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This book analyses the structural and short-term causes of Latin America´s crisis and build scenarios of alternative post-pandemic trajectories. The authors show that the optimal scenario requires a Great Turn of fundamental transformations to build full democratic governance and move towards a sustainable future.
By Sergio BITAR, Jorge Máttar, Javier Medina.

Public policy in Latin America suffers from a lack of long term perspective. This inevitably limits the ability to seize opportunities or contain risks that present themselves. This publication analyses six major global tendencies that have been identified by leading prospective institutions. Various scenarios are used to explore the potential effect of these tendencies on five goals previously identified by governments, political and social leaders, and experts on Latin America. Particular attention is paid to the themes of governance, inequality, productivity, integration and international alliances, sustainable development and climate change. Subsequently, areas that require a more continuous monitoring are identified with reference to existing methodologies in other countries.

By 2033, the global geopolitical scene will have radically changed. Both economically and politically, western powers will have lost their prominence in favour of new regional blocks. These rising poles will compete among themselves and are likely to protect their own markets; after a while they will become sources of direct investment.

Latin America must strengthen its ability to plan forward and deepen its strategic reflection if it is to govern better and improve the design of public policies.
Achieving this may require countries in the region to familiarize themselves with global scenarios and to explore the types and scale of challenges that they might confront. A national perspective is not sufficient, a global vision is essential. Globalization creates a stream of effects that cannot be controlled by individual countries. With an outlook that takes into consideration the rest of the world, Latin American governments could improve their capacity to anticipate events and, when those events occur, to effectively respond to uncertainty and rapid change. Through strategic planning that envisions a myriad of diverse situations, countries of the region may be able to skirt damage or even identify advantageous responses. In effect, human action might alter trajectories in ways that could bring the region closer to desirable outcomes. In this study, Sergio Bitar sets out to explore the nature and potential impact of trends and scenarios that could emerge and he makes recommendations for building anticipatory capacity. The first part of this report summarizes the global trends and scenarios [...] the scenarios are based on reports from leading research centers in developed countries. In the second part, he identifies
where Latin America—both individual countries and the region as a whole—should focus. He then underscores the fields in which countries of the region should strengthen their capacity for foresight study.