking by developing three Alternate Cybersecurity Futures, scenarios to provide insight into what the future may look like and how policy can move from adaptation to critically urgent evolution. These futures are meant to spark a strategic dialogue and we hope others will expand upon and between them.
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A Vision for a Sustainable Battery Value Chain in 2030

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Thursday, September 19, 2019
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The need for urgent and more intensive actions against climate change is broadly recognized. In support of this agenda, this report presents a simple yet profound vision: a circular, responsible and just battery value chain is one of the major near-term drivers to realize the 2C Paris Agreement goal in the transport and power sectors, setting course towards achieving the 1.5C goal if complemented with other technologies and collaborative efforts.
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Global Trends to 2030: New Ways out of Poverty and Exclusion

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Wednesday, January 9, 2019
Abstract in English: 
This paper analyses the issues of poverty and exclusion in the context of the major trends that characterise the present and will shape the near future. It also explores the uncertainty that emerging trends may pose for EU societies in terms of poverty and exclusion, and looks at options and alternative paths to counteract these two phenomena.
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20
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The Future of Warfare (ESPAS Ideas Paper)

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The Future of Warfare (ESPAS Ideas Paper)
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, September 20, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Warfare is shaped by geopolitical, societal, technological, economic and military trends:
Geopolitical: The multipolar relations between ever bigger political entities with overlapping spheres of influences are defined by surpise and uncertainty. Smaller political entities will be weaker and proxy wars more common in the future. Detterence will be reinterpreted, vulnerable states more prone to aquire nuclear weapons and international norms weakened. Megacities will be central battlefields that leave ground forces vulnerable.
Social: Warfare will shift to the internet, it will be uncontrollably ‘open-source’, live and shocking, with ever more spectacular terror. Armies will be more network-centred, waging more personalised wars and will have to find new ways to interact with democratic societies. Women in combat and the disappearance of world war veterans change the way people think about war.
Technological: Mankind becomes more powerful over time, with non-state actors possessing capabilities currently restricted to super-powers. It will struggle to outlaw technological advances and wage war without violence. The West will lose its technological superiority and will have even bigger problems in knowing how and what to research. Both inferior and highly developed armies will develop new ways of engaging the enemy. Artificial intelligence (AI) will mean that democratic armies have to balance the ‘human in the loop’ policy against effectiveness.
Economic: The economy of the opponent will be a bigger target than in the past, with commercial and dual-goods becoming more important, and the environment a more widely used weapon.
Military: Possible future military situations will be more diverse then ever. Western armies will be vulnerable to cheap weaponry. The idea that wars will be easy to win will make the world more dangerous.
Key uncertainties are China, the cyber-dimension, robotics, autonomous systems and artificial intelligence, paradigmatic breakthroughs such as quantum computing, general AI and anti-ballistic systems, nuclear detterence and nuclear bargaining. Ten key questions for policy-makers focus on strategic autonomy, adaptation, balancing reserves, R&D, cooperation and export, interventions, China, weakening norms, anticipation, communication and procurement.
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Sharing adaptation information across Europe

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, June 6, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The European Commission and the European Environment Agency (EEA) launched the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT) in 2012. Its aim is to provide a common European knowledge base to support the target audience of governmental organisations and those supporting them in developing and implementing climate change adaptation strategies and actions, complementary to adaptation platforms at other levels of governance. The need for such a platform was recognised in the 2013 EU strategy on adaptation to climate change or adaptation strategy, which is being evaluated by the European Commission in 2017-2018, as a key element of better informed decision-making that should be developed further. The objectives of Climate-ADAPT are: to facilitate the collection, sharing and use of information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, and build a consistent and updated knowledge base; to assist the effective uptake of the relevant knowledge by decision-makers; and to contribute to a greater level of coordination among sectors and institutional levels.
Climate-ADAPT is facing a twofold challenge. Firstly, stakeholder demands vary at each governance level related to the specific tasks of decision-makers and have evolved over time. Secondly, the wide range of EU and nationally funded projects, as well as practical experience of adaptation, have significantly enhanced the amount and diversity of adaptation knowledge in Europe to be shared. Furthermore, many other relevant European knowledge platforms have emerged, including those on climate services, biodiversity and ecosystem services, and disaster risk reduction.
This report provides an evaluation of the fulfilment of the Climate-ADAPT objectives. The evaluation was carried out by the EEA as a process evaluation with a focus on learning. It focuses on the three objectives
of the platform mentioned above. The lessons learned from the Climate-ADAPT evaluation may also be of use for other thematic platforms maintained by the EEA, such as those on biodiversity and water, and for climate change adaptation platforms at national and transnational levels.
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72
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Public Infrastructure in the Western Balkans : Opportunities and Challenges

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Tuesday, April 17, 2018
Abstract in English: 
An assessment of public infrastructure development in the Western Balkans. The paper quantifies the large gaps across various sectors/dimensions, evaluates current infrastructure plans, and discusses funding options available to countries in the region. The paper also identifies important bottlenecks for increased infrastructure investment. Finally, the paper quantifies potential growth benefits from addressing infrastructure gaps, concluding that boosting the quantity and quality of infrastructure is vital for raising economic growth and accelerating income convergence with the EU. The paper concludes with country-specific policy recommendations.
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71
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Recasting EU civilian crisis management

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Wednesday, March 1, 2017
Abstract in English: 
This Report explores how EU civilian crisis management (CCM) has evolved over the past decade, showing how the concept and activity have been transformed by changes in the international security environment as well as in the EU’s institutional setting. Security challenges such as organised crime, illegal migration or terrorism have made the traditional divide between internal and external security increasingly irrelevant. New types of CCM actors have thus emerged, in the field of Justice and Home Affairs in particular, that have de facto embraced crisis management in response to new threats. This publication seeks to identify the challenges as well as the opportunities that these changes present for CCM, and examines inter alia how EU CCM actors and policies have adapted to the new environment and how they can best serve the Union’s strategic priorities as identified by the EU Global Strategy.
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91
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Securing the Energy Union: five pillars and five regions

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, March 29, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Two years after the EU formally launched its strategy for an Energy Union, this Report examines the energy challenges facing the different regions of Europe, investigating shared priorities and common projects, as well as barriers to integration and cooperation. A series of chapters devoted to distinct regions examines what role the Energy Union can play to help address their energy challenges, including those related to energy security and relations with external suppliers. The Report also looks at efforts to push forward with the construction of the Energy Union via regional initiatives, including some that reach beyond the borders of the EU. Such initiatives have shown how progress on all five pillars of the Energy Union is important for the energy security of the EU and how progress need not be uniform across Europe. Notably, the deepening and interconnection of energy markets – nationally, regionally, within the EU, and beyond its borders – are central to this process
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